Dr. Linus Wilson discusses and reads his new study:
SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Implied by the Serology, Antibody, Testing in New York CityWilson, Linus, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Implied by the Serology, Antibody, Testing in New York City (May 1, 2020). Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3590771
"Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) has been hard to accurately estimate. It is a key parameter for disease modeling and policy decisions. Asymptomatic spread and limited testing have understated infections in hard to predict ways across jurisdictions. We survey serology, antibody, studies of the COVID-19 infection to find official cases are understated by an average of 25-to-1. Further, we analyze the deaths and infections in New York City to estimate an overall IFR for the United States of 0.863 percent.
...5. Conclusion
The COVID-19 pandemic has a lot of uncertainty about the ratio of deaths to total infections. That confounds the calculation of how deadly the novel coronavirus is. The serology sampling in New York City and elsewhere makes estimates of infections more reliable. We estimate that the infection fatality rate (IFR) from serology studies in nine different sampling locations in the United State and Europe is on average 0.38 percent. We analyze the data from New York City in-depth to estimate that the IFR for all ages and genders in New York City was 0.85 percent. New York City is a preferable location to estimate IFR because it has one of the highest infection rates in the world. Thus, random sampling is less prone to an upward bias in false positives. In addition, New York City’s official counts are less likely to understate deaths than in other locations in the United States. We find that the infection fatality rates from New York vary a great deal by age and gender. Females ages 0 to 17 can expect infection fatality rates of 0.001 percent while males of age 75 and over can expect infection fatality rates of 9.127 percent."
Dr. Linus Wilson[1]
Associate Professor of Finance
Department of Economics & Finance
B.I. Moody III College of Business
University of Louisiana at Lafayette
Moody Hall, Room 253
P.O. Box 43709
Lafayette, LA 70504
(337) 482-6209
linus [dot] wilson {at} louisiana [dot] edu
https://www.linuswilson.com
www.financeprofessor.org
”Saving the Toughest for Last: 50th Completers’ Final U.S. State High Points” by Linus Wilson
”Does Difficulty Affect U.S. State High Points Ascents?” by Dr. Linus Wilson, Ep. 19
”The Fed Funds Risk-Premium after the Silicon Valley Bank Run and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)” Ep. 18 by Dr. Linus Wilson
Profitable Timing of the Stock Market with the Senior Loan Officer Survey by Linus Wilson Ep. 17
Estimating the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) Losses from COVID-19 Infections in the United States
GPU Prices and Cryptocurrency Returns. Is the crypto boom creating a semiconductor shortage? with Linus Wilson #15
COVID-19: Save Lives or the Economy? The Benefits of Social Distancing in the Pandemic and the Value of Statistical Life (#13)
The 2020 Presidential Election: A Race Against Mortality (#12) by Linus Wilson
Ep. 11: Clickbait Works! The secret to getting views with the YouTube algorithm by Linus Wilson
Ep, 10: Broken Bucks, Money Funds that Took Taxpayer Guarantees in 2008
Ep. 9: "A Dove to Hawk Ranking of the Martin to Yellen Federal Reserves" by Linus Wilson
Ep. 8: The Fed Boosts CMBS Markets "Toxic Asset Subsidies and the Early Redemption of TALF Loans" by Linus Wilson
Ep. 7: The Federal Reserve's $700 Billion Commercial Paper Bailout with Linus Wilson
Ep. 6: Andrew Metrick Presents "Managing and Preventing Financial Crises" at the 2017 Financial Management (FMA) Meetings in Boston
Ep. 5: Discrete Portfolio Adjustment with Fixed Transaction Costs
Ep. 4: Overpaid CEOs Got FDIC Debt Guarantees
Ep. 3: How to Compare Faculty Pay Across the Business School by Linus Wilson
Ep. 2: Crowdfunding on Patreon on The Finance Professor Podcast with Linus Wilson
Ep. 1: Introducing the Finance Professor Podcast by Linus Wilson
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