EP48: Après Erdoğan, le déluge? What comes after Erdoğan?

Summary:

In this episode, we analyze the potential implications of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's departure from office in 2028. We examine the possible successors to Erdoğan's leadership, the future of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and the broader political and economic impacts on Türkiye. We discuss the potential changes in Türkiye’s foreign relations with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, along with the country's future role in the global landscape. We explore how a change in leadership could affect Türkiye’s relationship with Western powers like the United States and the European Union, and how the country's future direction depends on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the key challenges facing a post-Erdoğan AKP government?
2. What are the possible consequences for Türkiye's foreign policy if the AKP loses power in the next election?
3. How might Türkiye's global role change depending on who succeeds Erdoğan?

Long format:

 Après Erdoğan, le déluge? What comes after Erdoğan?

TL;DR

President Erdoğan, Türkiye’s longest-serving leader, announced that the 2024 elections would be his last, setting up a pivotal shift in Türkiye’s future. His departure leaves open questions about the AKP’s continued dominance and the emergence of a successor. Key opposition figures include Ekrem İmamoğlu, who leads in Istanbul, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a coalition-backed secular candidate. The AKP’s potential successor, Selcuk Bayraktar, lacks political experience, casting uncertainty over the party’s direction.

Economically, the AKP faces challenges due to high inflation and eroding public confidence, while ideologically, it must balance conservative values with growing demands for change. Internationally, Türkiye’s relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the West could shift significantly if an opposition leader assumes power, potentially softening Türkiye’s Islamist stance and enhancing diplomatic ties. If Erdoğan’s influence remains strong, however, Türkiye may continue its independent, nationalist approach, maintaining current regional complexities and selective Western engagement.

Introduction

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who is 70 years old is Türkiye’s longest-serving leader, having served in that position since 2014. He previously served as the 25th prime minister from 2003 to 2014 as part of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he co-founded in 2001.

In March 2024, he announced publicly that his current term in office would be his last. This begs the questions:

1. Who comes next?
2. Will the momentum of Türkiye’s advancements run out of steam?

Erdoğan has shaped Türkiye’s political landscape over two decades, transitioning the country from secularism to an Islamist-leaning governance. This paper examines what may come after Erdoğan’s departure, exploring potential successors, the future of the AKP, and the broader political implications for Türkiye.

Erdoğan’s Legacy: Consolidation of Power and Shifting Alliances

Erdoğan’s tenure began as Istanbul’s mayor in the 1990s, and he later served as prime minister in 2003 when the role held primary executive authority. His ascendance to the presidency in 2014, followed by a 2017 referendum shifting Türkiye from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, effectively solidified his grip on power. Under Erdoğan, Türkiye has undergone significant ideological transformation, moving from its secular Kemalist roots toward a governance model that emphasizes religious values and nationalism.

This ideological shift led to substantial changes in Türkiye’s foreign and domestic policies. Notably, Erdoğan’s administration, which initially showed openness toward former allies like Israel, experienced a significant rift with the country. The resurgence of tensions during the October 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict illustrates Erdoğan’s continued commitment to his Islamist-leaning foreign policy. His authoritarian approach domestically has involved restrictions on the press, civil society, and the judiciary, consolidating power within the executive branch. However, these policies have not been without consequence; Türkiye now faces widespread economic issues, with inflation at record levels and a public demanding change. The upcoming departure of Erdoğan therefore represents a turning point in Türkiye politics.

The Uncertain Future of the AKP

Across analyses, a consensus emerges that Erdoğan’s departure will significantly impact the AKP and Türkiye’s political landscape. His statement that this election was his last in office reflects a degree of confidence that the AKP will retain power post-Erdoğan. He has implied that the March 2024 local elections will offer a “blessing” and a “transfer of confidence” to his successors within the party. This language suggests that Erdoğan’s intent is for a seamless transition of leadership within the AKP, maintaining continuity in the party’s control and influence over Türkiye’s political system.

