Unf*cking The Republic

Trump and the Black Jelly Bean Theory: CLOs Echo the MBS Fiasco from the GFC.

The New York Fed released a troubling report detailing the risk of Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) exposure in the insurance industry. Over the past several years, private equity has taken larger and larger stakes in insurers who are historically risk averse. But now they’re acting more like hedge funds in their investment strategies and have more than $2 trillion in corporate debt exposure and nearly $300 billion of it is in mezzanine financing packaged much in the way mortgage backed securities (MBS) were in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation, a renewed round of tariffs, elevated oil prices, the war in Iran and historic consumer debt, the economy is like a tinderbox. The jelly bean theory holds that you can only reach into the jar so many times before you eventually pick the black jelly bean. Apologies in advance to all those who like black licorice flavored jelly beans. Resources Bloomberg: Oil Takes Out $100 to Hit Two-Month High as Iran War Expands Reuters: Trump to impose ‘forced labor’ duties on Friday as temporary 10% US tariffs expire The New York Times: What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs on Canada, and What’s Next Brookings: Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update Bloomberg: The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline The New York Times: Alphabet Quadruples Profit to $112 Billion, Fueled by A.I. Investments CNBC: See how much prices have increased since 2020 — in one chart Bloomberg: Long Bonds Are Ringing a 2008 Alarm Bell New York Fed: Insurance Companies and the Growth of Corporate Loans’ Securitization Investopedia: Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organization (NRSRO) Definition The DESK: Rules & Ratings: Ratings agencies spar in private ratings legitimacy debacle UNFTR Resources Video: Trump is Running Us Off a Cliff | CLOs Echo the Global Financial Crisis. Episode: Is Private Credit the Pin That Pops the Bubble? Essay: Trump and the Black Jelly Bean Theory. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Omnibus (07-23-26).

Max and 99 are back for another round of Omnibus. They hit headlines on the Trump administration restricting visas for foreign journalists, tribes suing to block the gutting of the Endangered Species Act, SpaceX’s massive share unlock, and a defense of reading books in an era of mass literary abandonment. Then they tackle listener emails on coordinating progressive media against AIPAC, whether MMT is 1920s Germany, and some episode clarifications. Chapters Intro: 00:00:18 Headlines: 00:15:14 Emails: 00:44:38 Beyond the Bullshit: 00:59:42 Memberships: 01:16:15 Outro: 01:17:08 Resources The New York Times: The Maduro Case May Be About to Take a Hairpin Turn Politico: Taylor Farms still tied to cyclospora outbreak despite ‘false positive,’ FDA says Mother Jones: Tribes and Environmental Groups Sue to Block Trump’s Gutting of the Endangered Species Act Reporters without Borders: US imposes sweeping visa restrictions on foreign journalists, hindering global coverage of American affairs TIME: In Defense of Reading Books Bloomberg: SpaceX’s Great Unlocking Begins With $116 Billion Share Release Book Love David Peter Stroh: Systems Thinking For Social Change: A Practical Guide to Solving Complex Problems, Avoiding Unintended Consequences, and Achieving Lasting Results Marie Arana: Bolivar: American Liberator UNFTR Resources Video: Trump Is a Useful Idiot for the People Behind the Scenes -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shitty: The Quest to Make Everything Terrible.

Everything is getting worse, but the country hasn’t collapsed. This is all by design. Donald Trump is a useful idiot for the people behind the scenes and Project 2025, most notably Russell Vought. The Trump administration is using the nation’s finances like a personal piggy bank for themselves and large corporations while gutting agencies that provide critical services. The misconception is that Trump is driving things into the ground. He’s not. He’s just making things so shitty that the corporate state looks good in comparison. Resources ProPublica: “Their Entire Apparatus Is Exposed to Our Strategy” ProPublica: “We Want the Bureaucrats to Be Traumatically Affected” Yahoo: This Trump Official Promised To Traumatize Federal Workers — Watch His Words Come Back To Haunt Him The New York Times: Two Dead and Scores Rescued as Flooding Engulfs Central Texas IMF: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026: Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology ProPublica: “Put Them in Trauma”: Inside a Key MAGA Leader’s Plans for a New Trump Agenda The New York Times: Why Silicon Valley’s Most Powerful People Are So Obsessed With Hobbits U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M06 Results U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2026 M06 Results U.S. News: Trump Administration’s Changes to the CFPB Cost Americans $19B, a New Report Says KFF: In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year National Association of Realtors: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 5.4% Decrease in June The New York Times: Cyclospora Cases Rise Rapidly, With No Source Yet Confirmed The New Yorker: The Human Cost of DOGE’s War on U.S.A.I.D. The Washington Post: The gaps in CDC’s public health data are creating dangerous blind spots Axios: Measurement tweaks will make inflation data look better UNFTR Resources Episode: “Russputin” and the Tsar. Episode: Project 2025. Video: U.S. Financials in Free Fall | Graham, McConnell, and the Strait of Hormuz Video: Trump Is a Useful Idiot for the People Behind the Scenes. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On The Record (07-21-26).

