The Conditional Release Program

Two Jacks 167: From Pettingill to Perrottet — Corruption, Concussion, and Carlton’s Revival

This week it's NVIDIA Nemotron Ultra through Perplexity - my sub is running out soon. It made some pretty amazing mistakes and totally made up the references list at the end. I dunno, stick to making chips fellas cause this is a bit shit. Still, it's better than nothing. The clankers are still doing okay at the shownotes thing. Enjoy! --------SummaryMr. Insider and Hong Kong Jack open with the passing of Melbourne matriarch Kath Pettingill (91) and the grim, darkly comic history of the Pettingill–Allen clan — Dennis “Dr Death” Allen, the Stevenson Street fortress, and the Wall Street executions. They pivot to Victoria’s suppression-order addiction (half the national total) and the Ralph Carr rape conviction that took 48 hours to un-suppress, then dissect IBAC’s Operation Richmond into the UFU/CFA/FRV stitch-up — six years, no corruption findings, just “serious and concerning conduct.”Cross the border to NSW: ICAC’s Operation Rosne is live, Jean‑Claude Perrottet is squirming in the box as Nassif’s $2M bribe tapes play, and Jeremy Greenwood is ghosting from London. A detour through minority-government history (Gillard–Greens–Oakeshott–Windsor) segues into a housing-market stoush: banks forecasting −10%, the Budget saying +2%, and Tanya Plibersek claiming “best time ever for first‑home buyers.”The Cambridge sociologist Jason Arday unravels — non-verbal till 11, 600 miles in six days, 30 marathons in 35 days, a brain tumour, 7‑Up kid, £5.5M raised, AI‑written resignation letter — and the ABC’s Four Corners hiring ex‑Mongol Mahmoud Fazal is flagged for next week. Fauci’s diaries, RFK Jr.’s peptide purge, and COVID revisionism draw a furious rant. Ukraine’s drone supremacy, PLA drone investment, and why NATO spending metrics miss the point.Sport: Trump’s “club champ” grift, Geelong’s secret concussion waiver (chaired by AFL Commission boss Craig Drummond), the wildcard-round tanking farce driven by betting partners, Tasmania signing Nigel Lappin, and Carlton’s miraculous turnaround under Josh Fraser — Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Wade Derksen, and a game plan now built on turnover footy. Matthew Stokes on club culture and troubled players. The Hundred’s kid‑focused gimmickry, AFLW Ireland’s skill explosion at North Sydney Oval, and a teaser on NRL/AFL media capture for next week.Timeline Time Segment0:25 Intro & Housekeeping – 7 Aug 2026, Hong Kong weather (“it’s called summer”), Melbourne heat.1:18 Kath Pettingill & the Pettingill–Allen Dynasty – “Granny Evil” dies at 91; Dennis Allen (Mr Death), Peter Allen, Victor Pierce, Wall Street murders, Stevenson Street Richmond/Cremorne, Brian Murphy’s $1,400/week payoff, chainsaws & 44‑gallon drums.7:03 Victoria’s Suppression‑Order Addiction – >50% of national total; Ralph Carr (Dusty Martin’s ex‑manager) convicted of raping employee; 48‑hour delay lifting suppression; “if you’ve got money you get away with it.”12:29 IBAC Operation Richmond (UFU/CFA/FRV) – Six‑year inquiry; “serious & concerning conduct” but no corrupt conduct; political fix for metropolitan/country fire boundary; “vanilla ICAC” vs NSW theatre; Dan Andrews’ golf clubs.20:39 NSW ICAC Operation Rosne – Young Liberal operatives (Assaf, Ellis, Greenwood, Perrottet brothers); Jean Nassif ($2M bribe allegation, now in Lebanon), Michael O’Hara, Catholic Schools NSW (Dallas McInerney); targeting David Elliott & Building Commissioner David Chandler; Jean‑Claude Perrottet in the box, audio ambush.32:41 Minority Government & Coalitions of Convenience – Gillard–Greens–Oakeshott–Windsor “wedding ceremony”; Paul Kelly’s verdict; “you don’t need formal agreements”; Jim Cairns 1970s parallel; all the 2010 plotters now in gaming.40:52 Housing Market: Crash or Soft Landing? – Banks: −10% / $230B wiped; Budget: +2%; Tanya Plibersek’s “best time ever” claim; negative equity, bank forbearance, 1990s commercial‑property playbook.46:30 Cambridge Professor Jason Arday: Fantasist or Fraud? – Youngest Black professor; didn’t speak till 11, illiterate till 18, 600 miles/6 days, 30 marathons/35 days (last 9 with hairline fracture), 7‑Up claim, £5.5M raised (walked back), brain tumour during PhD; Cambridge defends, then folds; AI‑written resignation letter; Guardian pile‑on; “sociology standards are fuzzy.”51:23 ABC Four Corners & Mahmoud Fazal – Ex‑Mongols sergeant‑at‑arms hired; journalistic ethics vs “great life story”; teed up for next episode.56:34 Fauci, RFK Jr & COVID Revisionism – Fauci takes the Fifth; HHS servers now under Kennedy; “ICUs were empty” lie; double‑blind placebo ethics (Salk polio regret); FDA pulls six peptides off ban list with zero human data; “grifters at 4,000% markup”; healthcare workers