Luxury Home Buying Shifting into High Gear - Toronto - Canada’s Podcast

In this video interview, Samantha Villiard, Regional Vice President, RE/MAX Canada, discusses the real estate company’s latest luxury home market report.

Samantha Villiard

FULL PRESS RELEASE 
TORONTO, April 2, 2024 /CNW/ — With the end of quantitative tightening in sight, luxury home-buying activity in most markets across the country are slowly shifting into high gear as buyers reap the benefits of softer housing values, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada.

RE/MAX Canada’s 2024 Spotlight on Luxury Report examined luxury home-buying activity in 10 markets across the country in the first two months of the year and found that, despite a disconnect between buyers looking for deals and sellers’ price expectations, almost all regions reported a strong start to the year. Ninety per cent of markets experienced an increase in high-end sales, with more than two-thirds recording double-digit growth. Saskatoon led the country in terms of percentage increases, with a 57-per-cent uptick in luxury home sales, followed by Montreal at almost 56 per cent and Calgary at 52 per cent. Edmonton posted a 32-per-cent increase in luxury sales year-over-year, while Winnipeg, Halifax, Toronto and London reported increases of 19.4 per cent, 16.7 per cent, 14.4 per cent, and 9.4 per cent respectively. Only Ottawa saw a decline compared to year-ago levels, with sales down nearly eight per cent.

“While figures remain off peak levels reported during Covid, the upswing in luxury sales signal a return to overall health in the country’s major centres,” according to RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “The ripple effect is already underway, with stronger home-buying activity at lower price points pushing sales into the upper end. In some cities where inventory levels are particularly challenging at the lower end, multiple offers have returned with a vengeance. While that isn’t the case at the top end, pent-up demand does exist, and activity is gaining momentum.”

Lower overall values, strong equity gains and downward trending interest rates are supporting demand for luxury product including freehold and condominium properties in markets across the country. While a disconnect is somewhat hampering activity in larger markets, with sellers holding out for Covid-era values and buyers seeking bargains, those serious about making moves are finding common ground. An ample supply of product exists in most markets, although some neighbourhoods are experiencing exceptionally low inventory levels at sought-after price points. An influx of fresh, new properties in the spring will renew buyer interest and activity, but chronic supply issues will likely persist at the entry level to luxury.

“Equity continues to play a significant role in the marketplace, driving demand at the top end of the market,” explains Alexander. “Although overall gains have been elusive in recent years, a good percentage of buyers who purchased in 2018 and 2019 are well positioned to make their next moves. For example, in the Greater Toronto market, buyers who purchased homes at an average price in 2018 saw equity rise by almost 43 per cent by the end of 2023 ($787,842/$1,126,591). These buyers are coming to the table with a larger downstroke and reduced risk from a lending perspective.”

Luxury home-buying activity is also undergoing change as a younger demographic moves into the upper end of the market. Demand is strongest for newer, well-appointed homes in traditional hot pockets. Turnkey properties are most coveted, although there are some buyers that are willing to renovate. The desire for more space and less congestion is once again an emerging trend, as acreage properties boasting large homes in suburban-rural or rural areas experience an upswing in popularity in London, Ottawa, Edmonton and Saskatoon. Building activity is also making a comeback, with new construction and infill on the rise in half of all markets examined.

Some luxury buyers looking to expand their purchasing power are moving over into markets such as London (drawing buyers from the Greater Toronto Area), Halifax, Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon (drawing buyers from Ontario and British Columbia). However, activity among foreign buyers has fallen dramatically since the introduction of the Foreign Buyer Ban by the Federal Government in January 2023, which it extended through to early 2027. The impact has been palpable in the uber-luxe segment of major markets, such as Metro Vancouver and Toronto, as well as the condominium market in the City of Montreal.

“While the idea of a Foreign Buyer Ban sounds good in principle, it makes less sense in practice,” says Alexander. “The ban was originally intended to make a greater number of properties available to Canadians and reduce upward pressure on housing values. The Bank of Canada’s 10 rate hikes were all that was needed to achieve that objective, all the while supply remains at historical lows.”

