EP73: Iran’s Nuclear Crossroads: Will Regional Tensions Push Tehran Over the Edge to Nuclear Weapons?

Summary:

In this episode, we discuss the increasing likelihood of Iran developing nuclear weapons. The article "Iranians Debate Whether It’s Time To Develop Nuclear Weapons" by Javad Heiran-Nia published by the Stimson Center outlines Iran’s internal debate on this topic, highlighting the growing support for nuclear armament fueled by regional tensions. We explore potential consequences, including a possible arms race in the Persian Gulf, increased security concerns for Israel, and the challenging of U.S. influence in the region. We analyze potential reactions from key players such as the Gulf countries, Israel, and the United States, revealing the complex geopolitical implications of Iran’s decision.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the key arguments for and against Iran developing nuclear weapons?
2. How could Iran's potential nuclear ambitions impact the security and power dynamics of the Middle East?
3. What are the potential international consequences of Iran withdrawing from the NPT?

 

Long format:

Iran’s Nuclear Crossroads: Will Regional Tensions Push Tehran Over the Edge to Nuclear Weapons?

By Justin James McShane

A well written and well researched provocative piece published by the Stimson Center entitled “Iranians Debate Whether It’s Time To Develop Nuclear Weapons” by Javad Heiran-Nia published today 8 November 2024 provokes some comments.

TL;DR:

Iran is debating whether to pursue nuclear weapons or expand its missile range beyond a 2,000 km limit. This shift, highlighted by recent comments from Iranian leaders, reflects mounting internal support for nuclear armament amidst regional tensions. If Iran exits the NPT or changes its defense policy, it could trigger a Persian Gulf arms race, heighten security concerns for Israel, and challenge U.S. influence in the region. The global community is watching closely, as any decision could reshape the Middle Eastern security landscape.

Introduction

The question of whether Iran will develop nuclear weapons or extend its self-imposed 2,000-kilometer missile range cap is increasingly relevant amidst heightened regional tensions and evolving security dynamics. A recent article by Javad Heiran-Nia for the Stimson Center, titled “Iranians Debate Whether It’s Time To Develop Nuclear Weapons,” delves into this complex issue, offering insights into Iran’s internal debate and the potential implications for the broader Middle East. This discussion brings into focus not only Iran’s commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but also how shifts in its defense doctrine could affect security from the Persian Gulf to the United States.

INFORMATION

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is a pivotal international agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and advancing nuclear disarmament. Established in 1968 and effective from 1970, the NPT has become a cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

Iran’s Participation in the NPT

Iran was among the original signatories of the NPT in 1968 and ratified it in 1970, committing to abstain from developing or acquiring nuclear weapons. As a non-nuclear-weapon state under the treaty, Iran is obligated to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections to verify its compliance.

Withdrawal Process from the NPT

Article X of the NPT outlines the withdrawal procedure:

A state may withdraw if it determines that extraordinary events related to the treaty’s subject matter have jeopardized its supreme interests.

The withdrawing state must provide a three-month notice to all other treaty parties and the United Nations Security Council, including a statement of the extraordinary events it considers to have jeopardized its interests.

This provision underscores the gravity of withdrawal, as it could significantly impact international security and non-proliferation norms.

Statements by Alaeddin Boroujerdi and others a growing demand

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a prominent Iranian politician and former chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has addressed Iran’s stance on the NPT. In 2004, he stated that if the UN Security Council were to issue a resolution mandating the suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment, the Iranian Parliament might consider suspending Iran’s NPT membership. More recently he has again stated to beat the drum towards nuclear weapons.

if Israel “dares to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, our level of deterrence will be different. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but if the existence of Iran is threatened, we will have to change our nuclear doctrine.”

He is not alone former Iranian foreign minister, Kanal Kharrazi has said if Israel “dares to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, our level of deterrence will be different. We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but if the existence of Iran is threatened, we will have to change our nuclear doctrine.”

On Oct. 18, nearly 40 members of parliament sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, its top security policymaking body, requesting that the council revise the defense doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran to permit development of nuclear weapons.

