Lead Story: Modeling the Evolution of the US Opioid Crisis for National Policy Development

Lead Story: Modeling the Evolution of the US Opioid Crisis for National Policy Development 🔓

From: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Delays between enaction of policy and data about the impact of the policy on drug-use behavior, as well as the complexity of other factors that influence drug-use behaviors, can make policy decision making difficult. To assist policy makers, the authors created a model utilizing data between 1999 and 2020 to understand historical use patterns and to project future scenarios. In testing, the model was able to closely replicate historical trajectories and had good model fit for various scenarios. While the model has some limitations -- notably it does not address co-occurring stimulant use -- it does potentially provide a resource for policy makers in projecting future use patterns and policy analysis. 

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