Condominiums have been a popular option this year, despite single-detached homes comprising the lion’s share of luxury sales. Condo activity was strongest in Metro Vancouver, where sales climbed close to 70 per cent in the first two months of the year (27 versus 16). Solid condominium activity at the high-end price points was also reported in London, fuelled by empty nesters and retirees, and in Ottawa and Montreal. Halifax, which has limited condo product in the top end, has already recorded four sales to date. Some baby boomers in Saskatoon are also opting to downsize from larger homes in high demand areas to newer luxury condominiums in the core.

“Buyer enthusiasm is evident as the spring market ramps up,” says Alexander. “Yet, despite the uptick, we’re still seeing some factors constraining sales at luxury price points. Most significant is the tax implications at the uber-luxe levels, which have been weighing down the segment, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area.”

On the sale of a $4 million home in Vancouver, for example, buyers will pay $90,000 in land transfer taxes. On the sale of a property of similar value in the City of Toronto, land transfer taxes will set buyers back close to $183,000. While sale under $7.5 million remain surprisingly resilient, only one sale has occurred over that threshold (and it was not located in the City of Toronto). The adjustment to higher taxation levels has been slow, but it is being offset somewhat by pent-up demand, with some deciding they can only hold off for so long. Others, meanwhile, are reluctant to list their properties, impacting supply, or are choosing to renovate rather than take a substantial tax hit.

“Assuming a continuation of current economic fundamentals, momentum is set to climb at luxury price points from coast to coast,” says Alexander. “With recent inflation numbers coming in lower than expectations at 2.8 per cent, the possibility of further improvement in interest rates only strengthens growing optimism. Yet, there is an air of caution as the challenges of recent years remain fresh in the minds of buyers and sellers. Confidence is building, with the light at the end of the tunnel clearly visible. Demand is coming from a mix of high-income professionals/executives, retirees, empty-nesters, Gen X and millennials, newly landed immigrants, as well as large and multigenerational families – a good sign, as the diversity of buyers at the top end of the market today bodes well for its overall health in the future.”

HIGHLIGHTS

Condominium sales are up almost 70 per cent in Greater Vancouver.
Multiple offers occurring in Calgary; some homes selling sight unseen. Some multiple offers are occurring in Saskatoon, although at the lower price points. This may filter upward in coming months.
Alberta markets remain strong – Calgary and Edmonton have been bolstered by affordability, providing buyers with more bang for the buck.
Double-digit sales growth was seen in two-thirds of markets (70 per cent or seven out of ten markets examined), including Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon. London is close behind with a 9.4-per-cent increase in top-end sales.
The uber-luxe market has heated up significantly in Toronto, with a 77-per-cent jump in sales over $5 million (32 vs. 18), split evenly between the 416 and 905. On the west coast, demand for uber-luxe properties has fallen year-over-year, largely attributed to the Foreign Buyer Ban.
Inventory in Toronto is tight in many hot-pocket areas, but values are being held in check for the most part, for now.
MARKET-BY-MARKET OVERVIEW

METRO VANCOUVER

Although softer housing values and greater selection have bolstered sales of detached homes over $3 million in the luxury segment of the Metro Vancouver market in the first two months of the year, strata condominium sales have taken the lead in terms of percentage increases, with sales volumes up 68 per cent year-over-year.

Twenty-seven strata condo sales averaging $4 million were recorded between January 1 and February 29 of this year. In contrast, there were 16 sales during the same period in 2023, with an average price of $4.5 million. Just over half of 2024’s strata sales (14) occurred in Vancouver’s Westside, compared to 11 sales in 2023. Luxury condo buyers at the top end of the market have adjusted expectations, allowing them to sidestep higher interest rates by choosing smaller apartments rather than larger units in the city’s most coveted strata buildings.