The Tabnak news agency, which is affiliated with Mohsen Rezaei, a veteran former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), asked readers for their views. Of 66,000 people who responded, two-thirds were in favor.

The Tehran Times newspaper affiliated with Ayatollah Khamenei wrote in a frontpage editorial on Oct. 8 entitled “Rising call for nukes” that more than 70 percent of the Iranian people want to get the atomic bomb.

Significance of these datapoints

Boroujerdi’s remarks are noteworthy due to his influential role in shaping Iran’s foreign and security policies. His statements reflect the perspectives of key Iranian policymakers and signal potential shifts in Iran’s nuclear policy, which could have substantial implications for regional and global security dynamics. Given Iran’s strategic position and the international community’s interest in nuclear non-proliferation, such statements warrant close attention from global stakeholders.

Iran’s internal debate about pursuing nuclear weapons development has intensified against a backdrop of recent security incidents, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran-linked sites and increased regional pressure. While Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, voices within its government and military are now questioning if a nuclear deterrent could better secure national interests and act as a counterbalance to adversaries in the region, particularly Israel and the United States.

Proponents of nuclear armament in Iran argue that a nuclear arsenal would serve as a strategic deterrent, making it less likely for other nations to act aggressively toward Iran. This viewpoint suggests that the recent conflicts and heightened hostility underscore Iran’s vulnerability and justify the need for stronger defensive capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

On the other side of the debate, some Iranian officials are concerned that pursuing nuclear weapons could backfire. They warn that it might lead to international isolation, as well as sanctions from countries beyond the U.S., including Europe and neighboring states, which could destabilize Iran’s already challenged economy. There are also concerns about escalating a regional arms race, potentially prompting neighboring countries to pursue their own nuclear capabilities.

The debate includes consideration of extending Iran’s missile range beyond the current self-imposed 2,000-kilometer limit. Some Iranian military leaders advocate this extension as a means of bolstering Iran’s defensive reach and ensuring that it can respond effectively to threats at greater distances, which would include targets further across the Middle East and potentially southern Europe. Others, however, are wary of the risks of expanded missile capability, which could provoke preemptive actions or sanctions from other nations and lead to greater instability in the region.

In essence, the discussion within Iran represents a major shift in how some officials perceive the strategic benefits of a nuclear deterrent versus the diplomatic, economic, and security risks associated with nuclear weaponization. This internal debate is emblematic of Iran’s broader reassessment of its defense posture in light of recent threats and could significantly alter its future stance in regional and global security dynamics.

The Aftermath of Leaving NPT

If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, the geopolitical repercussions would be significant, with direct implications for countries in the Persian Gulf, Israel, and the United States, each of which has distinct reasons for concern. In fact, simply announcing an intent to leave the NPT would likely create a sense of destabilization and perhaps a strong reaction.

Persian Gulf Countries

Persian Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, would likely view an Iranian nuclear arsenal as a destabilizing force. Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons could initiate a regional arms race, with these Gulf states potentially seeking their own nuclear capabilities as a countermeasure.

Although Saudi Arabia would most certainly wish to develop its own nuclear program, it does not have a nuclear power plant in the country and therefore is quite far behind (measured in many years) from developing a stand alone nuclear program that would ultimately yield domestically made nuclear weapons. However, the UAE does have a nuclear power plant. Therefore its path to producing its own home grown nuclear weapons is much easier only requiring advanced centrifuges that it could construct on its own because the designs and engineering specifications are unfortunately in the public domain due to AQ Khan. It could have nuclear weapons in months or a year if it entered into a crash program.

Such a race would increase tensions and military expenditures across the region, possibly diverting resources from economic development and escalating security risks. Additionally, a nuclear-armed Iran could embolden its regional influence, intensifying concerns among Gulf nations regarding Iran’s support for proxy groups and its potential to exert more significant political and military sway over regional affairs. This situation would raise security stakes and foster an atmosphere of heightened distrust and instability.

