Feeling particularly reflective as the US electoral process inches toward a conclusion, Allan and Darren chat about what they see as the short- and long-term challenges facing Australian foreign policy. In the short term, the bilateral relationship with China looms largest. Allan makes that case that the Prime Minister (or Foreign Minister) should make a speech clearly outlining Australia’s position, while Darren wonders whether the PM has already said what he wants to say. And what specific diplomatic moves available to the government? Darren offers some thoughts on whether the ongoing trade disruptions are simply coercion, or whether other geoeconomic or industry policy motives may be a factor. The two also debate the distinction between “the Chinese government” and “the CCP”, and compare it to distinguishing the Trump administration from the United States as a whole.
The other major short-term issue discussed is cooperation with Australia’s regional partners, Southeast Asia in particular. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may offer an opportunity for Australia to develop deeper ties, though Darren raises whether shared security interests are a necessary condition for really substantive cooperation. He also speculates on whether Australia’s experience with economic coercion and protecting against foreign interference could be a useful source of advice, while Allan counters that Asian nations have been grappling with these questions for decades, even centuries! Allan also previews PM Morrison’s trip to Japan this week.
Looking to the longer term, Allan and Darren describe a range of possible futures, the kinds of investment strategies Australia could pursue now to prepare for future challenges, and potential risks to a long-term strategy.
We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant Links
PM Lee Hsien Loong gave the keynote address at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue Opening Dinner on 31 May 2019 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019
Lee Hsien Loong, “The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century
Stephen Dziedzic, “Scott Morrison unveils Government plans to reassert Australia's influence in South-East Asia”, ABC News, 14 November 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-14/australia-canberra-new-aid-south-east-asia-scott-morrison/12883088
Joe Biden, “Why American must lead again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again
Government of Victoria, “Victorian Pledge For Institute Of Infectious Disease”, 13 November 2020: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-pledge-institute-infectious-disease
Tim Alberta, “Elissa Slotkin Braces for a Democratic Civil War”, 13 November 2020: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301
David French, Divided we fall: America’s secession threat and how to restore our nation”, Pan Macmillan Australia: https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781250201973/
Ezra Klein podcast interview with Evan Osnos, “Joe Biden, explained”, 7 November 2020: https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast/2020/11/7/21554198/joe-biden-evan-osnos-president-2020-election-white-house-donald-trump
Little Red Podcast, “Xi Dada and Daddy: Power, the Party and the President”, 2 November 2020: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/xi-dada-and-daddy-power-the-party-and-the-presiden?in_playlist=the-little-red-podcast!podcast
“P.E. with Joe”, Monday 23 March 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz0go1pTda8
Ep. 27: Clare Walsh, DFAT Deputy Secretary on multilateralism, aid and development
Ep. 26: AUSMIN; Hastie op-ed; HK protests in Australia; Pacific Islands Forum
Ep. 25: David Gruen, Australia’s G20 Sherpa
Ep. 24: Director-General of ASIS in his first ever interview
Ep. 23: Morrison’s Asialink-Bloomberg speech; Lowy Poll; G20
Ep. 22: Hong Kong protests; Shangri-La Dialogue; US-Iran tensions
Ep. 21: Interview with Rebecca Skinner, Associate Secretary at Defence
Ep. 20: Huawei and decoupling; PNG; four elections; new ambassadors; Bob Hawke
Ep. 19: An incoming government brief: What will the election winner face in the new term?
Ep. 18: Terrorism and counter-terrorism in the wake of the Sri Lanka attacks
Ep. 17: Geoeconomics; Australia’s consular operations
Ep. 16: Brexit, more Brexit, & new funding for Australia-China relations
Ep. 15: Towards reinvigorating Australian foreign policy studies (LIVE @ ANU)
Ep. 14: North Korea after Hanoi; India-Pakistan crisis deescalates; Indonesian FTA
Ep. 13: Five eyes and 5G infrastructure; problems for Aussie coal
Ep. 12: What we learned from 2018, looking ahead to 2019
Ep. 11: Dennis Richardson
Ep. 10: ASPI’s Danielle Cave and Tom Uren on “cyber”
Ep. 9: US-China rivalry through the lens of regional summitry
Ep. 8: Australian foreign policy speeches, China and Australia's South Pacific pivot/balance, Victoria on the Belt and Road, US midterms and Brazil’s new president
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