Assessing North Korea’s intentions—and its grand strategy more generally—remains one of the toughest intelligence challenges for those working in government. Similarly, oceans of ink have been spiltt by scholars seeking to explain Pyongyang’s behaviour and how it affects the security dynamics of East Asia. While much of the literature is characterised by a default assumption that key actors in the region will cooperate to “manage” North Korea, recent developments suggest cause for renewed pes...
Assessing North Korea’s intentions—and its grand strategy more generally—remains one of the toughest intelligence challenges for those working in government. Similarly, oceans of ink have been spiltt by scholars seeking to explain Pyongyang’s behaviour and how it affects the security dynamics of East Asia. While much of the literature is characterised by a default assumption that key actors in the region will cooperate to “manage” North Korea, recent developments suggest cause for renewed pessimism about the situation on the Korean peninsula. A major succession process within the DPRK with real potential for crisis, growing hostility within South Korea towards Pyongyang, and North Korea’s emergence as a nuclear-armed regional power provide the ingredients for a period of significant instability on the peninsula over the coming decade.
Andrew O’Neil is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University. Andrew is the author of a wide range of journal articles and book chapters in the areas of security and strategy and is the author of Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia: The Quest for Security (Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2007). Before joining Griffith in January 2010, Andrew was Associate Professor in the School of Political and International Studies at Flinders University. Prior to taking up his first academic post in 2000, he worked as a strategic analyst with Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation as part of its North Asia and Global Issues branch. In 2009 Andrew was appointed editor-in-chief of the Australian Journal of International Affairs, Australia’s leading scholarly outlet for International Relations research.
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