January 4th, 2025 | Fraud, Airline Stocks, Private Prison Boom, Social Security Changes, Tidewater Inc (TDW), Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Carvana Co. (CVNA) & VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)

Watch out for record fraud when shopping.

With technology, shopping has become so easy and set records in 2024 of around $5.3 trillion. While this by itself is a problem as some people are over shopping, it has also invited more fraud than ever before and for the first three quarters of 2024 there was an increase of 14.5% to $8.7 billion of shoppers who lost money to fraud. Two things are happening here. First, consumers may be too emotionally excited about the purchase and they forget to look for scams that could be happening to them. The second item is the scammers are becoming smarter about how to scam people and they are making it more difficult to detect. To avoid being scammed, it is always wise to deal with a company that you know. However, even that may not guarantee your safety. Scammers can now use names that look very similar to the names you know. They can do this by simply adding or deleting a period or a letter somewhere in the title. So before you make that purchase, be sure it is the correct site that you want to be at and you’re not sending your money to some scammer from across the world!

 

Should you be investing in airline stocks with the record year they’ve had?

It has been quite the year for airline stocks and there have been huge one-year gains for United Airlines at 138% and Delta Airlines at 49%. While it was a laggard compared with its peers, American Airlines still posted a strong return of 29%. It is forecasted for holiday travel between December 19th and January 6th, there will be a record number of travelers at 54 million. Since our economy was reopened after Covid, consumers continue to enjoy traveling, which has benefited the airlines. Even with the record number of travelers and the large gains for the airline stocks, they still trade at reasonable price to earnings ratios of 9.7 for United Airlines, 10.1 for Delta and 10.5 for American Airlines. My concern is could this be a value trap going forward? The low price to earnings ratio might suck you in only to see a slowdown in travelers in 2025. We could also see a little bit higher oil prices based on production not coming online quick enough to keep up with demand, which would hurt the profit margins for these companies. While they might look enticing, I wouldn’t be interested in adding these positions to my portfolio at this time.

 

Could you benefit from the private prison boom that may happen in 2025?

In 2025 there could be a huge demand for detention centers and investors may benefit from investing in the private detention center called CoreCivic Inc, trading under the symbol CXW. CoreCivic has a market cap of about $2.4 billion and a FFO on a forward basis of $1.79. The company could benefit from recent statements from ICE saying it will need enough beds to detain a minimum of 100,000 migrants. The agency already has funding for 41,500 beds. Their competitor GEO has a head start already housing about 40% of ICE detainees. It should be noted that CoreCivic was at $14 the day before the election and it climbed to $22 the day after. There was concern that some banks would withdraw funding from companies who participated in the immigrant detentions, however it appears that CoreCivic does not need any new capital to bring on new facilities or bring back idle facilities. The high estimate for deportation would be 1 million people in one year at a cost of $88 billion. It is estimated that there were 11 million undocumented migrants in the US as of 2022. These higher dollars could benefit the private prisons as a quick alternative if there is no room in the county jails. I was disappointed that the company does not pay a dividend, but it has pulled back from a recent high of $24.99 a share to under $22 a share. At the price the stock would trade at a reasonable 12.29x the estimated FFO for 2025. An executive from the private company GEO group spoke about an unprecedented opportunity for their company, it could be a good investment opportunity for the small investor as well.

 

“Big Social Security Changes Coming”

The Social Security Fairness Act is set to be signed into law next week and will impact Social Security benefits for millions of Americans.  This bipartisan bill will eliminate the “Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP)” and the “Government Pension Offset (GPO)” which currently reduce social security benefits for workers and spouses who have public pensions.  The Windfall Elimination Provision applies when someone has worked a job where they paid into Social Security and also a job where they did not pay into Social Security and receive a pension instead.  In this case, the Social Security benefits are reduced based on how many years they paid into Social Security.  The Government Pension Offset applies when a spouse is entitled to a Social Security spousal or widow benefit but they also worked a job where they did not pay into Social Security themselves.  In this case, the amount of their pension reduces the Social Security benefits they are entitled to receive.  With the passing of this new Social Security act and the elimination of the WEP and GPO, Americans who were having Social Security benefits reduced will no longer see a reduction.  This is one of the largest changes to Social Security in the last several years.  The downside is, the increased benefits will cause the Social Security trust fund to run out sooner, even if the elimination results in a fairer benefit system.

 

 Companies Discussed: Tidewater Inc (TDW), Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Carvana Co. (CVNA) & VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)