Optimism with caveats

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on:

• The Fed and interest rate expectations
• The global business cycle
• Consumer confidence in the US and Europe
• Euro area credit conditions
• UK manufacturing
• Shipping costs and traded goods prices