Turkey’s election outlook: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for 14 May, with a possible second round for the latter on 28 May, will be unlike any before and is now top of mind across the emerging markets complex. The opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is leading in the majority of polls, but uncertainty abounds.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that the magnitude of Turkey’s imbalances – high inflation, large external shortfalls, depleted central bank reserves – require a period of adjustment irrespective of the election outcome. He views that it would be challenging for the next government to navigate the post-election period without a credible, coherent and co-ordinated economic programme aimed at promoting macro-financial stability and establishing a more rule-based policy environment.

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