The magnitude of stimulus being applied to the U.S. economy since the onset of the pandemic has been jaw dropping and dwarfs what was experienced during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) between 2008-10.
This matters profoundly for emerging markets. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), believes that the central question for emerging markets lies in whether the sheer velocity of stimulus being put in place in the U.S. causes overheating or not.
Whether inflation remains low and well behaved, alongside any further rise in US bond yields, will be critical to gauge which emerging markets stand to gain and which will underperform.
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