But things did not go according to Erdoğan’s plan with the March 2024 elections. This recent Turkish elections highlight a potential turning point as the opposition gained momentum against Erdoğan and his ruling AKP party. Led by Ekrem İmamoğlu, the opposition CHP has not only maintained control in major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir but has also won several traditionally AKP-controlled municipalities, signaling Erdoğan's weakening grip on power. İmamoğlu's significant win in Istanbul, despite Erdoğan’s heavy campaigning and media support for the AKP, establishes him as a formidable opponent and potential future presidential candidate.

The AKP’s inability to recover in urban areas, coupled with Türkiye’s struggling economy and high inflation, suggests that Erdoğan and his party may be losing public favor. Despite Erdoğan’s strategic use of media and judiciary power, his repeated defeats by İmamoğlu raise the possibility of a post-AKP Turkey. However, İmamoğlu’s political future remains uncertain due to ongoing legal challenges which could block him from running against Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential race. These issues center on allegations of insulting public officials during a 2019 speech following his initial victory in Istanbul’s mayoral race. The legal dispute underscores the broader challenge of judicial independence in Turkey, as critics argue that the judiciary may be used as a tool to sideline political rivals to Erdoğan and the ruling AKP. İmamoğlu faces a potential ban from politics if an appeals court upholds a previous ruling against him, stemming from a charge of “insulting public officials.” In Turkey, such legal convictions can result in restrictions on holding public office, which would prevent İmamoğlu from running for president. While İmamoğlu has appealed the ruling, the process’s outcome is uncertain, and any political ban would effectively remove a leading opposition figure.

Nonetheless, Turkey's shifting political landscape shows Erdoğan facing a stronger, revitalized opposition.

However, Erdoğan’s absence will create a leadership vacuum, posing questions about who will rise to fill it. The AKP’s core constituency, approximately 40% of the Turkish electorate, remains loyal, largely due to Erdoğan’s emphasis on conservative and nationalist values, but this base alone may not be sufficient to sustain the party’s dominance. The rise of secular opposition and factionalism within Turkish politics underscores that the AKP must retain its ideological coherence and political unity to survive without its long-time leader. Analysts agree that the AKP faces internal challenges in sustaining Erdoğan’s policies while potentially adapting to Türkiye’s changing economic and social climate.

The Viability of Successors and the Prospects of Continued AKP Dominance

While there is broad agreement on the importance of Erdoğan’s legacy, there is debate over the viability of potential successors and whether the AKP will retain its influence in Turkish politics. Several successors are speculated to inherit Erdoğan’s mantle, yet none possesses the same charismatic authority.

Ekrem İmamoğlu: A Strong Opposition Candidate

Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s current mayor and a member of the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), has emerged as one of Erdoğan’s most formidable challengers. His decisive victories in Istanbul, including a recent re-election, have made him a popular figure, even among moderate conservatives. His governance style emphasizes inclusiveness, a stark contrast to Erdoğan’s more authoritarian approach, and his populist tactics allow him to appeal across ideological divides within Türkiye’s opposition. Analysts see İmamoğlu as a likely presidential candidate for 2028, with the potential to lead Türkiye toward a more secular, democratic governance model, yet his popularity does not guarantee victory. İmamoğlu’s secular rhetoric and association with Atatürk—a secular icon in Türkiye—could alienate religious conservatives and limit his appeal among Erdoğan’s core base. However, as noted above, his political future certainly is in jeopardy due to court decisions.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu: The CHP Leader and Coalition Candidate

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the CHP and the Nation Alliance coalition’s presidential candidate, contrasts Erdoğan in both style and substance. Known for his integrity and secular principles, Kilicdaroglu brings a “calmer” vision for Türkiye’s future, promising to address corruption, restore the parliamentary system, and prioritize human rights. Kilicdaroglu’s backing from a coalition that includes six political parties marks a significant milestone in Turkish politics, as the opposition parties have set aside ideological differences to collectively oppose Erdoğan.

Despite this coalition, Kilicdaroglu’s lack of charisma compared to Erdoğan has been criticized, potentially making it difficult for him to gain widespread appeal across Turkey’s conservative-leaning electorate. Analysts believe that Kilicdaroglu may succeed in establishing institutional reforms if elected but may struggle to maintain long-term support due to his perceived lack of dynamism.