This week we went to see The Odyssey and came out thinking about Bronze Age collapse, because Nolan’s Odysseus is haunted by the wreckage of a civilization that mistook conquest for strength—and the parallels basically write themselves. Then we checked in on the Leading Economic Index, which has been declining for years while the coincident index keeps climbing, and the gap between those two lines is the gap between Wall Street and everyone else: the market’s fine, the C-suite’s fine, but the person trying to build or buy a house is living in a completely different economy. Chapters Intro: 00:00:38 Quick Takes: 00:01:37 Max Notes: 00:07:53 Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:14:26 Chart of the Week: 00:17:16 Headlines: 00:19:48 Outro: 00:20:53 Resources Guardian News: Britain’s new prime minister Andy Burnham makes address NBC News: Trump imposes 50% tariffs on dairy, alcohol, and cars from Canada Reuters: Doctors question evidence behind Pentagon plan for testosterone screening Fox Business: Bessent delivers remarks on far-left political terrorism Netflix: Bill Maher Mark Twain Prize Middle East Eye: US influencer Clavicular’s ‘Israelmaxxing’ propaganda trip ends in national scandal Forbes: Here’s The Odyssey’s Budget And Break-Even Point At The Box Office Africa Is a Country: Odyssey to Africa’s last colony Drop Site News: Jeremy Scahill and Ro Khanna CLASH Over Palestinian Armed Resistance and Iron Dome The Conference Board: Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined in June and Partially Reversed Gains from Prior Two Months ACLU: Defending Our Vote: The ACLU’s election safeguarding program Grist: New York governor orders first statewide data center moratorium The Lever: Repeat Food Contaminator Gave $2.2 Million to GOP. Now Thousands Are Sick UNFTR Resources Video: On The Record 7-21-26 (The Odyssey | Pete Hegseth Loves Buff Dudes | Clavicular in Israel.) Essay: Quite the Odyssey. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On The Record (07-14-26).

This week we read the federal budget the way it’s meant to be read: as a moral document. What it shows is individuals paying more, corporations getting refunds, classrooms getting gutted, and the pentagon getting fed, all while the deficit stays exactly where it always was. The “fiscally responsible” costume is just that. Then we looked at the strategic petroleum reserve, which is sitting at 1983 levels after nearly 100 million barrels drawn down since the Iran war began—and with China about to reenter the market and the strait still choked off, the traders who’ve been keeping oil prices contained are running out of room. Chapters Intro: 00:00:38 Quick Takes: 00:01:25 Max Notes: 00:05:57 Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:18:04 Chart of the Week: 00:19:28 Headlines: 00:21:35 Outro: 00:22:36 Resources ABC News: Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister will complete the remainder of his term Fox News: Trump REVEALS what Lindsey Graham told him before his death CNBC: Elon Musk and Sam Altman spar on X after Apple files OpenAI lawsuit The New York Times: How Marco Rubio Is Running Venezuela From Afar PBS News: Who is Darline Graham Nordone, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister? Peter G. Peterson Foundation: Chart Pack: Defense Spending CNN: Iran war heats up while US weapon stocks remain depleted, risking military’s ability to fight future wars Dropsite News: Inside Israel’s Plan to Ethnically Cleanse Palestine’s Jordan Valley eia: Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR Reuters: Crude stocks in US strategic reserve fall 3 million barrels to lowest level since 1983 In These Times: AI’s Rise is Being Fueled by the Sprawling U.S. Military State Jacobin: Everybody Should Welcome Nationalizing AI Truthout: McConnell’s Been on Sick Leave for a Month. US Workers Aren’t Guaranteed a Day. UNFTR Resources Video: On The Record 7-14-26 (U.S. Financials in Free Fall | Graham, McConnell, and the Strait of Hormuz.) Essay: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bullshit Budget. Video: These ‘New Democrats’ Are Literally Aligned with Trump’s Plan -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.