Conflict: Niall Ferguson on Ukraine, Taiwan, and His War of Words with V. P. Vance

Niall Ferguson, preeminent historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins this episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss the war and ongoing stalemate in Ukraine; the Trump administration’s foreign policy and negotiations with Russia; and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shift in Europe’s defense posture as the US signals a reduced commitment to NATO.

Throughout the conversation, Ferguson explores historical analogies to better understand Ukraine’s position, using comparisons to South Korea and South Vietnam. He discusses China’s backing of Russia and its role in what he calls Cold War II, highlighting the long-term implications of this growing alliance. The discussion also covers the shock strategy deployed by Trump and Vice President JD Vance to pressure Europe into taking more responsibility for its own defense, a move that Ferguson believes has finally awakened European leaders to their countries’ security needs.

Beyond Ukraine, the conversation shifts to the larger economic and military vulnerabilities of the United States, particularly in relation to China. Ferguson argues that America is no longer in a position of overwhelming strength and draws parallels between the US today and Britain in the 1930s: both as declining empires facing an emboldened adversary. He warns that while Trump’s realpolitik approach may be a necessary adaptation to America’s strategic limitations, its success remains uncertain. The discussion ultimately raises the question of whether this strategy will prevent a major conflict or, conversely, accelerate the decline of American global primacy.

Recorded on March 14, 2025