Professor Hugh White on The Future of US China Relations and What it Means for Australia

It is now clear that the fracture in US-China relations goes very deep. It is not driven by disagreements about trade, freedom of navigation, or even human rights. It is driven by fundamental and seemingly irreconcilable differences between Washington and Beijing about the nature of the international order and their respective roles in it. Washington seeks to preserve its place as the primary power globally, and in East Asia. Beijing seeks to take its place as the primary power in East Asia, and as at least an equal player in a multipolar global order. 

There is little doubt about which side we in Australia would wish to win this contest. But our policy should not be based purely on wishes. It must take careful account of which side we should expect to win. This is now the key question facing Australian foreign policymakers – and it is among the most important questions we have ever faced. Judging that question requires us to consider the global context [including the crisis in Ukraine], the regional balance of military and diplomatic advantage between America and China, the underlying relativities of wealth and power, and the balance of resolve between them.  

In this presentation, Hugh White argued that a sober analysis of these factors strongly suggests that China will win the contest and emerge as the primary power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. That has immense and unsettling implications for Australia's foreign and defence policies today and into the future.