threatened.1:04:05 Ukraine–Russia: Drone Wars & Asymmetric Shift – Ukrainians lead in AI‑guided, radar‑invisible drones; defender’s advantage today ≠ tomorrow; PLA investing heavily; US big‑bureaucracy lag; Taiwan lesson — boots still needed.1:08:56 Golf: Trump’s “Club Championship” – 80‑yo, 180‑yard drive, four‑handicap in prime; member confirms nudging, caddy collusion, card‑swapping; “four or five handicap? I’d never play again.”1:10:48 AFL: Geelong’s Secret Concussion Deal – Undisclosed player, multiple concussions, waiver signed, cleared by board (chair Craig Drummond → AFL Commission chair); rival clubs furious; enforceability doubtful; “Geelong get umpired different.”1:14:41 Wildcard Round Tanking & Betting Partners – Greg Swan memo: “pick on merit or scrutiny”; Fremantle 2023 precedent; clubs 6–10 resting stars to keep week off; bookies complain → “don’t bet that week.”1:17:13 Tasmania Devils: Nigel Lappin as Head of Development – “Best development coach in the comp”; development = sustained success (cf. Geelong under Lappin).1:18:45 Carlton’s Blues Revival – Josh Fraser interim; Voss “coached like everyone was Michael Voss”; Fraser: “back yourselves”; turnover footy now elite (1st/2nd in every stat vs Brisbane); Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Taylor Byrne; Wade Derksen’s Darwin-to-rookie fairytale; Curnow→Sydney, Florent/Hayward win‑win; Jacob Weitering return looms.1:27:41 Matthew Stokes on Club Culture & Troubled Players – Ex‑Cat’s own history; secrecy enables; consequences (pay cuts) needed; “don’t let it fester inside the four walls.”1:29:25 Cricket: The Hundred (UK) – 100 balls, 5/10‑ball blocks, 20‑ball max per bowler; ECB: “engage 7–10 year olds”; dominates July/August; “poor man’s T20,” wallpaper cricket; IPL money > Hundred money.1:34:21 AFLW: Ireland v Australia at North Sydney Oval – Sell‑out, Irish diaspora everywhere; skills unrecognisable from Year 1; Gaelic football base; “terrific spectacle.”1:36:09 NRL/AFL Media Capture Teaser – Gus Gould fined $20K for “game’s stupid”; concussion denialism; AFL.com/ NRL.com in‑house content; “incestuous relationship” — deep dive next week.1:38:43 Wrap – Episode 167 recorded 7 Aug; thanks to Hong Kong Jack; see you next week.People & Entities MentionedCategory NamesCategory NamesMelbourne Underworld Kath Pettingill, Dennis Allen, Peter Allen, Victor Pierce, Vicki Pierce, Brian Murphy, Jack (Murphy’s sidekick), Dennis “Dr Death” AllenVictorian Politics/Law Ralph Carr, IBAC, Operation Richmond, UFU, CFA, MFB, FRV, Dan Andrews, Craig Drummond (AFL Commission), Premier Ben CarrollNSW Politics/ICAC Jean‑Claude & Charles Perrottet, Robert Assaf, Christian Ellis, Jeremy Greenwood, Jean Nassif, Michael O’Hara, Dallas McInerney, Damien Tudehope, ICAC Operation RosneFederal/Historical Julia Gillard, Bob Brown, Adam Bandt, Wayne Swan, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott, Jim Cairns, Gough Whitlam, Kevin Rudd, Stephen ConroyHousing/Economy Tanya Plibersek, RBA, major banksAcademia/Media Jason Arday (Cambridge), The Guardian, Mahmoud Fazal (Four Corners), ABCCOVID/Health Anthony Fauci, RFK Jr, FDA, NIH, HHSGeopolitics/Defence Ukraine, Russia, PLA, Taiwan, NATO GDP metricsSport — Golf Donald TrumpAFL Geelong Cats, Craig Drummond, Greg Swan, Fremantle, Ross Lyon, Tasmania Devils, Nigel Lappin, Carlton, Michael Voss, Josh Fraser, Harry DeMattia, Jagga Smith, Taylor Byrne, Wade Derksen, Charlie Curnow, Ollie Florent, Jack Hayward, Jacob Weitering, Matthew StokesCricket ECB, The Hundred, Mitchell Marsh, Marcus Stoinis, IPLAFLW Ireland women’s team, North Sydney OvalMedia Gus Gould, Phil Gould, AFL Media, NRL MediaLinks & References (for show notes)IBAC Operation Richmond Report — https://www.ibac.vic.gov.au/investigations/operation-richmondNSW ICAC Operation Rosne Hearings (live) — https://www.icac.nsw.gov.au/operation-rosneRalph Carr Conviction & Suppression Order Lift — The Age / Herald Sun (early Aug 2026)Cambridge / Jason Arday Coverage — The Guardian “Grotesque racism” piece; Times Higher Education investigationFDA Peptide Decision (6 peptides delisted) — Federal Register / FDA press release, late July 2026AFL Wildcard Round & Tanking Memo — AFL.com.au / The Age (Greg Swan memo leak)Tasmania Devils Announce Nigel Lappin — AFL.com.au / The Mercury (early Aug 2026)The Hundred 2026 Schedule & Rules — ECB / Sky SportsAFLW Ireland v Australia Highlights — Kayo / Fox Footy / AFLW YouTube

Episode 215 - Rod Culleton and Grubisa Update with Chris Baker and Jack

