Panel 3: What Lies Ahead?

The war in Gaza triggered by Hamas’ attacks on Israel in October 2023 sparked several massive aftershocks that have redrawn the geopolitical map of the Middle East. After decimating Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces went on to effectively neuter Hezbollah in Lebanon, depriving Iran of its most potent forward threat to Israel. The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria last December further weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance. With Iran at its most vulnerable in decades, Israel took the fight to the Islamic Republic in a 12-day offensive in June that left its chief regional foe reeling.

The aftermath of the violence has significantly altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel has emerged as the primary security power in the region, Iran has seen its influence evaporate, and other countries are calibrating their responses to the new reality. How do Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf, which have only recently moved to détente with Iran, respond to Israel’s rise in tandem?

The Middle East Institute’s Annual Conference 2025 unpacked the effects of a re-ordered region on the rest of the world via three panels staffed with experts. These panels examined the impact of the far-reaching changes brought about by almost two years of war.

 

Panel 3: What Lies Ahead?

This concluding panel looked ahead and attempted to divine future trends, including how the Gaza war will end, and the repercussions of changes on Singapore.

 

Get Ready to Dive Deeper than the Discussion. 

 

Asaad Alshamlan argued that the Middle East cannot be explained by a single grand narrative, highlighting four forces—Gulf–Arab disparities, state fragility, US–China rivalry, and the unresolved Palestinian question—which shape the region’s complex landscape. This MEI Persepectives article builds upon his arguments - read here.

 

Based on the insights he delivered at the event, Mohammed Baharoon unpacks how regional powers, global actors, and non-state players are fueling a revival of old imperial ambitions while introducing new, economy-driven “quantum politics” in the Middle East - read the full piece here.