EP45: What is a blue water navy?

Summary:

In this podcast, we propose a new standardized definition for a blue water navy, outlining the key capabilities required for a navy to project power globally. We then categorizes various navies around the world into tiers based on this definition, examining the strengths and weaknesses of each navy. We highlight the United States Navy as the only Tier 1 navy, possessing unparalleled global reach. Tier 2 includes France, Japan, the UK, and Italy, though the UK's status is debated due to ongoing fleet maintenance and modernization challenges. Italy is a unrecognized navy that definitely deserves to be here. Tier 3 consists of China, India, and Russia, all of which have formidable forces, but lack the sustained operational and logistical capabilities for global reach.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the key characteristics that define a blue water navy?
2. How do the navies of different countries compare in their capabilities and strategic goals?
3. What are the current trends and challenges facing blue water navies globally?

Long format:

What is a blue water navy?

The term blue water navy is tossed about so much, but did you know there’s no universal definition?

I propose one.

TL;DR: Definition and Analysis of a Blue Water Navy

Oddly enough there is no standardized definition in geopolitics or even in the military for what the term “blue water navy” means. Within the deep dive I offer one.

Top Tiers:

Tier 1: USA – unmatched global capability.

Tier 2: France, Japan, the UK (questionable), and Italy.

—UK: Facing fleet maintenance and modernization challenges, limited carrier availability.

—Japan: Recently expanded carrier capabilities, though constrained by constitutional defensive-only policies.

—Italy: Often overlooked, possesses the capability for global operations.

Tier 1 and 2 countries meet the proposed standardized definition and therefore ought to be considered “blue water navies”.

Tier 3: China (PLAN), India, Russia. Each have formidable forces but…

—India’s mindset prevents its desire to operate much out of its EEZ

—PLAN and Russia lack the sustained operational and logistical capabilities needed for global reach. Plus, Russia at the present has no functioning aircraft carrier.

WHAT IS A BLUE WATER NAVY? A PROPOSED STANDARDIZED DEFINITION 

Here is a proposed standardized definition of “blue water navy” that I suggest.

A blue water navy is able to independently and regularly sustain and operate in open ocean at distance from your own territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) a force projection to both deliver a large number of combat troops and associated logistics and also protect long distance shipping lanes vital for your home country’s trade.

Sustained means measured by at least one month of force projection activities with support as well as full time shipping lane protection.

Plus, there has to be a component of demonstrated force projection and shipping lane protection orientation if not actual capabilities beyond one’s EEZ.

A blue water Navy must have the capability to detect, identify and engage targets over the horizon. This implies some degree of sophistication in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) as well as weapon capabilities.

I do think that some static features to serve as minimum requirements would be necessary to serve as thresholds. I propose:

1. At least one functional aircraft carrier that is open seaworthy.
2. A cadre of cargo ships that can be used in trade and/or logistics enablers for far off force projection.
3. Submarines (both attack and Ballistic missile submarines)
4. Cruisers
5. Destroyers
6. Frigates
7. Landing craft

With that in mind, we examine the candidates.

TIER 1:

Tier one and standing all alone at the top is the USA.

TIER 2:

Tier two is France, Japan and perhaps the UK and Italy.

There’s unlikely to be a debate that France or the UK belongs on this list. The UK is teetering on the edge of being delisted. The UK is withdrawing quite a bit. The UK is undergoing fleet maintenance and modernization issues. The Royal Navy is getting rid of its entire minehunter fleet. Delays in procurement programs make it difficult to maintain older ships, which can then be unavailable for operations for extended periods. As of February 2024, the UK's aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth was sidelined due to a propeller shaft issue. The HMS Prince of Wales only in September 2024 returned to service after issues.

Where there may be disagreement is including Japan and Italy. But let’s look closely.

Japan makes the list as of October 21, 2024, when the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) reached a milestone in its aircraft carrier capabilities as a U.S. Navy F-35B Lightning II conducted its first landing on the JS Kaga (DDH-184). Japan possesses a fleet of highly advanced warships including destroyers with powerful missile systems, capable submarines, and helicopter carriers, allowing for multi-mission operations in distant waters. It boasts two multi-purpose operation destroyers (de facto aircraft carriers), two helicopter carriers (called helicopter destroyers), 26 destroyers, 10 small destroyers (or frigates), six destroyer escorts (or corvettes), 22 attack submarines, 29 mine countermeasure vessels, six patrol vessels, three landing ships and 30 minesweepers. Article 9 of Japan's constitution prohibits the country from maintaining a military for offensive purposes, technically limiting its ability to project force far beyond its borders. It is developing an Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade to conduct operations on land from the sea. Japan’s close cooperation with the US through joint exercises and technology sharing, leveraging the US's expertise in force projection. Japan does not have nuclear submarines.