Israel

For Israel, a nuclear-armed Iran is a critical security threat. Israel views Iran’s potential for nuclear weapons as an existential danger due to Iran’s hostile stance toward Israel and its support for anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah. With Iran possessing nuclear capabilities, Israel would likely feel compelled to enhance its own defense posture, potentially considering preemptive or preventive strikes to neutralize any nuclear threat before it fully materializes. This tension could lead to a cycle of escalations, risking direct military conflict between Iran and Israel. Furthermore, Israel might seek closer collaboration with other countries in the region and the West to counterbalance Iran, potentially realigning regional alliances and further polarizing the Middle East.

The United States

The United States response to Iranian withdrawal from the NPT in theory is pretty well known to all of the parties. The incoming president has made no secret of his pro-Israel stance and also his “maximum pressure” approach to Iran.

Launched after the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, the “maximum pressure” campaign involved a series of stringent economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation efforts, and increased military posturing in the region.

The economic sanctions included a campaign re-imposed sanctions lifted under the JCPOA, targeting Iran’s key economic sectors, particularly its oil exports, which are a primary source of revenue. Secondary sanctions were applied, pressuring international companies and countries to cease business with Iran or face penalties, effectively cutting Iran off from much of the global financial system. Sanctions extended to Iran’s metals, shipping, and banking sectors, heavily constraining Iran’s economy and contributing to high inflation, currency devaluation, and significant economic hardship for the Iranian populace. The U.S. imposed sanctions on high-ranking Iranian officials, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the U.S. designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Sanctions extended to entities linked to Iran’s missile program and organizations the U.S. believed were involved in human rights abuses or regional destabilization activities, like Iran’s support for Hezbollah and other proxy groups. The U.S. increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf, deploying additional aircraft carriers, troops, and missile defense systems to deter any potential Iranian aggression. There were specific actions, such as the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a top IRGC commander, in early 2020, which were justified as necessary for protecting U.S. interests and allies in the region. The U.S. engaged in extensive diplomatic efforts to rally allies and partners to take a tougher stance on Iran, though many European allies continued to support the JCPOA. Despite resistance from some allies, the U.S. pursued “snapback” sanctions under the JCPOA, seeking to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, though this move was controversial and met with limited support globally.

If this was Iranian life under the prior Trump administration, if Iran withdraws from the NPT, it is hard to believe that the actions against Iran become anything less and most likely would be far, far worse.

The US, which has historically sought to limit nuclear proliferation, especially in volatile regions, would be deeply concerned about an Iranian nuclear capability. A nuclear-armed Iran could limit U.S. influence in the Middle East and complicate Washington’s ability to protect its allies, especially Israel and Gulf states, without risking nuclear escalation. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear development could undermine U.S. efforts at non-proliferation globally, setting a precedent that might encourage other nations to pursue nuclear weapons if they believe it strengthens their security. For the U.S., a nuclear Iran would likely mean reassessing its military presence and alliances in the region, possibly committing more resources to contain and counter Iran’s expanded influence.

In summary, Iran’s development of nuclear weapons could dramatically shift the regional balance of power, prompting a security dilemma that affects not only Iran’s neighbors but also global actors with strategic interests in the Middle East. The potential for miscalculations and escalations would place all parties on high alert, making diplomatic solutions more challenging and the security environment significantly more precarious.

CONCLUSION

Iran’s potential steps toward nuclear capability and expanded missile reach represent a critical juncture that could alter the strategic balance across the Middle East and beyond. Should Iran withdraw from the NPT or further its nuclear ambitions, the resulting geopolitical ripple effects would be profound, raising concerns about a new arms race in the Persian Gulf, the security of Israel, and the future of U.S. influence in the region. As Tehran navigates its internal debates and weighs regional pressures, global stakeholders remain watchful, recognizing the stakes involved and the urgent need for careful diplomacy in preventing further escalation.

Sources

https://www.stimson.org/2024/iranians-debate-whether-its-time-to-develop-nuclear-weapons/

https://nournews.ir/fa/news/172662/%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%8C-%D8%AF%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%E2%80%8C%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%BA%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%AF%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%85

https://www.isna.ir/news/1403071813914/%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%DB%B3%DB%B9-%D9%86%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/504740/Rising-call-for-nukes