Polling Matters - Episode 139 How long will Trump last (and who will run against him)? Plus, how does public opinion on Brexit look ahead of party conference season?

Polling Matters returns for an extended episode exploring the latest goings-on in Washington DC and what a recent avalanche of Brexit related polling tells us about public opinion as we head into a crucial party conference season.

In part one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at Trump's approval rating and what that says about his prospects for re-election and the GOP's prospects in the upcoming midterms. Keiran and Leo also look in-depth at the potential Democratic candidates to face him in 2020, with a special focus on Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as they compete for the right to lead the Democrat's progressive wing.

In part two, Keiran and Leo examine a range of recent polls that present conflicting messages about the state of public opinion on Brexit. Keiran argues that polling on the outcome of a second referendum is useless at this stage, Leo looks at whether support for a second vote is increasing and both Keiran and Leo have a few choice words for a recent article in The Mirror suggesting that 4 million people are prepared to vote Labour if Corbyn is clearer on their Brexit policy. Finally, the pair examine what the numbers mean for Brexit in practical terms as we enter a busy party conference season.

Follow this week's guests:

@Leobarasi

@Keiranpedley

Got a question for the Polling Matters team? Why not message Keiran or Leo on twitter?