Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network

We investigate the effectiveness of different machine learning methodologies in predicting economic cycles. We identify the deep learning methodology of Bi-LSTM with Autoencoder as the most accurate model to forecast the beginning and end of economic recessions in the U.S. It provided good out-of-sample predictions for the past two recessions and early warning about the COVID-19 recession. 2021: Zihao Wang, Kun Li, Steve Q. Xia, Hongfu Liu https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.10980.pdf