We had a bit of an echo issue with the sound so I had to do a manual edit and at times for the sake of your sanity, Chris' audio was cut out. But I did my best to keep it all in cause this is interesting stuff. Hopefully it works. Due to the slog of the edit I am resigning to AI shownotes. I am tired! These ones are brought to you by GPT-5.6 Terra with Thinking enabled. It's fine - my free year of perplexity is about to run out so I am making hay while the clankers are on my side. Enjoy! ------------------------Episode descriptionJack the Insider is joined by former lawyer and consumer advocate Chris Baker for an update on the Dominic Grubisa saga, before turning to the continuing legal adventures of former senator Rod Culleton and the broader risks of pseudolaw and sovereign-citizen-style claims.Chris discusses developments following the earlier Grubisa episode: bankruptcy and liquidation matters, concerns around company records and client data, the alleged continuation of property-training operations through new entities, and what affected consumers may face. The conversation then shifts to Rod Culleton’s ongoing litigation, electoral-law issues, bankruptcy disputes, and the danger of vulnerable people relying on misinformation when facing repossession or court action.Detailed show notes00:00 — Chris Baker returns. Jack welcomes back Chris Baker, who recaps Episode 209’s discussion of Dominic Grubisa, the asset-protection scheme, and the regulatory and court processes that followed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt01:40 — Bankruptcy, liquidation and CoreLogic. Chris discusses Grubisa’s bankruptcy and the liquidation of the principal trading company, including a judgment connected to the use of CoreLogic/RP Data property information.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt03:45 — Missing records and client data. The pair examine claims that company books, records, computers and databases cannot be accounted for, alongside concerns that a client database may still be used to contact former customers.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt06:10 — Asset transfers and bankruptcy scrutiny. Chris discusses the reported transfer of assets before bankruptcy and the potential for a bankruptcy trustee to investigate or seek recovery of transfers under the Bankruptcy Act.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt07:25 — Property Lovers and PropTix.ai. The discussion moves to the alleged continuation of similar property-program marketing through subsequent entities, including the Hong Kong-registered PropTix.ai, which Chris says was advertising to Australian consumers.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt14:50 — Regulators and unresolved questions. Jack and Chris question the pace and effectiveness of regulatory action, including the role of the NSW Law Society, the Legal Services Commissioner and other authorities. Chris reflects on the impact on people who engaged with the scheme and later participated in complaints or proceedings.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt21:45 — Enter “SovCit Rod.” The conversation pivots to Rod Culleton—former senator, recurring litigant and prominent pseudolaw figure—and the legal actions he has pursued in several courts.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt22:35 — Border closures and High Court litigation. Chris outlines Culleton’s efforts to challenge Western Australian border-closure laws, attempts to revive matters in the High Court, and subsequent proceedings in the Federal Court and NSW Supreme Court.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt27:10 — Habeas corpus for a court case? A discussion of Culleton’s attempt to invoke habeas corpus in relation to a matter remitted from the High Court to the Federal Court—and why the argument did not succeed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt28:15 — Electoral declarations and bankruptcy. Jack and Chris revisit Culleton’s election candidacies, convictions connected with candidate declarations, appeals, and the implications of an undischarged bankruptcy.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt31:05 — The long-running Lester dispute. The pair trace a dispute originating in commercial arrangements from around 2009, Culleton’s bankruptcy, and the succession of court proceedings that followed.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt34:35 — Possible vexatious-litigant proceedings. Chris discusses an application seeking a vexatious-litigant order, what such an order may mean in practice, and why any restriction may be limited to particular litigation rather than a blanket ban.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt39:35 — The danger of repossession misinformation. Chris warns against claims that banks must obtain a particular type of order before enforcing a mortgage, distinguishing between judgment-creditor enforcement and a mortgagee’s powers. He argues that people in financial distress should not be encouraged to ignore lawful court orders or evade service.