While 2024 appears to be the year of the condominium, year-to-date sales of luxury detached properties in Metro Vancouver have climbed as well, rising almost three per cent in the first of two months of the year. One hundred and fifty-five detached homes changed hands over the $3 million price point so far this year, compared to 151 properties sold during the same period in 2023. Nearly half of those sales (74) occurred in the Westside, where the lion’s share of high-end activity occurs in communities, including Point Grey, Dunbar, Kerrisdale, Kitsilano, Kerrisdale and S.W. Marine Dr.

Demand for detached housing at uber-luxe levels has fallen this year in large part due to today’s high interest rate environment coupled with the Foreign Buyers Ban (implemented by the Canadian government in 2023 and extended until early in 2027). For every quarter point uptick in interest rates, a $50,000 increase in income is required. Those factors, combined with local municipal taxes, including a vacant home tax at two per cent of the total value of the property, and a hefty land transfer tax, have proven insurmountable. Just nine detached homes were sold over $6 million in the first two months of this year in Metro Vancouver, compared to 20 during the same period in 2023.

Evidence of the shift in the detached uber-luxe market appeared in the second half of 2023 but has accelerated in the first few months of 2024. Fewer buyers and an increase in the number of high-end detached properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver has resulted in some downward pressure on values, as evidenced from the sales stats. However, many sellers are holding firm, rather than entertaining lowball offers.

Local buyers are the driving force in Vancouver’s housing market, but momentum has yet to reach the upper price points for detached housing. Long-anticipated cuts to interest rates are expected to breathe new life into the city’s luxury segment as the ripple effect moves through the overall market in the latter half of the year. Demand for both condominiums and detached homes at the top end is expected to improve, especially with rate cuts on the horizon, moving through 2024.

CALGARY

Calgary’s juggernaut real estate market continues to advance, with home-buying activity at the top end of the market climbing 52 per cent in the first two months of 2024. Seventy-six single family homes changed hands over $1.5 million between January 1 and February 29, up from 50 properties during the same period in 2023. Nearly 60 per cent of sales took place in February.

Considerable equity gains have allowed local homeowners to step up to larger homes organically in recent years, while luxury buyers from provinces such as British Columbia and Ontario are realizing their dollar stretches much further in the city. The vast majority of purchasers are active in the lower end of the luxury market, stimulating sales between $1.5 million and $2 million. Multiple offers are occurring, and some properties have sold sight unseen in recent weeks. Two-thirds of sales are taking place in Calgary’s inner city – including Mt. Royal, Elbow Park, Britannia and Belair – and in neighbourhoods on the periphery of the core such as the Westside, which offer a balance of accessibility and amenities. Communities on the city’s outskirts make up the remainder of sales, where the combination of the luxury lifestyle and acreage play a substantial role.

Ninety-five per cent of luxury sales are now taking place between $1.5 million and $3 million, with uber-luxe sales over the $4 million price point representing a smaller share of the market. Strong activity at the lower end is likely connected to the mortgage sliding scale and general affordability, with higher interest rates having a greater impact on momentum at the top end. Just over 190 properties are currently listed for sale over $1.5 million, which represents approximately 15 per cent of total inventory. There is a 4.9-month supply of luxury product, which is likely to increase slightly with the spring market just around the corner.

The city is on track for a record year of real estate activity in the high end, with any Bank of Canada cut to interest rates expected to encourage greater activity in the luxury segment. With an estimated 3,500 inter-provincial migrants arriving monthly, the pressure on the middle of the market, priced from $800,000 to $1.2 million, will promote spillover into higher price points, further enabling current homeowners to trade up with relative ease to more expensive homes.

EDMONTON

Edmonton’s luxury market continues to fire on all cylinders as both local buyers and those migrating from Ontario and British Columbia spark home-buying activity over the $1 million price point. Sales of high-end homes are up 32 per cent year over year, with 33 single-family and condominium properties sold between January and February of 2024, up from 25 sales during the same period one year earlier.