The Italian Navy doesn’t get the respect I think it should. Let’s look at it objectively using the above criteria and definitions. The Italian Navy possesses the capabilities to operate effectively across vast ocean expanses, far from its home shores, including a fleet of modern warships like aircraft carriers (Cavour and Giuseppe Garibaldi), amphibious assault ships, destroyers, and submarines, allowing it to deploy and participate in multinational operations in distant regions like the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, demonstrating its ability to project power on a global scale. This is further supported by its routine participation in large international naval exercises like RIMPAC. The Italian Navy has a well-maintained and technologically advanced fleet with various types of surface combatants and submarines. It has on order and therefore demonstrated its commitment to modernize and expand its capabilities. Italy does not have nuclear submarines.

TIER 3:

Tier three is PLAN, India, Russia

These tier three navies don’t make the cut to blue water navy. Let’s talk about why.

PLAN

The Chinese have a very formidable force on paper. It is the world’s largest navy by number of hulls. It has 12 nuclear submarines with half being attack types and half being boomers. It has three aircraft carriers. It has 32 landing ship tanks, 33 landing ship mediums, and 4 landing helicopter docks. Overall, it has 79 submarines. It has 62 destroyers, 58 frigates, 75 corvettes, 150 missile boats, 26 submarine chasers, over 17 gunboats, 36 mine countermeasure vessels, 19 replenishment ships and 23 auxiliaries. And it is growing.

What makes it not a blue water navy is logistics,  sustained force projection realities and its orientation. The PLAN fleet lacks the necessary logistical infrastructure, operational range, and global basing capabilities to project significant military power across vast expanses of the open ocean. It lacks friendly ports that would be available to it in the time of global conflict. It also primarily focuses its naval operations within its near seas, particularly around the East and South China Seas. This means they are not currently capable of sustained operations far from their home shores like a true blue water navy would be.

RUSSIA

It also has the same logistical difficulties that China has but not as bad. Following the Soviet Union's collapse and limitations in its shipbuilding and fleet maintenance capabilities has made its ships fall into disrepair. Russia currently has no aircraft carriers in service.

INDIA

India also has a quite formidable force on paper. India has nuclear submarines (4). It has about 150 ships. As of July 2022, they have two aircraft carriers, one amphibious transport dock, eight tank landing ships, 12 destroyers, 12 frigates, 16 conventionally powered attack submarines, 20 corvettes, ten large offshore patrol vessels, five fleet tankers as well as various auxiliary vessels and small patrol boats.

Indian military mindset is mostly defensive, non-violence principles really have large mindshare in Indian geopolitical thinking. No one in India is thinking that they should be a global police, other than sticking to Indian Ocean.

Sources:

https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-decline-of-the-royal-navy

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/us-navy-f-35-fighter-jet-just-landed-japanese-aircraft-carrier-213300

https://www.navair.navy.mil/news/US-Navy-partners-Japan-Maritime-Self-Defense-Force-deliver-JPALS-equipment/Tue-02072023-1436

https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-defense-cooperation-japan-acquisition-and-industry#:~:text=Japan's%20latest%20national%20security%20and,well%20as%20regional%20security%20challenges

https://eastasiaforum.org/2022/12/23/japan-steps-closer-to-global-military-power/#:~:text=It%20has%20also%20sought%20to%20augment%20its,destroyer%20and%20air%20defence%20and%20strike%20capabilities

https://www.stimson.org/2023/deterrence-by-denial-japans-new-strategic-outlook/#:~:text=Operationalizing%20Deterrence%20by%20Denial,operations%20to%20dissuade%20conflict%20escalation

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1996/march/italian-navy-major-role-sea-troubles#:~:text=Italy's%20national%20interests%20are%20extended,of%20the%20former%20mare%20nostrum

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/11/09/italy-plans-new-destroyers-for-2028-delivery/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CDestroyers%20are%20fundamental%20for%20a%20blue%20water,of%20maritime%20and%20joint%20operations%2C%E2%80%9D%20Vice%20Adm.&text=%E2%80%9CApart%20from%20carriers%2C%20amphibious%20vessels%20and%20submarines%2C,strike%20and%20task%20group%2Dprotection%20capabilities%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20added

https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/global-maritime-power-russian-navy-faces-an-uncertain-future#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20place%2C%20because,oceans%20for%20some%20more%20years

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/admirals-look-nervous-can-putin-stop-collapse-russian-naval-power-211486#:~:text=During%20the%20Cold%20War%2C%20the,tug%20and%20a%20replenishment%20ship!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/07/russia-aircraft-carrier-kuznetsov-navy-jets-mig-29/#:~:text=The%20Russian%20navy's%20sole%20aircraft,Kuznetsov%20didn't%20leave

https://www.pw.live/exams/defence/list-of-active-indian-navy-ships/