Feeling particularly reflective as the US electoral process inches toward a conclusion, Allan and Darren chat about what they see as the short- and long-term challenges facing Australian foreign policy. In the short term, the bilateral relationship with China looms largest. Allan makes that case that the Prime Minister (or Foreign Minister) should make a speech clearly outlining Australia’s position, while Darren wonders whether the PM has already said what he wants to say. And what specific diplomatic moves available to the government? Darren offers some thoughts on whether the ongoing trade disruptions are simply coercion, or whether other geoeconomic or industry policy motives may be a factor. The two also debate the distinction between “the Chinese government” and “the CCP”, and compare it to distinguishing the Trump administration from the United States as a whole.
The other major short-term issue discussed is cooperation with Australia’s regional partners, Southeast Asia in particular. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may offer an opportunity for Australia to develop deeper ties, though Darren raises whether shared security interests are a necessary condition for really substantive cooperation. He also speculates on whether Australia’s experience with economic coercion and protecting against foreign interference could be a useful source of advice, while Allan counters that Asian nations have been grappling with these questions for decades, even centuries! Allan also previews PM Morrison’s trip to Japan this week.
Looking to the longer term, Allan and Darren describe a range of possible futures, the kinds of investment strategies Australia could pursue now to prepare for future challenges, and potential risks to a long-term strategy.
We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant Links
PM Lee Hsien Loong gave the keynote address at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue Opening Dinner on 31 May 2019 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019
Lee Hsien Loong, “The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century
Stephen Dziedzic, “Scott Morrison unveils Government plans to reassert Australia's influence in South-East Asia”, ABC News, 14 November 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-14/australia-canberra-new-aid-south-east-asia-scott-morrison/12883088
Joe Biden, “Why American must lead again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again
Government of Victoria, “Victorian Pledge For Institute Of Infectious Disease”, 13 November 2020: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-pledge-institute-infectious-disease
Tim Alberta, “Elissa Slotkin Braces for a Democratic Civil War”, 13 November 2020: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301
David French, Divided we fall: America’s secession threat and how to restore our nation”, Pan Macmillan Australia: https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781250201973/
Ezra Klein podcast interview with Evan Osnos, “Joe Biden, explained”, 7 November 2020: https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast/2020/11/7/21554198/joe-biden-evan-osnos-president-2020-election-white-house-donald-trump
Little Red Podcast, “Xi Dada and Daddy: Power, the Party and the President”, 2 November 2020: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/xi-dada-and-daddy-power-the-party-and-the-presiden?in_playlist=the-little-red-podcast!podcast
“P.E. with Joe”, Monday 23 March 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz0go1pTda8
Ep. 67: NZ-China-Australia; Myanmar; Xi's WEF speech; Australia-Malaysia CSP
Ep. 66: Revisiting the Capitol; a declassified Indo-Pacific strategy; Five Countries (!), & fresh ideas for Aussie FP?
Ep. 65: Processing events at the U.S. Capitol
Ep. 64: A cabinet reshuffle, politician ambassadors, the Richardson Review and summer homework
Ep. 63: Climate change and Australia, with Howard Bamsey
Ep. 62: A wild week in Australia-China relations
Ep. 60: US election rapid reactions
Ep. 59: Malabar and an emerging balancing coalition; Senator Abetz and loyalty tests; diplomacy and quarantine
Ep. 58: Mailbag! US failures; fearing abandonment; the Quad & democracy; grading China policy; DFAT in 2050
Ep. 57: Foreign interference & the Australia-China relationship; trilaterals; PM Suga; Thai protests
Ep. 56: Aussie journalists depart China (and other bilateral tensions); Foreign Relations Bill; Abe’s legacy; Tony Abbott
Ep. 55: Richard Maude returns (Part 2): China, models of cooperation, & what Australian foreign policy can do
Ep. 54: Richard Maude returns (Part 1), and Darren in the Beirut Blast
Ep. 53: Consulate closures & deteriorating US-China relations; AUSMIN; Defence Strategic Update
Ep. 52: ABC journalist Stephen Dziedzic on reporting Australian foreign policy, media-govt relations, and the Wolverines
Ep 51: Lowy Poll 2020; India-China; DFAT's travel advice for China; Allan's brush with tabloid fame
Frances Adamson, DFAT Secretary, on our 50th episode
Ep. 49: US turmoil; India CSP; G-7; WHO lessons; HK; Australian geoeconomics
Ep. 48: Harinder Sidhu, former High Commissioner to India, on the Australia-India relationship
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