Detached homes in the $1 million to $1.5 million range remain the sweet spot in the market, with the vast majority of sales occurring between these price points. Demand has been greatest in infill core areas of South University, near the University of Alberta and the opposite side of the North Saskatchewan River, including neighbourhoods such as Crestwood, Laurier, and Glenora. The suburban outskirts have also experienced a surge in demand, given new construction in areas like Windemere and acreage properties offering homes with considerable square footage. Condominium sales, on the other hand, are fewer and farther between, with just two sales occurring this year, compared to three one year ago.

Large families, multi-generational families, professional athletes, and high-income professionals are behind the push for luxury product in Edmonton. Equity gains have played a role as prices have edged upwards in recent years. Downsizing, lateral moves, and life events have also prompted movement in the market.

The upward momentum in the high end is driven by in-migration and relative affordability, where buyers’ dollars stretch further. An adequate supply of homes is currently available for sale in Edmonton, with many new builds under construction. The landscape is also changing in many established neighbourhoods as tired, older homes are renovated, or if need be, demolished and replaced by custom builds as investors and builders move to meet the demands of today’s buyer.

Continued strength and growth are forecast for Edmonton’s luxury sector, where the high end represents approximately one per cent of total sales. There are 20 properties pending at present, which foreshadows the strength of the overall market heading into the spring. With lower interest rates on the horizon, there’s little doubt that Edmonton’s housing market will continue to thrive throughout the remainder of the year.

SASKATOON

Saskatoon’s luxury market is off to a strong start heading into the traditionally busy spring market. Sales of high-end homes over $700,000 are up 57 per cent in the first two months of the year, with 22 homes changing hands between January 1 to February 29, up from 14 during the same period in 2023.

A healthy economy and an influx of new Canadians and out-of-province buyers have buoyed home-buying activity in Saskatoon. Net international immigration to the province was just short of 30,000 in the first three quarters of 2023, according to Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic estimates, provinces and territories: Interactive Dashboard. The strong demand for housing, coupled with a shortage of available properties, is placing strong upward pressure on pricing. Multiple offers are already occurring at lower price points – $350,000 to $500,000 – and threatening to spill over into higher-price ranges.

Seventy-nine properties are currently listed for sale over $700,000, with 14 conditional offers pending. New home builders are trying to make up for time lost during the pandemic, when soaring construction and labour costs stymied homebuilding activity. Prices for new construction now start at $600,000 in Saskatoon, with pressure building on existing housing stock. The greatest demand exists at luxury’s lower price points, between $700,000 and $800,000 at present, although that could rise in coming months as more sales push through higher price points.

Affordability has been drawing buyers from other provinces and there has been a significant increase in young professionals working in oil and gas, mining, and technology. Many are buying properties with small acreage on the outskirts of town where prices are affordable.

Equity gains have also played a role, helping local buyers to move up to the next level, particularly those in their late 20s and early 30, who tend to stay in the same neighbourhoods where they grew up. Many are choosing to renovate the older character homes on large lot sizes. Infill is on the rise in many established communities as empty nesters make lateral moves, trading larger lot sizes for newer homes with all the bells and whistles. Baby boomers are selling homes in desirable enclaves such as Caswell Hill, River Heights, Mayfair, Buena Vista, Mt. Royal, North Park, and the original homes along the South Saskatchewan River, and moving to some of the newer condominiums in the centre of the city or across the river in Nutana. The trend toward multi-generational living has also contributed to the uptick in luxury sales, with immigration helping to prop up this segment.

With Saskatchewan’s commodity-based economy expected to rebound, demand for homes in Saskatoon’s luxury segment is forecast to accelerate in 2024. GDP growth in the province is expected to be the second highest in the country in 2024 at 1.3 per cent, following on the heels of Alberta, according to the 2023-24 Mid-Year Report by the Government of Saskatchewan.

WINNIPEG

Affluent purchasers were strong out of the gate in Winnipeg’s luxury housing market, with sales up 19 per cent in the first two months of the year. Forty-three homes sold for over $750,000 between January and February of 2024, the most expensive of which topped $4 million, up from 36 sales during the same period last year.

