“The Global Financial Markets in 2023 and Beyond”, Ron William, RW Advisory

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.

Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.

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In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Turning next to the main government bond markets, he discusses the macro impact of the longer-term generational trends in three key areas: demographics, the labour market and resources. He also points out that there is likely to be increasing volatility in the short term, but eventually both the US 10-year Treasury yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield are expected to reach new highs for this cycle.

With respect to the leading stock markets, the US S&P 500 Index has been stronger-than-expected in the first half of this year. However, Ron indicates that the chart is now at a make-or-break level, with other market factors pointing ahead to an asymmetric downside mean reversion risk later this year or in early 2024. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 7,700 trading range that has been established for most of the last three years, but given its components, various headwinds suggest that it is in danger of diverging lower. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and he highlights the attractiveness of various Asian markets. In addition, he discusses the performance of various commodities this year and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.

RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by Ron's proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.