Following the 2020 election which marked the dawn of Biden's presidency, the world saw a turning point in history as the nationalist policies of the previous administration were replaced by a globalist one. In this episode of the Beyond the Present podcast Daniel and Pouya discuss what the Biden presidency means not only for the US but also for the rest of the world
Episode Transcript...
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
trump, president biden, biden, world, vaccines, administration, russia, approach, earthquake, president biden's, pandemic, run, nations, policies, ministration, major, talking, vaccinated, obama, highly
SPEAKERS
Pouya LJ, Dan
Pouya LJ 00:10
Hello, ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to yet another episode of The BGP podcast. I'm here, as always with Danny Mulligan, how's it going, buddy?
Dan 00:18
What's the man buddy, glad to be here with you pretty happy and excited to be here for you to another let's talk edition of Beyond the present podcast, life is great we are gradually approaching this summer, which as many know is thought to be our first get away from all of this madness called the COVID pandemic. So pretty happy and excited, because as you probably know, I am the kind of person who is pretty much always on the move. And having seen our lifestyles change over the past year or so has obviously made me even more hopeful about what's about to occur in the near future. So life is pretty good. on all fronts, we're happy about the pace at which most of the world is being vaccinated. Although quite frankly, I'm a little bit disappointed by the European Union, things are much better. I mean, the US started off his way back. But after President Biden took, took the office, fortunately, things have gotten a lot better. And now we are hearing that, hopefully, by July, the US will be pretty much fully vaccinated. The stories are also pretty good in many other countries, let's say and, for example, in Russia, I heard they're gonna open up pretty soon, because as you're filming, I was pretty active there. Middle East is doing pretty well so far, apart from a few countries. And the only problem that I have right now is the pace, the slow pace of which Europe is actually moving forward. And it's quite ironic, because I remember Germany was thought to be one of the best countries in the world in terms of the way they handled the pandemic. And that was one of the least efficient, I have no idea why and how it all changed. But generally speaking, you're probably going to be a little bit behind. But for now, the world as a whole is moving forward. I don't know about how things are in Canada, by the way. So you're telling me how things are? And when you guys yeah, that predict things to go back to normal?
Pouya LJ 02:02
Yeah, no, unfortunately, it's not going that well here either. Maybe similar to European Union, I'm not too sure how they are doing but maybe even worse, because the problem is Canada does not have production of vaccines within its country. So it has to get all others. And given what it is it's been proving difficult. And also not not just politically difficult, but also very transportation, apparently, of this vaccine is very, very difficult because of this, especially,
Dan 02:27
you know, the western vaccines. Yes, sir.
Pouya LJ 02:31
Yes. Yeah. Exactly. My maternal Yeah.
Dan 02:33
Now, what is the current statistics in Canada, by the way, in terms of those who've been already vaccinated? The numbers? I mean, is it actually going down? Or is it still going up?
Pouya LJ 02:45
Like numbers,
Dan 02:46
so it's infectious? Yes, of course, yes. Oh, no, infections
Pouya LJ 02:49
are good, it they're not that bad. They're the combination of social distancing, some restrictions, and the vaccines are helping a bit so that the infections, at least within Ontario, are not really that bad. They're like, less than 1000 per day, for your lifestyle, generally, because
Dan 03:06
now gradually, we're seeing, you know, places getting opened, and people are gradually going back to your regular life, are you guys still under a lockdown or life is kind of back to normal.
Pouya LJ 03:17
So it's not a lockdown right now in Toronto, or wrestle Ontario. But there, they have created this tearing system that depending on the statistics, they're gonna put it in different color coded. So, quote, unquote, so what does that mean is that if numbers go higher, they have certain sort of, like 20% capacity 50% capacity indoors outdoors, like these kinds of restrictions vary depending on the numbers I have, across population. So about but generally speaking, for me personally, it didn't create a huge difference. But But I'm thinking for the months to come go into summer, similar to last year, when it was more outdoor activities started, did but because of the nature of this virus itself, probably things going to open up even regardless of the vaccine, and hopefully, the vaccine if then going back to the fall on the other end of the summer, which will also hopefully not be a problem. But we will see. Yeah,
Dan 04:24
I see. Well, personally, I have already planned all my trips, I am not going to spend basically the next summer like the last one, I do want to hit a couple of countries. So definitely, we're going to get started regardless. But let's hope that this thing is going to get better, although we're all hopeful. And we know that this year is going to make it a lot better. Although then again, the pace at which the vaccine is being basically done in most countries, unfortunately, outside of those nations where the manufacturers right now, in terms of the way nations have handled this, so far some of the best nations in terms of payment. wish they were actually vaccinating is indeed, Russia, United States because these two nations have their own vaccines manufacturing in China is also quite close. All of these guys beat the pandemic long ago without even having the vaccines. But generally, when you look at the nations that are manufacturing their own vaccines, the United States, Russia and China, you're sure that they are way ahead of the rest of the world who need to actually import those vaccines.
