In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set of mixed signals. Inflation remains top of mind, if...
In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set of mixed signals.
Inflation remains top of mind, if not top of the range, and reminders such as the negative surprise from the UK (3.8%) abound that complacency would be ill-advised at this juncture. A few weeks ago, in the Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Dr. David Kelly of J P Morgan we described the job market as a "low hiring/low firing equilibrium" and that seems to be the case.
The bond market has been "busy" also sending a series of mixed signals - from the tightness of high yield bond spreads, suggesting not only a confidence in the credit worthiness of most issuers, but also throwing open the question as to where the more shaky issuers have gone? To the private credit market maybe? The other dynamic in bond markets is the low level of demand at the long end of the government bond curve - a global phenomenon indicating lack of trust and confidence in the fiscal positioning of at least four "problem children" - the US, the UK, France and Japan, but in reality few countries have been spared. Staying on the bond market, while default rates seem to be a non-issue we do note that they are higher than average, and have remained so for longer than average. This slow burn higher than average default rate - still nowhere close to the 2008 levels - is affecting most sectors with the exception of energy and power, which again hints at the strain in segments of the economy not lucky enough to be levered to the fortunes of AI.
Equity markets are facing a traditionally challenging month - September - which is typically turbulent both for long term government debt as well as equities.
Another sign of this is the boost to gold, which Goldman Sachs expects could jump to $5,000 an oz if Fed independence erodes, and silver as well as gold have seen their values double in three years. On the theme of currency debasement, the Trump administration's favorable positioning has given a boost to stablecoins and now one issuer (Tether) has suggested it might look to gold, as well as the USD to be its backstop.
We finish with a dose of pondering. Is trust now at a premium, such that lack of trust - whether in the independence of institutions such as central banks, the integrity of public officials (c.f. Angela Rayner and Lisa Cook), the behavior of a CEO (cf. Nestle) or in the financial soundness of a fiscal poilicy - could derail things by sparking uncertainty? It does seem like trust has been a casualty of recent political turmoil, and this may well be driving investors into shorter term positioning (at least with respect to bonds) and "safer" sectors (such as large cap tech) when it comes to equities.
© 2025 Advisory services offered by Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC, (“MGIA”) an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). MGIA is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified.
Trademarks and copyrights of materials referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Index returns reflect total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends and interest. The returns do not reflect the effect of taxes and/or fees that an investor would incur. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. An index is an unmanaged portfolio of specified securities and does not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.
