The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next...
The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next week.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2024.
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