Pouya LJ 05:24
Yeah, absolutely. That's true. And that that says a lot. I guess there's a there's an inherent value in being able to produce the stuff that you need, especially especially the essential ones, you know, like, the PPS, I don't know, the masks and whatnot, and obviously, vaccines, drugs and stuff. Because Yeah, when the world is good and dandy, everybody's happy to help everybody. But when the cover and push comes to shove, you know, you always go first. Right? So that's that's part of it. Exactly. Anyway,
Dan 05:54
so true.
Pouya LJ 05:55
Right. I actually our topic is not too far from this subject. And it's not the same. So we're we're talking about, we're, how many months like almost three months, two and a half past Biden's inauguration and the new administration in the United States. That's right, as I'm correct to a two and a half,
Dan 06:15
three months, of course, your most jagriti January 23.
Pouya LJ 06:18
So the first so two and a half. That's
Dan 06:20
right. But in terms of the election, yes, actually, more than that, but yeah, right.
Pouya LJ 06:24
Yeah. But since he took office, and well, obviously, with any new administration, comes new, you know, policies within the country and foreign, which is going to affect obviously, the entire world as it did when we move from Obama to Trump. And, and it was a drastic one, and I suppose this one could have, we could have anticipated that it would have drastic, you know, effects on the entire
Dan 06:53
world.
Pouya LJ 06:54
Now, my question is, from what you have observed that this is the topic today, obviously, my question is, from what you have observed from the past couple of months or so, where do you see this administration going? And what the priorities are? And how does that affect the our other countries
Dan 07:12
in the world? Very good question. First of all, we should consider the fact that buyten does not equal Obama, that's a huge misconception that is nowadays quite common. Even from the very beginning people fall Okay, Biden's Obama to point out, no, President Biden does not have the exact same approach towards leadership, as President Obama did, because while they are from the same party, and while they even have worked together in the same administration, President Biden is thought to be a middle left, not a far left. And that, of course, is going to lead to a variety of different approaches, that he will can, you know, control and manage the country is being a left or a democrat does not necessarily mean that you will all follow the same guidelines, or the same approach towards policies in all years of basically governance. Rather, what it really entails is that you have the same background and the same goals. And yet, so for that reason, the first issue that we have to take into consideration is the fact that Mr. Biden is not going to leave the nation exactly the way President Obama because the times basically have changed. And that requires a new approach towards all forms of strategy, the world in which President Obama, let the you know, the United States and the world was somehow very different than what we are seeing today. And especially after what Trump did, a lot of the US alliances have now been severely damaged. So along with us reputation as well, to some degree to some degree, and that, of course, is going to cause further problems and complications. But from my point of view, if you want to look at President Biden's approach, think of someone who is definitely not a Republican, but is also not a far left far Democrat. So for that reason, you can guess someone who is tough, but not crazy, like Republicans, but at the same time, not necessarily all left and all Okay, no problem, we're gonna make deals with everybody, no problem whatsoever. So because of that, we can see the US keeping certain approaches that were initiated by the Trump administration in place while adding new stuff. So these are not going to be basically diametrically opposite, rather, a there's gonna be some major differences in the way the policy is there. Because obviously, you have like republicans versus Democrats. But in terms of the actual direction, it's not going to be like a complete opposite. So many initiatives, like, you know, made in America, for example, are going to continue whether it's buying or Trump because that's part of the you know, the the system. So, since today, we're talking mainly about the international community, and how the Biden presidency affects the international media. Of course, there's going to be a lot of differences. Now. If you probably follow the news. You basically have heard about Trump making an appearance recently and a republican You mentioned saying, did you guys miss it? Oh, I'm sure you did. So for that reason, we can imagine right now what's happening in that people are a little bit concerned whether Trump is going to actually come back and run again, and so on. But right now many of those initiatives are still in place. And I'm not going to be changed that. However, what we can see again, to quote Trump himself, he said, in a simple one month, we went from America first America last. So what what is really actually means is, is that America is back in the global stage. So what the previous administration wanted to have for the world was to make policies solely in a way that benefits especially those who are on the Republican side, so those who are not concerned about the long term us influence. But now the US, of course, would like to