Episode 1412 Will Trump Stop Xi? Taiwan, Power, and the Risk of War

In Episode 1412 of Blind Magic Communications the host delivers a solo reflection on VP Day in Australia and the growing geopolitical tensions over Taiwan. The episode explores the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the looming risk of a wider conflict, and how recent global events could shape the next five years.

The host examines President Trump’s likely response, arguing he is unlikely to automatically commit U.S. forces to defend Taiwan. Instead, Trump’s record of “peace through power,” precinct military strikes (citing action in Iran), massive investment in U.S. military technology, and heavy use of economic tools—tariffs and sanctions—are discussed as the primary levers he would use to deter Beijing. The episode considers the consequences of military versus economic pressure and why economic measures are the preferable route.

Discussion also considers the roles of regional actors: Japan’s potential reaction, the implications of the AUKUS partnership, and how allied responses could amplify American pressure. The host questions President Xi’s internal accountability under China’s communist system, warns of the dangers of unilateral decision-making, and expresses hope that Xi will act rationally rather than resort to military aggression.

Alternative strategies China might use—economic and political infiltration, corporate influence, and soft power—are mentioned as less catastrophic but still consequential paths. The host reiterates that U.S. economic and military strength presents significant deterrence, while urging restraint and strategic thinking from all parties to avoid catastrophic escalation.

Episode note: this is a solo commentary with no external guests and is presented as Episode 1412 of Blind Magic Communications.