E30: What’s Fuelling Gerrit? (GF1)

The Lithium-ion Rocks podcast is back - and better than ever in video format now also on YouTube at Rock Stock Channel!

Also back is one of our most popular guests, lithium expert Gerrit Fuelling, who spent nearly 3 decades at the world's #1 lithium producer Albemarle.

Rodney and Howard agree with other leading industry voices suggesting to "Listen to everything Gerrit says". Gerrit is the only lithium expert commenting publicly with long experience not just with world class brines, but with what has become the more dominant and relevant hard rock technology for the nickel-rich, hydroxide-hungry cathodes Tesla and other western OEMs require.

As a follow up to Rock Stock Channel's 12 minute "Albemarle Throws Lithium Mud at Elon", the first of our two-part, long-form interviews dives deeper into Albemarle's messaging from their October 8th "Teach-in" with investment bank Jefferies.

In the age of battery Terafactories and ludicrous EV growth mode, will the world be able to produce enough lithium in time to meet Tesla and the rest of the world's ambitious goals?

Gerrit argues that, while lithium is fundamentally abundant, there's a real risk that lithium production will significantly lag as EV penetration grows rapidly. Fundamentally a complicated, inorganic specialty chemistry business - scaling lithium production takes time; investments in lithium project development is substantially lagging EV, Battery and cathode plant development.

Credible lithium projects of all types - hard rock, traditional brine, clay and unconventional brine projects will be needed. But, as Albemarle argues, over the next 5 years, hard rock projects will be the quickest and most reliable to market. New projects and new technologies are more likely late this decade and the cost curve will have to rise - potentially significantly - to accommodate what are likely to be higher cost projects. In an industry littered with failed projects - even among conventional projects run by the most experienced producers - investors should be mindful that there are unlikely any new "silver bullets."

How in the world will the lithium industry develop 50 new 20,000 ton capacity hydroxide plants by 2030?

$30-40B + investment is needed in green and brown field development. During the 2016-17 lithium mini-boom many developers advanced projects and are worthy of further investment.

Gerrit hints at a few he rates as relevant, which Howard and Rodney dig deeper into in our next video E31 - What's Fuelling Gerrit (GF2). Stay tuned.

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Not investment research. DYOR. Read video disclaimer.