While interest rates have proven challenging for many buyers, the downward trend in mortgage rates has provided some additional incentive for sidelined buyers to take advantage of lower housing values in advance of a Bank of Canada rate drop. Pent-up demand will likely play a significant role in the city housing market once rates fall, placing additional pressure on Winnipeg’s already tight inventory levels. Just 130 properties are currently listed for sale over $750,000.

Most high-end sales are occurring at entry-level price points, typically between $750,000 and $1 million. Most buyers are young professionals, but there are a growing number of multi-generational purchasers who are looking for larger homes that can accommodate several families. In the city’s older luxury enclaves, buyers are looking for dated properties with good bones that are ripe for renovation, allowing them to customize their homes and build value immediately.

Demand for infill product is on the upswing, with teardowns now occurring with greater frequency in Tuxedo and North River Heights, where older character homes situated on sprawling lot sizes are commonplace. While many buyers choose to work within the existing structure, custom home builders typically target homes that have been neglected and require a full gut. In some communities, builders are working with the city to sub-divide larger lots in line with the city’s commitment to increase density.

Depending on their price point, buyers are typically drawn to established communities in Tuxedo, North River Heights, and Victoria Crescent in Norberry, or newer communities in the south including South Pointe, Bridgwater and Sage Creek. These new developments, part of a 15-year development plan between local homebuilders and the Province of Manitoba, are now nearing completion. The average price for a new home in these sought-after communities is close to $1 million.

With affordability driving sales at the lower end of Winnipeg’s housing market, spillover is expected into higher price points in the months ahead. Many buyers are reluctant to place their homes up for sale too early, fearing that they will not be able to find their next home. Those on the fence are waiting patiently for the right listing to come along, and once it does, they will pounce.

LONDON

London’s housing market is off to a strong start overall with sales up almost 30 per cent in the first two months of the year. Multiple offers are occurring unabated between $400,000–$700,000, yet softer demand exists for luxury properties in the city. Fifty-eight properties have sold to date over $999,999, up 9.4 per cent from year-ago levels for the same period. Most luxury home sales occurred between $1 million and $1.3 million, with just 10 sales reported over the $1.3 million threshold, signifying some hesitancy at the high end. The exception to the rule is the rare uber-luxe property that offers acreage (two to 10 acres), a larger home, and a triple-car garage. Impeding activity at the luxury price point is a disconnect between buyers and sellers, with many sellers still listing properties at loftier 2021 values while buyers are looking for deals.

An ample supply of luxury homes is available for sale heading into the busy spring market, where sales of all homes, including freehold and condominium properties, are expected to see increased pressure as the ripple effect takes hold. London continues to experience an influx of buyers from other areas of the province, with the largest segment coming from the Greater Toronto Area. Drawn to the value proposition of the city’s residential real estate and its growing base, these affluent buyers are competing with local buyers at the mid-to-top end of the market. Most of the activity in the higher end is occurring in the Southwest (18 sales), where selection is greatest, and the Northwest (20 sales). The remaining sales are occurring on the outskirts of the city.

Retirees and upgrading millennials are responsible for the lion’s share of activity in the luxury segment, which represented 4.5 per cent of total sales (58/1,036) between January 1 and February 29. Most of the buyers in the city’s luxury market are seeking newer homes that are bolder architecturally, with most offering a modern twist, including an open concept, high ceilings, and all the usual bells and whistles. Older character homes in the city’s most prominent areas close to the university are also experiencing solid demand, but higher price points are proving challenging. Empty-nesters and retirees are opting for condominiums in close proximity to the city core. Many are willing to renovate older condominiums offering good square footage to their specifications.

Home-buying activity in London’s luxury segment is expected to heat up in coming months, with lending rates already reflecting the easing expected to impact overall interest rates in the months ahead. Momentum is anticipated to build as buyer’s move to realize homeownership before housing values climb beyond their reach.

