Hiring Slumps to Lowest Levels Since 2009 as Economists Rely on Alternative Labor Data Amid Shutdown

In September 2025, U.S. hiring slowed sharply, reaching its lowest levels since 2009, while layoffs remained relatively steady. With the federal government shutdown delaying official labor data, economists are relying on alternative sources such as the Chicago Federal Reserve and Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The Chicago Fed’s dashboard shows unemployment holding at 4.34%, layoffs steady at 2.1%, and hiring dipping to 45.2%. Challenger reports that planned furloughs through the first three quarters of 2025 reached nearly 946,426, up 24% from 2024, while new hires totaled only 204,939—a 58% drop year-over-year.

These figures indicate a labor market where companies are cautious about expansion, creating fewer new jobs despite stable unemployment. Economists warn that prolonged shutdowns and delayed official reporting could complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments. The decline in hiring could impact wage growth, consumer spending, and overall economic momentum, signaling potential headwinds for the U.S. economy in late 2025.

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