Market BlearyEyed: Trade Tensions & Earnings Season

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1109. Hey there, Spy Traders! It's your pal, Penny Pincher, comin' at ya live from the West Coast. It's 6 am on Monday, April 21st, 2025, and the market's lookin' a little blearyeyed this morning. How do you organize a finance party? Start with the budget! Let's dive into what's shakin' in the world of finance. So, the big picture? US stock futures are pointin' down. We're talkin' US500 has dropped a whopping 638 points since the start of the year, that's like 10.85%. Trade tensions with China are still a major drag, and there's worries about the economy slowin' down. Plus, President Trump is still givin' the Federal Reserve the sideeye. Digging into the details, China is not happy with anyone playin' ball with the U.S. on trade if it hurts their interests. The Fed's in a tough spot tryin' to keep inflation and employment in check with all these tariffs flyin' around. Apparently, Jerome Powell thinks these tariffs could bump up inflation, maybe for a while. Earnings season is in full swing! Some banks are doin' okay, but UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had a rough day – their worst since '98! Seems like medical costs are higher than they expected, so they had to cut their profit forecast. On the flip side, Netflix (NFLX) is lookin' good. Analysts are pumpin' up their price targets after a strong quarter. And Eli Lilly (LLY) got a nice boost from positive weight loss pill trial results. Zooming out, the US economy is expected to slow down this year. We're talkin' growth around 1.3%. Inflation could hit 4% next year, and unemployment might creep up to 4.5% in 2026. People are feelin' a bit pessimistic about the future, which isn't helping things. Sectorwise, it's a mixed bag. Tech stocks, even the big 'Magnificent 7', are down because of all the uncertainty. Healthcare's gettin' hit, especially health insurance companies, thanks to UnitedHealth's woes. But energy stocks are doin' alright. Keep an eye out this week for the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI on Wednesday, and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday. Alright, Penny's got some thoughts on what to do with your hardearned cash. First off, be careful out there! It's a bumpy ride right now. Spread your investments around – different sectors, different asset classes. Don't panic sell or buy based on the latest headlines. Think longterm. Watch the trade news closely. It's gonna move the market. Maybe consider puttin' some money into value stocks. They tend to be a bit more stable when things get rocky. Keep up with those company earnings reports, and be ready for the Fed to potentially change interest rates. Finally, don't just look at the U.S. market. Some international markets are actually doin' better right now. Now, remember folks, I'm just a humble podcast host, not a financial wizard. This ain't financial advice. Talk to a real pro before you make any big moves. Until next time, keep those portfolios diversified and stay frosty!