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt47:40 — Pseudolaw, “paper terrorism” and legal consequences. Jack and Chris discuss the recurring arguments deployed by pseudolaw adherents: claims about invalid constitutions, royal assent, the Crown, bills of exchange, and other theories repeatedly rejected by courts.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt54:20 — Why the movement persists. The episode considers how sovereign-citizen and pseudolaw narratives spread, why they appeal to people under pressure, and the cost—financial, legal and personal—when those arguments fail.C-Rogers-What-s-Sov-Cit-Rod-been-up-to-feat-Grubisa-update-transcript.txt1:01:25 — From online claims to real-world harm. The pair discuss the escalation from internet theories to courtroom disruption and risky conduct in real disputes involving debt, property, police and court processes.

The Two Jacks - Episode 165 - From Crimea to Canberra: Putin Cornered, One Nation Rising, and an Economy Out of Ideas

This weeks ai slop is served up by DeepSeek v4 Pro. I tried to use Kimi but it got stuck generating the notes. So now you get this. Could be worse. Episode SummaryJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack return for a wide-ranging conversation that spans the turbulent state of Australian politics and the precarious state of global affairs. The episode opens with striking Redbridge polling data suggesting One Nation could pick up as many as 19 seats in the upcoming Victorian state election -- a result that would leave neither major party able to form government in its own right. The Jacks explore the mechanics of minority government, the prospect of a marriage of convenience between the Liberals and One Nation, and whether Labor voters in protest mode could deliver One Nation unexpected inroads into heartland seats.The domestic focus then shifts to the Australian economy. Drawing on former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty's recent analysis, the hosts dissect a bureaucracy more concerned with treating symptoms than causes, lamenting squandered billions on unused quarantine centres, infrastructure costs among the highest in the world, and a housing crisis driven by a failure to train enough workers. The conversation turns to political courage -- or the lack of it -- comparing today's risk-averse governing class with the Hawke-Keating reform era, when fringe benefits tax was meant to kill the long lunch but somehow did not.A spirited defence of Emerge Australia -- an advocacy group training GPs to diagnose and treat myalgic encephalomyelitis (chronic fatigue syndrome) -- highlights the government's decision to cut a mere $400,000 in funding, a move Jack the Insider brands disgraceful for an organisation serving an estimated 250,000 Australians. Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme reform also gets a hearing, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials.Internationally, the Jacks confront the escalating dangers of the Russia-Ukraine war. With Ukraine making Crimea increasingly uninhabitable and Vladimir Putin backed into a corner, the prospect of an attack on a NATO or NATO-aligned state looms. The conversation covers Russia's cancelled bond sale, the shifting power dynamic between Putin and Xi Jinping, and thousands of Russian passports arriving in Moldova -- a familiar prelude to intervention. On Iran, the hosts reflect on the Trump administration's military strikes, oil climbing past USD 100 a barrel, and the political consequences for the upcoming US midterm elections.The episode closes with sport: the FIFA World Cup (and Argentina's remarkable ability to unify the football world in mutual disdain), the AFL's handling of the Nicky Winmar domestic violence case and questions of consistency, the end of the Bazball era in English Test cricket, a warm tribute to the late Sir Garfield Sobers, and rugby union's new Nations Championship format.Timestamped Highlights(All timestamps adjusted +25 seconds to account for theme music.)00:00:26 -- Introduction and Banter Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open the show trading observations on air conditioning, long lunches, and the perils of sitting directly beneath the vent.00:01:32 -- One Nation's Victorian Polling Surge Redbridge polling data indicates One Nation could win as many as 19 seats in the Victorian state election. In an 88-seat legislature, that would make a majority for either major party almost impossible.00:02:52 -- Minority Government Mechanics Hong Kong Jack explains the constitutional pathway: if no party wins a majority, the sitting Premier gets the first conversation with the Governor and may be recommissioned to form government.00:04:20 -- A Three-Cornered Contest Jack the Insider argues the Allan government is at the end of the road, but