Ep. 57: This Month’s CPI - Not What the Fed Needed!

On Friday, the Inflation Guy thought no one would care about this month's CPI given the bank failures starting with Silicon Valley Bank. But actually, this number turns out to be quite important - the Fed needed a soft report, so that there would be no conflict between the rate trajectory needed to calm markets and support banks (lower) and that needed to quell inflation and inflation fears (higher). Whoops. Median CPI is still rising, putting the Federal Reserve...really, for the first time since the tightening began...in something of a box. Also, has anyone noticed that nearly 500bps of tightening hasn't slowed inflation? Maybe rate hikes are the wrong focus? Nah.