GREATER TORONTO AREA

The Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) luxury market has sprung back to life in the first two months of the year, with home sales over the $5 million price point leading the way. Thirty-two freehold and condominium properties changed hands between January 1 and February 29th, up 77 per cent from the 18 sales reported during the same period in 2023. Of the 32 properties sold over $5 million to date, 17 sales occurred in the 416, while 15 were located in the 905. While the new municipal land transfer tax on the luxury segment in the City of Toronto has had some effect on housing sales at the $3-million-plus price point, sales over $7.5 million have borne the brunt, with only one sale occurring over $7.5 million to date, compared to three during the first two months of 2023.

Overall luxury sales priced over $3 million are trending higher than year-ago levels, with 167 freehold and condominium properties sold between January and February, up more than 14 per cent from the 146 sales that were recorded during the same period last year. Demand is particularly strong between $3 million and $4 million for detached product, but activity in this range is largely hampered by fewer listings available for sale. Just 115 properties were available for sale between $3 million and $4 million in the central core heading into the traditionally busy spring market. Some communities were down to single-digit inventory levels, including Leaside (3); Cedarvale, Humewood, Forest Hill South, and Yonge-Eglinton (5); Banbury-Don Mills (7); the Beaches (4); and Stonegate-Queensway (5).

Realtors with interested buyers have been in constant contact with other realtors regarding upcoming listings in coveted hot pockets and heated price points. Inventory levels remain tight throughout the Greater Toronto Area, with few new listings coming to market at the top end. At least one-third of properties currently listed for sale over $10 million are carryovers from 2023. The disconnect between buyers and sellers remains an issue at luxury price points, where many sellers still expect their homes to fetch similar value to that of the Covid years. Buyers, particularly at uber-luxe levels, are submitting offers at 80 per cent on the dollar but quickly realize that high-end sellers are holding their ground in anticipation of a stronger luxury market down the road. Some areas are more impacted than others, with the Bridle Path in a world of its own, given that listings are especially scarce in the neighbourhood.

Some downsizing is also occurring in the market, with empty nesters and retirees making more lateral moves into luxury condominium apartments, townhomes, and new builds on smaller-sized lots in desirable neighbourhoods. Eleven condominiums have sold for more than $3 million in the first two months of the year, compared to 10 between January and February of 2023. Despite strong demand, new builds on small lots are few and far between.

Interest rates remain the greatest roadblock to homeownership at present, with many waiting on the sidelines for rate cuts. It’s anticipated that once rates start to fall, Toronto’s housing market will be exceptionally robust, with pent-up demand the driving force behind heated home-buying activity.

OTTAWA

While luxury home-buying activity in Ottawa was strong out of the gate, sales softened somewhat in February with affordability taking a backseat to inventory. Just 48 freehold properties priced over $1.2 million changed hands in the first two months of 2024, down over seven per cent when compared to the 52 sales that took place between January and February of 2023.

Fewer homes are listed for sale at the top end of the market this year, which has hampered sales activity to some extent. Less than 400 properties are currently available over $1.2 million, 30 per cent of which are priced over $2 million.

Equity has played a role in luxury sales this year, as existing homeowners seek to leverage gains against softer housing values. When combined with lending rates that are trending lower, buyers are finding that affordability has improved and what was once beyond their grasp is now attainable.

Buying patterns have also changed in the high end this year, given increased demand for detached properties that offer greater privacy and larger lot sizes. As a result, there have been more sales occurring in suburban-rural neighbourhoods, including Stittsville, Kanata, Riverside South, Greely, and Manotick. Demand for more traditional areas, such as McKellar Heights and Westboro, have experienced an uptick. Fewer sales have occurred in Ottawa’s coveted Golden Triangle.

Luxury condominiums have experienced a slight increase in sales over year-ago levels. Twelve properties were sold over the $800,000 price point in January and February of 2024, up from 10 during the same period in 2023. Condominiums continue to be a popular choice amongst young professionals and downsizing empty nesters and retirees who want to be in the city’s core. An ample supply of condominium apartments is available, with 39 properties currently listed for sale.

