MUFG's John Herrmann is expecting a more moderate increase in headline payrolls for the month of October but another large drop in the unemployment rate. Perhaps a "deep dive" into the October employment is in order?! Separately, as the U.S. election concludes, it is pretty clear we didn't get the "Blue Wave" many expected. At the same time, it does appear likely that Biden will take the presidency (albeit with a much tighter margin than expected). What do all these developments mean for this week's FOMC meeting? Throw in a sharp rebound in growth in the third quarter against an equally sharp rebound in COVID-19 infections and one's investment thesis is "muddy" at best...
In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the October employment report, including his forecasts for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. He also discusses the rebound in the broad economy in the context of the October FOMC meeting.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)