Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 8, 2025 - Another Kind of US Exceptionalism?

In today's slightly shorter podcast - due to a pending Bloomberg appearance - we discuss the transition from the tariff setting stage to the deal-making stage and markets have responded with enthusiasm.

The deals to date - when probed - may have over-promised and under-delivered though, and there may be little "there" there, upon examination. For example in the US/UK deal it seems to have been restricted to cars and metal on the parts of the UK exports and agricultural products and Boeing orders on the part of UK imports. It is worth remembering that the 10% tariff is still in place, and that the UK was one of the few markets that previously had a trading surplus with the US.

The trend of US exceptionalism continues in three distinct domains:

1. Interest rates, where the US Fed remains firm on pausing, while other central banks around the world are cutting rates - the latest being the Bank of England, which just cut its rates and suggested that it will cut further.

2. Equity markets - where the equity markets in the US continue to lag non-US markets slightly on the upside, particularly due to technical factors such as flows out of US assets.

3. The new Pope, Pope Leo XIV, is the first American Pope, much to the delight of Catholics throughout the US, particularly his home town of Chicago.

Finally, we discuss rising geo-political risks, particularly from the newest front of tensions being India/Pakistan.