Selcuk Bayraktar: A Potential Successor from Within the AKP

Among those within Erdoğan’s circle, his son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar has garnered attention as a potential successor. Bayraktar’s reputation as a defense technology innovator, particularly with the Bayraktar drones, has earned him national and international recognition. While Bayraktar’s conservative values align with Erdoğan’s, his limited political experience and association with Erdoğan’s family could hinder his ability to rally independent support. Bayraktar’s stance on foreign policy, particularly his hardline position on Israel, suggests continuity with Erdoğan’s Islamist agenda, yet his viability as a political leader is uncertain.

Key Challenges for a Post-Erdoğan AKP

The AKP, facing an economy strained by inflation and a skeptical electorate, must navigate several challenges if it is to retain power in the post-Erdoğan era. Analysts highlight the following areas of concern:

1. Economic Crisis: High inflation and declining wages have eroded public confidence in the AKP’s economic management. For any successor, restoring the economy will be paramount. Analysts believe that economic recovery will require a shift from Erdoğan’s heavy-handed monetary policies, which have contributed to currency devaluation and high living costs.
2. Preservation of Conservative Values: Erdoğan’s leadership has promoted an Islamic identity within Turkish society, appealing to conservative Turks wary of secularist policies. AKP successors must navigate the delicate balance of retaining this ideological base while addressing the demands of a more diverse electorate.
3. Institutional Legacy and Foreign Policy Realignment: Erdoğan’s approach has centralized power in the presidency and reoriented foreign policy toward a more nationalist, sometimes isolationist stance. Türkiye’s diplomatic relations with NATO, the European Union, and the United States may experience renewed strain under an Erdoğan successor if foreign policy becomes a campaign issue. Some speculate that the CHP may realign Türkiye’s stance more favorably toward the West, potentially restoring ties strained by Erdoğan’s Islamist-leaning policies.

What the immediate internal future looks like

Türkiye’s post-Erdoğan future presents a dynamic and uncertain political landscape. While Erdoğan has asserted that the AKP will continue to dominate Turkish politics, his departure leaves open critical questions about the country’s direction. The challenges for his successors include overcoming entrenched economic issues, managing ideological divides, and recalibrating foreign relations.

Ekrem İmamoğlu and Kemal Kilicdaroglu emerge as leading opposition candidates, advocating for a secular and democratic Türkiye that contrasts sharply with Erdoğan’s Islamist governance. Within the AKP, figures like Selcuk Bayraktar represent continuity with Erdoğan’s legacy, though his political experience remains limited. For Türkiye, the period after Erdoğan’s departure will likely involve an ideological tug-of-war, a potential shift in foreign relations, and a reevaluation of its position within the global landscape.

The departure of Erdoğan signals the end of an era marked by centralization, populism, and religious conservatism. In his absence, the AKP’s future will hinge on whether it can adapt to Türkiye’s evolving political and economic landscape, a challenge that may redefine Türkiye’s governance and influence its democratic stability for years to come.

What the immediate external future looks like

Ekrem İmamoğlu’s potential disqualification from the presidential race could have a broad impact on Türkiye’s foreign relations, particularly with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, as well as Türkiye’s future role on the global stage. As a leading figure in Turkey’s secular opposition, İmamoğlu represents a break from President Erdoğan’s Islamist-leaning foreign policy. If he or another opposition leader were to rise to power, Türkiye’s diplomatic posture could shift significantly. Conversely, if Erdoğan’s influence persists or another figure from the AKP or a similarly aligned successor takes power, Türkiye is likely to maintain its current foreign policy orientation. Here’s how these dynamics could play out:

Türkiye-Israel Relations

Türkiye’s relationship with Israel has fluctuated sharply under Erdoğan, who has often criticized Israel, particularly over Palestinian issues, and maintained close ties with Hamas. While recent attempts were made to improve relations, the October 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict saw Erdoğan revert to strong anti-Israel rhetoric, once again straining diplomatic ties.

