Global Data Pod Research Rap: Shipping disruptions reignite supply chain woes

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the recent shipping disruptions along the Suez and Panama Canals and the implications for global supply chains and inflation. We estimate the recent surge in container shipping costs––if they persist––could add 0.7%-pts to global core goods CPI (0.3%-pt to core). Most of that inflationary impulse is not likely to be felt until late 1Q or early 2Q, however, given lagged pass-through. If sustained, there could also be a hit to global industry on the downside, reinforcing our concerns that global industry is starting the year off weak.  While nowhere near a COVID-era shock, even a modest rebound in goods inflation could render global core CPI inflation sticky around the 3% mark, especially if services inflation stays stuck above central bank targets as we project.

This podcast was recorded on January 23, 2024.

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