take things back in a way that it was during the Obama ministration. So revitalizing the US alliances, the European Union, for example, empowering NATO, returning and rejoining the Paris Agreement, and more importantly, healing a lot of the wounded relationships, and also taking a certain relationships that were favorite for Trump, like those of Saudi Arabia, and you know, a little bit differently to see if things are necessarily reliable in that regard or not. And we're now seeing things like stopping the sales of weapons and sleep aircrafts to Saudi Arabia. So basically, when it comes to foreign policy, we're going to see some dramatic changes by the Biden inspiration. But that does not mean everything's going to change overnight. Because as you probably know, in the world of international politics, there is no such thing as rapid change, that cannot basically lead to some sort of conflict. For that reason, all the changes that will occur in the administration will be slow lunch, we cannot undo the damage of four years of complete, basically, ignorance when it comes to foreign policy, in over I don't know, a couple of months. So what we can predict from the states in the near future is to follow on the same path as that of Obama, but with very different unique strategies. So the Paris Agreement was signed on the first day of basically office. But that doesn't mean that those regulations will necessarily go in place immediately. On day one, they are going to require a lot of time. The other force major approach was about the trade agreements, United States and Canada, and Mexico, NAFTA. And that is, of course, right now revitalize as well. So all of these rejoin these agreements, that doesn't mean that the world has already changed, it simply means we are on the path towards recovery from all the damage done. Now, the other key issues for the Biden ministration, when it comes to foreign policy, is dealing with the threat of Russia, as you probably know, Russia is AB bait for the Democratic basically, side is thought to be the most important and serious threat. So we're gonna have to see how the United States deals with Russia, but mainly through targeted, basically sanctions, not for the economy as a whole, but target individuals to make sure that, you know, the economy does not suffer so much. And that's the major difference between sanctioning strategies of the right administration versus Trump. So when Trump wants to, for example, sanction a country, they will sanction the whole economy, which is going to affect the entire, you know, economy, a great example was Trump's leaving the nuclear deal with Iran. So that itself was a great example of how they actually crushed the old economy. Now, what President Biden right now is doing with Russia, is trying to actually maintain the economy stable, but target these sanctions in a way that sends a message that, you know, the United States is not going to perhaps tolerate certain Russian, you know, aggression, or saying things like, the US will never recognize Crimea as a part of Russia is one of those other examples. So you can even like recently, in one of his first two military, basically campaigns, Biden targeted certain, basically, Iran back basically bases in Syria. Now, they could have actually done some something like that in Iraq directly, but they avoided that. So what this implies is that the Biden ministration does not want serious confrontation the way Trump did. Instead, they are also not going to be like, extreme left and back office. You know what, okay, do whatever you want. I just want to talk. So they are also going to show some strength. That's the thing that got me elected because in the primaries, Biden said, I am not a real radical left, if you will. I am basically a middle left. So a lot of the his initiatives are going to involve certain strength, but not the way Trump did, of course, right. So for that reason, the first and most important impact of Biden ministration on global politics is understanding The fact that the US is willing to strengthen relationship with the allies, at the same time, they are willing to negotiate better, instead of just fighting with the adversaries basically, that the United States currently has. And as of now, when it comes to the, you know, the whole global politics, there are a few nations that are of particular concern for the states, and namely, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and to some extent, what is happening in Yemen, with Saudi Arabia, outside of that, basically, then states is also quite concerned with dealing with the threat, you know, the problems that are currently facing Europe by mainly trying to strengthen NATO, in order to go a face the threat of Russia. But at the same time, the trade agreements, a lot of which Trump imposed on certain nations should be removed the bands of let's say, tariffs, and imports, all of those, but the fact of the matter is, this is all going to take time. So we are going to be seeing a lot of changes. But if you're waiting for those changes to occur overnight, or in the first few months, the chances are, you're a little bit too hopeful about it. Because I think, you know, all these changes to really start kicking in right after the pandemic is basically many months over because by then, hopefully, the bike administration is going to actually change a lot of these policies and make sure they're actually implemented. So that is the major factor that we're currently seeing occurring.
