Polling Matters - Ep. 73 US SPECIAL: Clinton’s health, Ohio, Debates, Mr Brexit & Trump’s problem with women

On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast we focus on the US presidential race. Keiran is joined by Steven Shepard, chief polling analyst at Politico in the U.S. and Federica Cocco, statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. 

The show is split into two conversations, the first between Keiran and Steven and the second between Keiran and Federica.

Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.

Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.

Follow today’s guests on twitter:

Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley

Steven Shepard @POLITICO_Steve

Federica Cocco @federicacocco