FOMC tomorrow: worth hedging the ”sell-the-fact” risk

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LwsIpc   -

Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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