the Liberal alternative inspires little confidence. One Nation may poll well in Labor heartland seats as protest voters look for an outlet that is not the Liberal Party.00:06:33 -- The Polling vs. the Pencil Hong Kong Jack predicts One Nation's polling numbers will soften once voters are alone in the booth with an HB pencil hovering over the ballot paper.00:08:32 -- Commonwealth Games Land in Glasgow The hosts acknowledge the Commonwealth Games have begun -- in Glasgow, not Victoria. The opening ceremony featured King Charles and Queen Camilla emerging from a Doctor Who TARDIS.00:10:50 -- Pauline Hanson and the Tommy Robinson Interview The Jacks dissect Hanson's decision to interview the controversial British figure, with Hong Kong Jack arguing the motivation is straightforward: publicity, good or bad.00:12:12 -- Factions Within One Nation Barnaby Joyce's visible discomfort with the Robinson interview signals internal tensions. Jack the Insider warns One Nation risks veering further towards the "lunar right."00:13:30 -- Two Australias: The Great Dog Divide A detour into the changing culture of pet ownership. Jack the Insider contrasts the utilitarian farm dogs of his Reservoir childhood with the multi-billion-dollar industry of designer dog beds, pushchairs, and booties.00:15:59 -- Bill Kelty's Economic Diagnosis Former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty delivers a blunt assessment: Australian governments have spent decades treating symptoms rather than causes -- quarantine centres never used, infrastructure costs at world-record levels, a housing crisis born of under-investment in skills.00:17:59 -- The Courage Deficit Hong Kong Jack argues the current government, like its recent predecessors, lacks political boldness. The Prime Minister's Labor conference speech seemed "spooked by One Nation" rather than offering a growth narrative.00:19:22 -- The Keating Comparison Jack the Insider revisits the Hawke-Keating reform era, noting the howls of outrage that greeted early reforms -- including fringe benefits tax, which was meant to "kill lunch" but somehow did not. The difference today: social media amplifies every backlash.00:23:02 -- Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Funding Cut An urgent segment on the defunding of Emerge Australia, an advocacy group that has trained roughly 10% of the nation's GPs in diagnosing and treating ME/CFS. The cut amounts to approximately $400,000 -- a sum Jack the Insider describes as negligible in public expenditure but catastrophic for the 250,000 Australians living with the condition.00:26:37 -- The PBS and Australia's Clinical Trial Problem Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials, leaving patients with rare conditions to raise extraordinary sums for overseas treatment. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's pricing structure may require root-and-branch reform, particularly for newly developed drugs.00:29:50 -- What Should Labor Do About One Nation? Hong Kong Jack's prescription is simple: fix the economy and stop saying silly things. One Nation will wither on the vine if economic growth returns.00:30:17 -- Derryn Hinch: The Human Headline Remembered The former broadcaster, senator, and Justice Party founder has died aged 82. The Jacks reflect on a complicated legacy -- a man who transformed Melbourne talkback radio and tabloid television, was twice married to Jacki Weaver, and whose profound impact on the media is tempered by a deeply troubling intervention in the justice system.00:32:00 -- The Glennon Case: When a Headline Cost Children Their Safety Jack the Insider recounts in detail how Hinch's decision to publicly name convicted paedophile priest Michael Glennon during an active trial led to the suspension of proceedings, an eventual overturned conviction, and a four-year window in which Glennon continued operating camps and abusing children -- as many as 20 additional victims.00:38:14 -- Hinch's Media Legacy Despite the Glennon tragedy, Hong Kong Jack credits Hinch with changing the sound of Melbourne radio. The talkback format he pioneered arguably saved stations like 3AW.00:40:32 -- Ukraine and the Battle for Crimea The Ukrainians cannot hold Crimea, but they are making it unliveable. Water, electricity, and supplies have been cut. Crimeans are fleeing en masse. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has effectively ceased to exist.00:42:13 -- Putin Backed Into a Corner Jack the Insider warns that Vladimir Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally. The spectre of an attack on a NATO country -- perhaps a Baltic state -- or on Moldova is real. Putin cannot sue for peace; it would mean the end of him.00:44:21 -- Russia's Economic Pressure Points Hong Kong Jack notes that Russia cancelled a regular bond sale last week after failing to find buyers. The economic squeeze is mounting. Putin and his deeply unpopular party are now being fused together ahead of elections.00:47:13 -- Russian Passports Arrive in Moldova Thousands of Russian passports have been shipped to Moldova -- the same playbook used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine before intervention.00:49:32 -- Iran, the Houthis, and Oil Above USD 100 US strikes on Iran continue. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have struck oil tankers. The price of crude has pushed past USD 100 a barrel -- a politically dangerous number for Donald Trump four months out from the midterms.00:50:33 -- The Netanyahu Pitch for Regime Change Jack the Insider recounts the scene from Swan and Haberman's book: Benjamin Netanyahu presenting a case for US-Israeli combined bombing to achieve regime change in Iran. Trump was impressed; Marco Rubio and the CIA director were not.00:52:56 -- US Midterms: The Democratic Candidate Problem The Democrats' prospects are muddied by candidate issues including the withdrawal of Graham Plattner over sexual assault allegations and the party's persistent inability to select candidates who genuinely connect with the white working class.00:54:40 -- Tim Waltz, John Kerry, and Authenticity Hong Kong Jack contrasts the Democrats' clumsy attempts to project authenticity -- Tim Waltz hunting, John Kerry windsurfing -- with the reality that Kerry was an ice hockey player who once attended a White House meeting with two black eyes from a congressional game.00:58:19 -- The Sickness in American Democracy Jack the Insider argues the two-party lock on presidential politics -- achieved partly by keeping third-party candidates off ballots in roughly 30 states -- is profoundly undemocratic. With 40% of voters now registering as independents, millions have no candidate who represents them.00:59:43 -- Can Trump Disrupt the Midterms? Hong Kong Jack analyses the constitutional limits on presidential interference in state-run elections. Any attempt to use emergency powers would go straight to court.01:03:43 -- Marine Le Pen: France's Next President? Polling around 67%, Le Pen is the frontrunner for the French presidential election. Her felony conviction for misusing EU funds appears to be no impediment.01:05:09 -- Andy Burnham's Fast Start as UK Prime Minister The new PM has hit the ground running with popular measures: a GBP 2 bus fare cap across England, 20% business rate cuts for pubs, clubs, and live music venues, and the scrapping of VAT on domestic electricity bills.01:07:36 -- Britain's Investment Challenge The biggest test for Burnham will be attracting investment. The UK has 11 million working-age citizens on benefits -- a figure now exceeding tax receipts.01:09:03 -- FIFA World Cup: Argentina Triumphs, Trump Photobombs Argentina are world champions, but not before a petition signed by millions demanded their exclusion from the final. Donald Trump appeared on the podium; the Spanish commemorative photos, the Jacks note, did not include him.01:11:07 -- The Refereeing and the Expansion The officiating was patchy, but the expanded tournament format was vindicated. Seeing Cape Verde, Australia, New Zealand, and Iran compete gave the event a genuinely global feel.01:14:23 -- Nicky Winmar, the AFL Hall of Fame, and Domestic Violence The Jacks grapple with the AFL's removal of Winmar from the Hall of Fame following a domestic violence conviction. Jack the Insider questions the consistency: Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett Sr. remain honoured. Hong Kong Jack suggests a suspension rather than permanent expulsion would have been more appropriate, arguing that football cannot be reserved for choirboys.01:19:06 -- Bazball's End: The McCallum Era Concludes Baz McCallum is out as England's Test coach after 49 Tests: 27 wins, 20 losses. Ten of the first eleven were victories; seven of the last nine were defeats. The hosts debate whether Bazball added to cricket's audience even if it could not sustainably win Test matches.01:23:20 -- Sir Garfield Sobers: The Greatest of All Time A warm tribute to the late West Indian legend. Jack the Insider recalls meeting Sobers at the Hilton in Barbados. Hong Kong Jack shares the story of Sobers -- completely ambidextrous -- playing golf off scratch left-handed and off two right-handed.01:27:53 -- Rugby Union's Nations Championship A new format pits Northern Hemisphere sides against Southern Hemisphere sides, culminating in finals at Twickenham. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical anyone will care which hemisphere wins. The 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, however, is selling tickets strongly.01:30:00 -- Sign-Off Jack the Insider thanks listeners and apologises for the previous week's absence due to illness. The hosts promise to return on or around 31 July, though Hong Kong Jack advises against buying "20-year futures in us."Social Media PostsTwitter / XPost 1: One Nation could win up to 19 seats in the Victorian election. On this week's episode, we break down what a three-cornered contest means for the major parties -- and why minority government may be coming to Spring Street. Listen now.Post 2: "Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally." This week we examine the escalating dangers in Ukraine, Russian passports in Moldova, and why oil above USD 100 spells trouble for Trump. New episode of The Two Jacks out now.Post 3: $400,000. That is what it costs to train GPs across Australia to diagnose and treat ME/CFS -- and the government has cut it. We discuss why this quiet defunding of Emerge Australia is a disgrace. Full episode linked.Post 4: Derryn Hinch transformed Australian media. He also, by his own grandstanding, gave a paedophile priest four more years of access to children. This week we examine the complicated legacy of the Human Headline.Post 5: Bazball is dead. Garry Sobers is immortal. Nicky Winmar is out of the Hall of Fame. Our sport segment this week covers the big calls in cricket, AFL, rugby, and a World Cup final that unified the planet -- against Argentina.FacebookThis week on The Two Jacks: Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack navigate a political landscape where the old rules no longer apply.Redbridge polling has One Nation on track to become kingmaker in Victoria. We explore what minority government would actually look like -- and whether Labor can cling to power even if it finishes second.Bill Kelty says Australia's bureaucracy treats symptoms, not causes. We ask: where has political courage gone, and could anyone sell reform the way Keating did?From a USD 400,000 funding cut that will devastate chronic fatigue sufferers, to pharmaceutical companies abandoning Australian clinical trials, to a PBS in need of root-and-branch reform -- the domestic agenda is packed.Internationally, the picture is darker. Putin is cornered in Ukraine. Iran burns. Oil has passed USD 100. And the US midterms are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's foreign policy.Plus: Derryn Hinch's complicated legacy, Argentina's World Cup, Nicky Winmar and the AFL's consistency problem, the death of Bazball, and a toast to Sir Garfield Sobers -- the greatest cricketer who ever lived.Listen wherever you get your podcasts.InstagramCaption for episode artwork: Episode 165 is live. This week: One Nation's Victorian moment, Putin's dangerous corner, the Hinch legacy, and why a $400K funding cut matters more than you think. Link in bio. 🇦🇺LinkedInThis week's episode of The Two Jacks tackles the intersection of politics, economics, and accountability.We analyse Redbridge polling showing One Nation could secure up to 19 seats in the Victorian state election -- a result that would fundamentally reshape the state's political architecture. The discussion raises serious questions about how minority government would function in practice and what protest voting in Labor heartland seats means for the major parties' long-term strategies.Bill Kelty's recent economic commentary provides the framework for a broader conversation about bureaucratic inertia, infrastructure cost blowouts, and the housing crisis. The comparison with the Hawke-Keating reform era is instructive: today's political class appears to lack both the courage to pursue structural reform and the narrative skills to sell it.Other topics include the defunding of Emerge Australia (a case study in the real-world impact of line-item budget decisions), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's growing tension with global pharmaceutical companies, and the deteriorating geopolitical situation across Ukraine, Iran, and the broader Middle East.

Episode 214 - NEWS - AusAlert - Barky Barnaby and Teeny Weeny

We are back! And this week we are keeping it simple and silly. While I am looking into Karl Stefanovic's main sponsor Ringers Western - I have got square eyes and research fatigue. Reading judgements is BORING! So this week we are having some fun. AusAlert is going to make our phones scream FIRE in a building and you can't turn it off. But is it going to make you explode? Will the unvaccinated be spared? The answers will shock and astonish - but don't worry you can buy a solution. We look at Barnaby Joyce and Teeny Weeny having a rubbish week. Barnaby yelled at his dog on the ABC making people wonder what he's like at home. Teeny Weeny is copping shit because a few journos have finally noticed that he is barking mad. Babet went to England and hated it because Twitter has ruined him. He really is an idiot. Enjoy!

