S3E1 - Why Rationality Was Always Conditional

Welcome to The Deep Dive. In this episode we unravel why perfectly logical systems can still fail when their assumptions clash with the messy, adaptive real world. We trace the arc from classical models of rationality (homo economicus, expected utility, and Bayesian coherence) through Kahneman and Tversky’s discovery of systematic cognitive biases and prospect theory, to Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality and satisficing, and Gerd Gigerenzer’s ecological rationality. We also cover Steven Pinker’s defense of human rational capacity and the tension between individual goals and the public truth-seeking commons.

Through stories—like a revenue-optimizing airline algorithm that backfires—we highlight five practical checks for testing any model or decision: clarify goals and values; expose information and knowledge limits; account for resource constraints; anticipate dynamic reactions and feedback; and assess risk tolerance and downside costs. By the end listeners will have a short, actionable assumption-audit checklist to make their reasoning more robust and context-aware.