We are redistributing over latest discussion on X Spaces as a Rock Stock Channel episode, sharing where we think we are in the lithium & rare earths cycle, what’s changed, and how we’re positioning as RK Equity for a potential “risk-on” turn in mining equities.
In this conversation, Howard, Matt and Rodney (with guests including YJ Lee, Chris Berry, Tom Woolrych, Jody Dahrouge, Christopher Williams and others) walk through what matters now for retail investors across lithium, rare earths and broader critica...
We are redistributing over latest discussion on X Spaces as a Rock Stock Channel episode, sharing where we think we are in the lithium & rare earths cycle, what’s changed, and how we’re positioning as RK Equity for a potential “risk-on” turn in mining equities.
In this conversation, Howard, Matt and Rodney (with guests including YJ Lee, Chris Berry, Tom Woolrych, Jody Dahrouge, Christopher Williams and others) walk through what matters now for retail investors across lithium, rare earths and broader critical minerals.
What we cover:
- Macro & sentiment: Why risk appetite is re-emerging across gold, uranium, Bitcoin and critical minerals—and how policy (IRA, infrastructure/CHIPS, deregulation/reshoring) may shape capital flows and listings.
- Lithium demand vs. supply: Normalized inventories, China supply-cut narratives, and why demand (EVs + grid-scale storage) is the swing factor. We discuss falling battery costs, global price competition, and EV penetration beyond China into emerging markets.
- BESS is breaking out: How grid batteries could be the “next trillion-dollar business” and what multi-year storage growth implies for LCE demand.
- Processing drives cost curves: A clear explainer on DMS vs. flotation for hard-rock—capex/opex, grind size, recoveries, and real-world lessons (e.g., Sigma’s DMS-only, whole-of-mine float cases).
Jurisdictional deep-dives:
- Quebec/Ontario hard-rock: Permitting realities, low-cost hydro power, conversion “missing middle,” and why project geometry (thickness, dip, heterogeneity) matters.
- Brazil: Low-cost power, DMS suitability, and why the country has the raw materials stack to host more of the battery supply chain.
- Conventional brines (Argentina/Chile): Why high-grade salar projects can be through-cycle low-cost—and why the market may be mispricing them relative to hard-rock.
- DLE—promise vs. timeline: Where it fits (including boosting recovery on conventional brines), technical pitfalls (feed variability, oilfield impurities), and realistic scale-up expectations.
- Rare earths primer: MP Materials’ U.S. push, magnet REEs (NdPr, Dy, Tb), ionic clay vs. hard-rock deposits, purity challenges, and the role of defense vs. broader tech/e-mobility demand.
Companies & themes mentioned (not recommendations)
MP Materials (NYSE: MP), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), Sigma Lithium (NASDAQ/TSX-V: SGML), Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), Core Lithium (ASX: CXO), Patriot Battery Metals (TSX: PMET | ASX: PMT), Winsome (ASX: WR1), Frontier Lithium (TSX-V: FL), Galan Lithium (ASX: GLN), Lithium Argentina (NYSE: LAR), NOA Lithium (TSX-V: NOAL), Wildcat (ASX: WC8), Lithium Ionic (TSX-V: LTH), Atlas Lithium (NASDAQ: ATLX), Talon Metals (TSX: TLO), Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO), BYD, CATL—plus topics like SPACs, EV truck adoption, and restocking into year-end.
Why it matters for retail investors:
- Cost & flow-sheet choices (DMS vs. flotation) can make or break project economics.
- BESS + EVs expand the addressable market faster than many models assume.
- Jurisdictional power costs & permitting (e.g., Québec hydro) directly impact margin.
- Conventional brines may offer mispriced, through-cycle optionality.
- Rare earths remain strategically important—focus on magnet REEs and realistic ramp timelines.
Stay connected:
- Follow on X:
Rock Stock Channel: https://x.com/rkequityrocks
Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull
Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13
Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley
- Read Matt’s research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/
- Sign up for our Lithium-ion Bull newsletter at https://rkequity.com/
- Subscribe on YouTube / Spotify / Apple Podcasts for Rock Stock Channel updates.
📖 Chapters
(00:00:00) Market Backdrop
(00:10:00) Lithium Inventories & China Restocking
(00:15:00) EV Price War, BYD Exports & BESS Surge
(00:19:00) Rare Earths Reset: MP Deal & Demand
(00:32:00) Ionic Clay REEs: Brazil/Africa
(00:52:20) Quebec Hard Rock: Q2 Metals, Patriot
(01:08:20) Quebec Edge: Permitting, Power, By-Products
(01:13:40) The “Missing Middle”: Bécancour Refining
(01:36:20) Demand Outlook: EVs, Storage, Heavy Trucks
(01:51:00) DLE Reality Check: China & Brines
(02:05:00) Argentina Brines: Low Cost, Mispricing
(02:09:20) Brazil DMS Edge & WA Developers
(02:17:40) Closing Thoughts & Rio Watch-Items
🌍 Links
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel
Podcast:
Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq
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DISCLAIMER
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
Rodney, Matt and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com
Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein
