Ep. 109 - Bill Swelbar, Chief Industry Strategist with Delta Airport Consultants

“Carriers are burning let’s call it $25 million a day. We need to get from a cash negative perspective to a cash neutral to a cash positive, then we can talk about profitability. So, I think we’re really three or four years away.”

Initially, Delta Airport Consultants’ research indicated the possibility that by the end of 2019, traffic could be back as high as 40 percent of 2019 levels. The recent second-wave of COVID-19 cases around the U.S., however, and the accompanying announcement by several carriers that they would shrink capacity after Labor Day, indicate a slower recovery, with regional air service likely to experience the greatest suffering. A slow return to flying by businesses and ongoing restrictions on international travel also represent a drag on a potential recovery, meaning it’s likely three or four years or more before traffic even approaches the record year that 2019 was for many airports.