Pouya LJ 16:29
Okay, and that was very elaborate. Now I have a couple of questions that are more, you know, fantasizing, and just daydreaming and talking about these stuff. way out. And that is, why it's not not in that romantic sense. But
Dan 16:44
I mean, we all love daydreaming, man, we all have time.
Pouya LJ 16:48
Right? So in the four years from now, do you see Trump running for presidency?
Dan 16:55
Well, actually, it was officially announced that he is interested. And he actually shows interest, although not officially declared. But the fact of the matter is, as you probably know, the Republican Party currently is putting a lot of value in Donald Trump, because of his popularity, that there simply cannot be any other candidate who can reach the same level of support, especially among the hardcore Republicans. You see, the other states of america is highly divided right now. And it is this major segregation is between the the fluid type, and the more basically, rigid type, if you will. Now, if you want to learn more about this, I remind you a great book called Prius, or pickup, which talks a lot about this major divide in the American Society among the left and the right. But the fact of the matter is that the party that represents Donald Trump has supporters primarily made of what we call their rigid type, oftentimes suburban, not highly educated, usually more concerned, basically, with general basically, and tradition and religion, and at the same time, highly suspicious of basically the outside world. Because most of these communities generally do not have a high level of trust towards the outsiders, whether it's immigrants, whether it's the foreign countries, and this is a specific mindset that is, unfortunately, quite prevalent today in American society, made primarily from a conservative background, highly religious, highly suspicious of anything that is not traditionally thought to be American, and more importantly, generally, less, basically, a suburban and a more rural, if you will, most of whom are all Trump supporters. I mean, how many times have you moved around and saw a truck driver with a Make America Great cap driving his pickup truck, I mean, that's a very, very common thing, especially in rural areas. So Donald Trump is almost like a God. He's even like, almost worshiped by a lot of these people, and thought to be some sort of Messiah who's bringing, you know, peace in order when he says, the line order, we have it all the law and order and all those things. So for that reason, I really believe that this is definitely going to make a huge difference. And for that reason, it is likely for him to run again, although having lost his access to social media could seriously impede his progress. But then again, he could run again. Now, will I say that he will run again, necessarily in near future. I don't think that that could be guaranteed as of now, however, it is very likely that he could run again, although it's not sort of going to mean that he will win again, because as you probably know, there's a great book about this, the key to the White House, basically and in this book is talk about what it really takes to change administration, while the president is an incumbent, so even if Trump runs again, he kept No matter how much his followers love him. And even if he runs again, and he tries to say, yeah, guys, I'm back for making America great again, and all those things In the end, it's almost impossible for an administration to lose its power and make it basically in between two terms. Unless there's what we call a political earthquake. This is what Professor Lichtman talked about in his book, this is a White House. So whether Trump runs people should not be concerned about who is going to run against Trump or not, because that is not a very important factor. Because if Trump runs again, but President Biden's decisions, both at home and basically internationally, will lead to basically a situation where a political earthquake is avoided. So perhaps there isn't a major economic downturn, or there is no major international conflict, let's say with the adversaries. So it all really now the ball is in Biden's courts. And it really doesn't matter who is going to run again on the Republican side. So long as President Biden avoids a political earthquake. Because for Trump, we saw major such earthquakes, I mean, his international deals and then at home that black life matters, racism, he caused a major tsunami on Earth, but a tsunami, political tsunami, right. But for those who are this is want to know more about this, check out the book, the keys to the White House, there are 13 keys, by the way. And for a, you know, a candidate to house basically an incumbent president out of the White House that requires him to win at least six of those keys and causes of earthquake. As of now, it's too early to say whether this is going to happen. But I can tell you this that the odds of President Biden with his moderate approach, neither extreme left because you know, Trump when extreme right? When you move towards any strange, the chance of any earthquake, whether it's in a relationship or in politics goes higher. But since President Biden has already declared himself to be a moderate Democrat, I highly suspect any major political earthquake to happen. And even if President Biden does have certain plans, for you know, taking some extreme left approach, I'm pretty sure just like previous Democrats, is going to be smart enough to keep those things for his second term, not the first. That's what Trump did wrong. He went all extreme. Right away, he went all in from the very beginning and that constantly election, right. So for the next election, I highly doubt that President Biden's gonna cause a political earthquake, if you will. And for that reason, it could be Trump, it could be Trump's Trump Jr. It could be Trump's grandson, it could be anybody. I hope not Ted, Ted Cruz, because I really don't like his facial hair. It's just super weird. But ultimately, it could be anyone. But if President Biden does not basically lose that momentum, there's no chance Trump can win again, even if all of his voters basically in supporters vote again, he could still lose unless Biden, so basically, this election proves that basically, Biden's gonna win again, unless Biden really mess up. So it's, it has nothing to do with Trump. If you already want to be concerned about the future America and the world, be concerned about what Biden is doing, and do not concern yourself so much with what Trump has in store. He says, oh, I'll be back. I'll be back again. That's just a bunch of you know, media because the guy loves the attention. Right. But in reality, it's not about Trump whatsoever. It's about what President Biden does, if he avoids any major political earthquake, if you will. He's got his next four years right after that.
