Equity Strategy: Sector and Style leadership ahead of rate cuts

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy

In this report, we focus on two topics: first, at sector level on the Cyclicals vs Defensives performance into rate cuts and against the backdrop of falling bond yields, and at the style level on the performance of Large vs Small caps. Historically, Defensives and bond proxies struggled when bond yields would be moving higher. This phase might be ending. Especially if bond yields are falling as economic growth is moderating, the sector leadership is likely to be more Defensively tilted, as is the case so far in Q2. Additional considerations are: valuations – Cyclicals are generally trading stretched vs Defensives; past performance – the Cyclical run over the last 18 months has opened up a gap with PMIs, which has not closed yet; and finally the weaker recent earnings delivery of Cyclical vs Defensive sectors. We favour a barbell of Defensives and Commodities. With respect to Small vs Large caps style tilts, there is a typical pattern of weakness in Small caps into, and a rebound post, the start of central banks easing. This is visible for both the Eurozone and UK small caps. For the US Small vs Large caps, the weakness into the first Fed cut is seen too, but there was no imminent rebound, more a weaker performance for another six months or so, and only then a recovery. Additional consideration for small caps trade is likely the domestic economic backdrop. Here, European growth had a reset last year, and is looking sequentially better this year, while US was resilient last year, but could soften from here. Small caps have had two poor years everywhere, and are lagging again so far ytd, by 9% in the US, 4% in Eurozone, 2% in UK and 8% in Japan – the turn might be upon us, likely more in Europe than in the US, though, given less visibility over Fed start and softer forward activity momentum in the US.

This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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