Energy is my highest conviction idea. AIA Weekly Report 5.31.25

Energy, and oil in particular, is my highest conviction idea currently. The oil curve is backwardated, the market is tight, and energy stocks are absurdly cheap. US producers have learned from the excesses of their shale boom: they are lean, profitable, and shareholder-friendly. Oil is the only commodity to price in a 2025 recession, but global growth could surprise to the upside.