Pouya LJ 23:40
There's a natural question, given his age, whether he would want to continue that.
Dan 23:45
Well, that's another story. People are talking a lot about that as well. Whether we the illustrations, regular habits, first female president, I personally think that us currently is not at this very stage is not ready. But hopefully in the coming years, hopefully, the US will be ready to also to have basically its first female president, because as you probably know, the US is highly divided right now. And among the traditional, basic conservative communities in the US, which are, by the way, everywhere, they do not have that approach. They are very patriarchal in nature, they don't believe that a woman could be on top of everything. It's like, very traditional old fashioned, if you will. So for that we need a little bit more time, but then again, probably there's no better time to get started, then, basically 2024 We'll see about that. But until then, we have to keep our eyes fixated on President Biden, and just watch Trump for you know, its own sense of fun. I mean, the guys are, you know, showman. He's funny. I mean, like, I can't imagine a single time I watched a speech and didn't laugh at some point because oh, yeah, entertaining man. It definitely is. I mean, the guy was a reality TV star, right. I mean, he knows how to entertain his audience, but the problem is global Politics and International. Politics is not a goddamn reality TV. We need a real president. Like President Biden, not a reality TV president like Donald Trump.
Pouya LJ 25:08
Yeah. Amen. Amen to that. All right, that was that was a great, great talk. And I think we covered a lot, because we covered more than I thought we would. So thank you for that. My pleasure. I don't know if you we left anything you want to wrap up, or we can? Well,
Dan 25:23
first of all, great topic, and I wouldn't like to wish and hope all our listeners, because we're going for a very tough time, I'd like to wish them you know, peace of mind. But please do know that a lot of the policies that Trump ministration basically had earlier was what led to the current situation. But fortunately, hope is really inside. And we can actually see some light at the end of the tunnel. But more importantly, today, we're talking about President Biden's influence globally. And we mentioned that, based on what Trump said, we've gone from America first America last. But the fact of the matter is, what has really happened is that America is now open again to the world. So this is going to make some major difference, because the states has a very special role in controlling basically, this situation all over the world because of the influence that the country has, right. And that will make us very hopeful. However, people should not think of Biden administration, as you know, miracle workers, because the world of politics is very complicated. And changes rarely occur. I mean, you can damage things very quickly as Trump did. It's kind of like in like a building, you can demolish an entire building, it took you years to make it you know, with one that nation, but you cannot build it also with one that nation right. So for that reason, while the damage that Trump administration caused on the global community was huge, and the rapid, basically, healing of the alliances, and bringing back ordered to the world is going to take a lot longer and saying we have to spend a lot more time to build and construct than it does to destroying. So for that reason, we should be hopeful and know that this change is going to take a while but in the end, hope is hopefully inside, and there is light into the tunnel.
Pouya LJ 27:08
That's great to know. Thank you. Thank you very much, Dan, for joining us as always.
Dan 27:12
My pleasure, man. Love it.
Pouya LJ 27:13
All right. Thank you all for tuning in listening in. And if you have any comments or questions, please ask us leave comments, and if not until later episode. Have a good one.
