Market Movers: Trade Winds and Tariff Tides

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1152. Hey there, Spy Traders! It's your pal Wally Pip, coming to you live from my sound booth, which today is my laundry room. It's 6 am on Friday, May 9th, 2025, Pacific time, and let's dive into what's moving the markets this lovely morning! So the big news: The US stock market has been all over the place this year, but it's recently shown some serious bounceback, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up a nice percentage over the last couple of weeks. We're seeing a 'riskon' mentality, meaning investors are feeling a bit more confident. Why was the stock market so happy after the jobs report? Because it felt like it had finally found a job with some stability! But seriously, the markets closed higher on Friday because job gains for April beat expectations, and that's making everyone happy. Diving deeper, the tech sector is looking strong. Diversification is key, with wider earnings growth expected to even things out across different sectors. However, those sweeping tariffs from April 2025 have shifted all sector ratings to 'Marketperform', so keep that in mind. Speaking of global stuff, this new USUK trade deal is definitely boosting market vibes, with President Trump talking it up big time. Plus, there's talk of easing tariffs on China, but that depends on how these upcoming trade talks go. On the macro front, while the US economy is still expected to grow this year, the rate is slowing down compared to previous years. Inflation could be on the rise because of those higher tariffs, and the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates twice in the second half of the year. Unemployment is expected to creep up a bit as things slow down. Earnings season is in full swing, and most companies are beating expectations. However, the guidance for the next quarter is looking a little shaky due to worries about consumer spending and trade issues. So, what does all this mean for you? First, keep an eye on trade and tariffs, as they're a big question mark for the economy. Consumers might start tightening their belts, so watch out for that. Now, my recommendations: Given the market's ups and downs, diversification is your best friend. Also, stay glued to those trade talks and tariff policies – they can change the game fast. Focus on the fundamentals, like company earnings and economic data. And with the potential for slower growth and higher unemployment, consider adding some defensive sectors to your portfolio. So that is it for today folks, this is not investment advice. Stay informed and do your homework. Wally Pip, signing off! See you in a few!