Heated home-buying activity at lower price points, characterized by strong demand and multiple offers, is expected to spill over into Ottawa’s luxury market in the second quarter of the year. While a bounce-back is anticipated in the top end, fuelled by lower lending rates and lower housing values, concerns in the civil service sector over the possibility of a federal election could serve to dampen buyer enthusiasm in the short term.

CITY OF MONTREAL

Strong activity early in the year has set the stage for a robust spring housing market in the City of Montreal’s luxury sector. Year-to-date (January 1 – February 29) sales priced over $2.5 million have increased 55 per cent, with 14 freehold and condominium properties changing hands so far this year, compared to nine during the same period in 2023.

As lending rates trend lower and consumer confidence levels climb, more buyers and sellers are expected to enter the top end of the market. While inventory is currently ample at higher price points, much of the existing supply has been carried over from 2023. That scenario is expected to change in coming weeks as sellers move to take advantage of the vibrant spring market. While some luxury buyers are still sitting on the fence, hoping values will fall, increased activity is expected to place upward pressure on pricing in the months ahead.

Pricing is key in today’s market, with local buyers more selective than in years past. Well-appointed homes are generating the greatest interest, especially when located in the city’s premier communities that have withstood the test of time – Westmount, Outremont and Hampstead. Younger buyers, looking for more funky architecture, tend to be drawn to areas like Plateau-Mont-Royal, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie and Villeray, where modern renovations and custom builds are cropping up. New infill properties with the latest finishes, located in established older neighbourhoods have also drawn the attention of some high-end buyers.

While luxury condominiums sales are up over last year, the market has been somewhat affected by the Foreign Buyer Ban. Would-be buyers from France, the Middle East, and Asia have been shut out of the market in recent years, and the extension of the Federal government’s Foreign Buyer Ban to early 2027 has not helped. Evidence of the slowdown is most noticeable at the $800,000 to $1.3 million price point this year.

With the end of quantitative tightening by the Bank of Canada in sight, a much-improved housing market is expected to emerge in the City of Montreal. Sales are forecast to be especially brisk at the lower end of the luxury market, priced under the $1.4 million price point, where multiple offers are expected to be commonplace.

HALIFAX

Despite an overall flattening in residential real estate activity at luxury price points, sales of properties priced over $1.2 million in Halifax reported a 16 per cent increase in the first two months of the year. Fourteen sales occurred between January 1 and February 29, with 10 single-family homes and four condominium/townhomes changing hands, compared to 12 sales during the same period in 2023.

Local executives and newly-landed immigrants have been behind the push for high-end housing in Halifax this year. Some softening in values have contributed to the uptick in activity, with the average price of a luxury property sold in 2024 hovering at $1.56 million compared to $1.73 million one year ago. Halifax’s Peninsula area continues to draw the greatest number of buyers, with 50 per cent of sales occurring in the community to date. The area offers up a limited supply of stately character homes, some offering waterfront with riparian rights, in a picturesque setting within five minutes of the city core. While listings are scarce on the Peninsula, there are several properties in the area that offer potential for renovation where the money invested will usually provide a decent return upon sale. The remainder of sales activity is occurring in sought-after suburban neighbourhoods and on the outskirts of town where waterfront properties offering lake frontage are a popular choice. Newer, contemporary construction is cropping up in established older communities such as Bedford West, where modern homes are quickly snapped up.

An influx of listings early in the year has contributed to greater selection at the top end of the market for buyers but have held price appreciation in check for sellers. This is primarily due to strong upward momentum at lower price points which has pushed more properties into higher price points. As a result, many would-be trade-up buyers have been sidelined, especially at the $800,000 to $1.2 million price point. There are currently 78 properties listed for sale over the $1.2 million price point.

The economic impact of 10 rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in a relatively short period of time has affected a large percentage of local buyers, but falling lending rates are slowly drawing some back into the market at lower price points. On the cusp of the traditional spring market, the forecast is promising. Although the flurry of activity experienced during the Covid era is unlikely to repeat itself, the Halifax housing market is expected to ramp up in coming months.

About the RE/MAX Network
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Mario Toneguzzi

Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024.

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