Marc Chandler - A Macro Deep Dive: Jobs Data, Fed Policy, Global Currency Moves

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we welcome back Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market blog, for a comprehensive breakdown of the U.S. jobs report, Fed policy trajectory, global central bank trends, and FX market implications.

We kick off with May’s mixed U.S. employment report: headline job growth surprised to the upside, but revisions and the household survey painted a weaker picture. Marc explains how the Fed will likely interpret this as confirmation to remain patient, with expectations for rate cuts shifting to Q4 and markets increasingly skeptical about more than one cut in 2025.

Marc also discusses:

• Why the resilient U.S. labor market and gradual disinflation keep the Fed sidelined
• How ongoing tariff announcements are distorting GDP and trade data
• What to watch in the Fed's balance sheet strategy and whether QT will continue
• A global view on divergent central bank cycles, FX implications, and why Marc remains medium-term bearish on the U.S. dollar
• The role of liquidity and uncertainty in driving volatile but not collapsing markets

As we near the midpoint of 2025, Marc outlines the key data points and global risks that could move the needle on Fed policy, including inflation trends, unemployment, and fiscal disruptions from trade policies.

🔗 Visit Marc’s blog: Marc to Market