The Two Jacks - Episode 164 - Housing, Hormuz and the PM’s Podcast Problem

This weeks shownotes are brought to you by Microsoft CoPilot - and I think that's funny. Why? Because nobody really uses this outside of work. But here I am - using it. But I can all hear you say - "but Joel, producing the Two Jacks is essentially work" and I would agree. But let's not get carried away on such things. But I do get to compare and contrast AI models. And I do like the podcast (when the audio isn't fucked) so I guess I'm breaking even. Right?Highlights: copilot refuses to acknowledge my prompt that clearly states Jack is not me (he's just using the login) and also the FUCKING NERVE at the end to say it's produced by Two Jacks. Copilot suuuuucks.------------------------------------------------------------------------Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest stories: a downgraded Australian growth forecast, renewed Middle East tensions and oil-price risk, the cost of housing regulation, a controversial podcast appearance by the Prime Minister, new Pacific security ties, UK political drama, and a full sports roundup. The conversation mixes policy analysis, local anecdotes and sharp takes on political judgement.From the transcript: “The firm expects headline, inflation to remain elevated above 4% and unemployment to peak at 5%.”Shownotes with timestamps(All timestamps advanced by 25 seconds to allow for theme music)00:00:25 — Welcome and housekeeping  Hosts: Jack the Insider (speaking as Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack open the show and trade personal updates (dental woes, home repairs).00:02:12 — Australian economy update  Topic: Deloitte downgrades growth to 1.3% this financial year; inflation and unemployment outlook; RBA commentary on Commonwealth spending. Key takeaway: growth is slowing and inflation remains a problem.“Australia’s growth outlook has deteriorated over the past six months. The economy is still expanding, but growth has slowed and the outlook has become more fragile.”00:06:05 — Middle East and oil risk  Topic: Iran, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, US options and the long-term economic impact of sustained higher oil prices. Discussion of the limits of military options and the political timing pressures in the US.00:11:36 — Housing, regulation and planning delays  Topic: RBA 2018 study on Sydney housing regulation costs; local DA delays, heritage listings and the cost of permits. Practical points on streamlining approvals and supply-side fixes.00:20:54 — Political gaffe: Prime Minister on a podcast  Topic: Reaction to the PM’s Nova-style podcast appearance and awkward answers; media-advice failures; debate over whether senior politicians should accept small‑reach podcast interviews.00:31:40 — Pacific security and Fiji treaty  Topic: New treaty with Fiji makes it Australia’s fourth alliance partner; strategic context and China’s regional activity; soft-power vs bidding-war approaches.00:35:40 — UK politics and Nigel Farage  Topic: Farage resigns his seat and triggers a by-election amid funding questions; Andy Burnham’s expected rise to Prime Minister and the legitimacy challenge for leaders chosen without a general election.00:46:58 — Europe and Germany’s budget push  Topic: Germany pushes back on EU spending plans and flags competitiveness concerns; energy and industrial cost pressures.00:55:50 — Russia, Ukraine and military developments  Topic: Ukrainian strikes, Crimea pressure, and the risks of escalation; discussion of cruise-missile production and defensive needs.01:12:30 — Sport roundup  Topics covered: Women’s cricket dominance; World Cup highlights (Argentina, Norway, Mbappé); State of Origin; AFL/NRL broadcast deals and coaching moves; track standout Cameron Myers.Key quotes from the episodeOn the economy: “Inflation has re-accelerated, interest rates have moved higher and the oil price shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East is not yet fully resolved.”On housing regulation: Hong Kong Jack: “If you could have that $380,000 that it was seven years ago that comes onto the cost of building a house in Sydney, just think how much better off people in Sydney would be.”What we liked and what to watchWorth following: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any new RBA/Treasury commentary on growth and inflation.Local watch: NSW planning reforms and ICAC inquiries into property development.Politics: the fallout from the PM’s podcast appearance and the UK by-election dynamics around Nigel Farage.How to listen and get involvedSubscribe on your favourite podcast app.Send us feedback or story tips — Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack read listener mail each week.Share this episode if you found the housing or geopolitics segments useful.Produced by Two Jacks — Episode 164. Thanks for listening; we’ll be back next week.