The Mystery of the COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Unraveled (#14) with Dr. Linus Wilson

Dr. Linus Wilson discusses and reads his new study:

SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Implied by the Serology, Antibody, Testing in New York City

Wilson, Linus, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Implied by the Serology, Antibody, Testing in New York City (May 1, 2020). Available at SSRN: 

https://ssrn.com/abstract=3590771

"Abstract

 The SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) has been hard to accurately estimate. It is a key parameter for disease modeling and policy decisions. Asymptomatic spread and limited testing have understated infections in hard to predict ways across jurisdictions. We survey serology, antibody, studies of the COVID-19 infection to find official cases are understated by an average of 25-to-1. Further, we analyze the deaths and infections in New York City to estimate an overall IFR for the United States of 0.863 percent.

...5. Conclusion

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has a lot of uncertainty about the ratio of deaths to total infections. That confounds the calculation of how deadly the novel coronavirus is. The serology sampling in New York City and elsewhere makes estimates of infections more reliable. We estimate that the infection fatality rate (IFR) from serology studies in nine different sampling locations in the United State and Europe is on average 0.38 percent. We analyze the data from New York City in-depth to estimate that the IFR for all ages and genders in New York City was 0.85 percent. New York City is a preferable location to estimate IFR because it has one of the highest infection rates in the world. Thus, random sampling is less prone to an upward bias in false positives. In addition, New York City’s official counts are less likely to understate deaths than in other locations in the United States. We find that the infection fatality rates from New York vary a great deal by age and gender. Females ages 0 to 17 can expect infection fatality rates of 0.001 percent while males of age 75 and over can expect infection fatality rates of 9.127 percent."

Dr. Linus Wilson[1]

Associate Professor of Finance

Department of Economics & Finance

B.I. Moody III College of Business

University of Louisiana at Lafayette

Moody Hall, Room 253

P.O. Box 43709

Lafayette, LA 70504

(337) 482-6209

linus [dot] wilson {at} louisiana [dot] edu

https://www.linuswilson.com

www.financeprofessor.org