Predictions for 2024

2024-01-03

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In my Annual Prediction Show, I review last year's predictions before making my new predictions. Watch my 2024 Predictions on YouTube Let's go: 1. Trump loses the nomination Yes, this prediction is almost as crazy as saying in 2015 that Donald Trump would be the next US President. Few believed that back then, and everyone assumes he will be the nominee in 2024. However, almost every election has at least one surprise, and I'm betting this will be the big surprise. I have low confidence in this prediction. 2. Republicans...

In my Annual Prediction Show, I review last year's predictions before making my new predictions.

Watch my 2024 Predictions on YouTube

Let's go:

1. Trump loses the nomination

Yes, this prediction is almost as crazy as saying in 2015 that Donald Trump would be the next US President. Few believed that back then, and everyone assumes he will be the nominee in 2024. However, almost every election has at least one surprise, and I'm betting this will be the big surprise. I have low confidence in this prediction.

2. Republicans nominate Nikki Haley, not Trump

Who will represent the Republicans if Trump doesn't? Nikki Haley because Ron DeSantis lost his momentum. She is light years behind Trump, but if anyone can beat Trump, Haley can.

3. The Republican defeats Joe Biden

This prediction implies that Joe Biden will win the nomination, not Gavin Newsom (who would be a better candidate) or any other Democrat. If Trump runs against Biden, Biden might win. But any other Republican will defeat Biden.

4. Australian flooding will kill at least 50

This is a conservative prediction. Deaths could easily be in the hundreds.

5. Bitcoin doubles in value during a year of a halving

It will go above $80,000 during 2024 but won't close above $80,000.

6. Ethereum closes at $3333

Because everyone expects a bullish crypto year, I'm nervous that the crowd will (once again) be wrong. Still, it's hard to believe Ethereum will lose value this year, even with assaults from Solana and Bitcoin. Therefore, I'm making a moderately bullish prediction. I won't be surprised if Ethereum reaches $5000 at some point.

7. S&P climbs 7%

After a profitable 2023, the US stock market will likely cool off. Although a recession is priced in, not much other bad news is. Expect a modest year.

8. ANC will lose the majority of seats for the first time in 30 years

After spending 3 months in South Africa in 2023, it's clear that South Africans are fed up with the ANC more than ever. The main problem is that the opposition is fractured. A sloppy, chaotic coalition government will emerge with the ANC still the top dog despite its lack of majority.

9. Jimmy Carter dies

He's been in a hospice for nearly a year. His wife died in November 2023. I hope I'm wrong, but let's appreciate his final months.

10. I finish the manuscript of The Unseen Africa

I've been saying this often, but now I'm super determined. Plus, I finished the dreaded South Africa chapter, so it should be clean sailing for the next half of the book!

Previous predictions

To see my previous forecasts, check out my predictions for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

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