Lebanon: On the Brink of a New Civil War?

For a few years after the Arab revolutions of 2011, Lebanon appeared like a paradox – the historically fragile state of the Middle East that used to be the buffer zone for regional competition had been relatively immune to the turmoil that other countries like Syria or Egypt, were facing. The assumption was that the people of Lebanon still had vivid memories of a 15-year civil war and scars from it were visible on Beirut buildings. However, since 2019, the country has faced a financial crisis that the World Bank ranks among the three worst in the last two centuries. The fall of the Lebanese currency threw many citizens under the poverty threshold. This economic collapse was enabled and aggravated by the inability of the political elite to satisfy the demands of international organisations and governments involved in the recovery plan. Furthermore, the massive explosion at Beirut Port in August 2020 also crystallised the deep divides between political factions, reminiscent of the civil war’s era.

In this context, the panel will explore the drivers of the ongoing Lebanese crisis, the consequences for the country and for the region as well. It will tackle the question of sectarian politics in Lebanon and the influence of Hizballah in the current situation, alongside identifying the role of external powers in preventing the collapse of Lebanon.