1. If İmamoğlu or a Similar Opposition Leader Gains Power: A shift in leadership could lead to a more balanced and less antagonistic relationship with Israel. İmamoğlu’s secular background and pragmatic approach could foster better cooperation, especially in trade, technology, and defense sectors. An opposition-led Türkiye might also distance itself from groups like Hamas, opening the door to diplomatic rapprochement with Israel, possibly even working jointly on regional security issues or energy projects.
2. If Erdoğan’s Influence Persists: If Erdoğan remains influential through an AKP successor or if his party continues to shape Turkish politics, the current approach toward Israel—supportive of Palestinian causes and at odds with Israeli policies—would likely continue. Türkiye would probably sustain its critical stance on Israel’s handling of Palestinian territories, keeping relations cool and constraining the potential for cooperation.

Turkey’s Relations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt

Erdoğan’s foreign policy also impacted relations with other key regional players, notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Türkiye’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its opposition to Saudi-Egyptian policies on issues like Qatar and Libya have led to years of tension. Recent diplomatic overtures have brought some improvement, but fundamental ideological divides remain.

1. Under an Opposition Government: An İmamoğlu-led or opposition-aligned government could further thaw relations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The opposition, more secular in orientation, is less likely to support groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and more likely to engage constructively with Riyadh and Cairo. This change could ease tensions and lead to a normalization of relations, enabling Türkiye to play a more collaborative role in regional economic initiatives, security arrangements, and energy cooperation.
2. If the AKP or Erdoğan’s Influence Continues: An AKP-led administration would likely maintain an ambivalent stance toward Saudi Arabia and Egypt, balancing pragmatic cooperation with ideological differences. While pragmatic in terms of trade and security coordination, an AKP-led Türkiye may continue to support factions in regional conflicts that align with Erdoğan’s Islamist leanings, potentially complicating deep diplomatic alignment.

Türkiye’s Future Place in the World

Türkiye’s role on the global stage has shifted under Erdoğan from a Western-aligned secular state to a regional power pursuing independent, often contentious policies that prioritize Turkish sovereignty and nationalism. Türkiye’s relations with the EU, the United States, and NATO have become increasingly complex as Erdoğan’s policies have sometimes conflicted with Western priorities, including relations with Russia and regional security concerns.

1. If İmamoğlu or a Secular Successor Takes Office: A leadership shift could bring Türkiye closer to the West and improve its standing in NATO and relations with the EU. The opposition has indicated support for a return to a parliamentary system, democratic reforms, and the rule of law, which would align with EU standards. Improved democratic credentials could revive EU accession talks and foster better relations with the U.S. A recalibrated foreign policy would likely aim to balance relations with Russia, maintain NATO commitments, and potentially bolster cooperation with Western allies on regional security issues.
2. Continuation of Erdoğan’s Foreign Policy: If Erdoğan’s legacy endures through an AKP successor or another ideologically similar figure, Türkiye may continue to pursue an independent and assertive foreign policy. This approach would likely involve balancing relations with Russia, engaging selectively with the West, and maintaining influence in the Middle East. Türkiye’s position as a bridge between East and West would remain, but the emphasis on sovereignty and nationalism could make closer integration with the EU and deeper NATO collaboration more challenging.

Conclusion

Türkiye’s future global role will be shaped significantly by the outcome of its internal political dynamics. If İmamoğlu or a secular opposition figure takes power, Türkiye could pivot toward a more Western-friendly and diplomatically balanced approach, potentially easing regional tensions and strengthening international partnerships. However, if Erdoğan’s influence persists through a successor, Turkey may continue to prioritize an independent, nationalist approach, which could limit deeper cooperation with Western allies and maintain regional complexities in its relationships with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The outcome of Türkiye’s political transition will therefore play a crucial role in defining its future influence and alliances on the global stage.

Sources:

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/06/the-question-of-erdogans-succession/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/04/turkey-local-elections-erdogan-akp-imamoglu/

https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-turkey-after-local-elections-put-erdogan-on-notice-227430

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-battles-key-rival-turkeys-local-elections-2024-03-31/

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1172704065/turkey-election-candidate-kemal-kilicsdaroglu-erdogan-challenger