The Conditional Release Program

The Two Jacks - Episode 165 - From Crimea to Canberra: Putin Cornered, One Nation Rising, and an Economy Out of Ideas

This weeks ai slop is served up by DeepSeek v4 Pro. I tried to use Kimi but it got stuck generating the notes. So now you get this. Could be worse. Episode SummaryJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack return for a wide-ranging conversation that spans the turbulent state of Australian politics and the precarious state of global affairs. The episode opens with striking Redbridge polling data suggesting One Nation could pick up as many as 19 seats in the upcoming Victorian state election -- a result that would leave neither major party able to form government in its own right. The Jacks explore the mechanics of minority government, the prospect of a marriage of convenience between the Liberals and One Nation, and whether Labor voters in protest mode could deliver One Nation unexpected inroads into heartland seats.The domestic focus then shifts to the Australian economy. Drawing on former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty's recent analysis, the hosts dissect a bureaucracy more concerned with treating symptoms than causes, lamenting squandered billions on unused quarantine centres, infrastructure costs among the highest in the world, and a housing crisis driven by a failure to train enough workers. The conversation turns to political courage -- or the lack of it -- comparing today's risk-averse governing class with the Hawke-Keating reform era, when fringe benefits tax was meant to kill the long lunch but somehow did not.A spirited defence of Emerge Australia -- an advocacy group training GPs to diagnose and treat myalgic encephalomyelitis (chronic fatigue syndrome) -- highlights the government's decision to cut a mere $400,000 in funding, a move Jack the Insider brands disgraceful for an organisation serving an estimated 250,000 Australians. Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme reform also gets a hearing, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials.Internationally, the Jacks confront the escalating dangers of the Russia-Ukraine war. With Ukraine making Crimea increasingly uninhabitable and Vladimir Putin backed into a corner, the prospect of an attack on a NATO or NATO-aligned state looms. The conversation covers Russia's cancelled bond sale, the shifting power dynamic between Putin and Xi Jinping, and thousands of Russian passports arriving in Moldova -- a familiar prelude to intervention. On Iran, the hosts reflect on the Trump administration's military strikes, oil climbing past USD 100 a barrel, and the political consequences for the upcoming US midterm elections.The episode closes with sport: the FIFA World Cup (and Argentina's remarkable ability to unify the football world in mutual disdain), the AFL's handling of the Nicky Winmar domestic violence case and questions of consistency, the end of the Bazball era in English Test cricket, a warm tribute to the late Sir Garfield Sobers, and rugby union's new Nations Championship format.Timestamped Highlights(All timestamps adjusted +25 seconds to account for theme music.)00:00:26 -- Introduction and Banter Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open the show trading observations on air conditioning, long lunches, and the perils of sitting directly beneath the vent.00:01:32 -- One Nation's Victorian Polling Surge Redbridge polling data indicates One Nation could win as many as 19 seats in the Victorian state election. In an 88-seat legislature, that would make a majority for either major party almost impossible.00:02:52 -- Minority Government Mechanics Hong Kong Jack explains the constitutional pathway: if no party wins a majority, the sitting Premier gets the first conversation with the Governor and may be recommissioned to form government.00:04:20 -- A Three-Cornered Contest Jack the Insider argues the Allan government is at the end of the road, but the Liberal alternative inspires little confidence. One Nation may poll well in Labor heartland seats as protest voters look for an outlet that is not the Liberal Party.00:06:33 -- The Polling vs. the Pencil Hong Kong Jack predicts One Nation's polling numbers will soften once voters are alone in the booth with an HB pencil hovering over the ballot paper.00:08:32 -- Commonwealth Games Land in Glasgow The hosts acknowledge the Commonwealth Games have begun -- in Glasgow, not Victoria. The opening ceremony featured King Charles and Queen Camilla emerging from a Doctor Who TARDIS.00:10:50 -- Pauline Hanson and the Tommy Robinson Interview The Jacks dissect Hanson's decision to interview the controversial British figure, with Hong Kong Jack arguing the motivation is straightforward: publicity, good or bad.00:12:12 -- Factions Within One Nation Barnaby Joyce's visible discomfort with the Robinson interview signals internal tensions. Jack the Insider warns One Nation risks veering further towards the "lunar right."00:13:30 -- Two Australias: The Great Dog Divide A detour into the changing culture of pet ownership. Jack the Insider contrasts the utilitarian farm dogs of his Reservoir childhood with the multi-billion-dollar industry of designer dog beds, pushchairs, and booties.00:15:59 -- Bill Kelty's Economic Diagnosis Former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty delivers a blunt assessment: Australian governments have spent decades treating symptoms rather than causes -- quarantine centres never used, infrastructure costs at world-record levels, a housing crisis born of under-investment in skills.00:17:59 -- The Courage Deficit Hong Kong Jack argues the current government, like its recent predecessors, lacks political boldness. The Prime Minister's Labor conference speech seemed "spooked by One Nation" rather than offering a growth narrative.00:19:22 -- The Keating Comparison Jack the Insider revisits the Hawke-Keating reform era, noting the howls of outrage that greeted early reforms -- including fringe benefits tax, which was meant to "kill lunch" but somehow did not. The difference today: social media amplifies every backlash.00:23:02 -- Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Funding Cut An urgent segment on the defunding of Emerge Australia, an advocacy group that has trained roughly 10% of the nation's GPs in diagnosing and treating ME/CFS. The cut amounts to approximately $400,000 -- a sum Jack the Insider describes as negligible in public expenditure but catastrophic for the 250,000 Australians living with the condition.00:26:37 -- The PBS and Australia's Clinical Trial Problem Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials, leaving patients with rare conditions to raise extraordinary sums for overseas treatment. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's pricing structure may require root-and-branch reform, particularly for newly developed drugs.00:29:50 -- What Should Labor Do About One Nation? Hong Kong Jack's prescription is simple: fix the economy and stop saying silly things. One Nation will wither on the vine if economic growth returns.00:30:17 -- Derryn Hinch: The Human Headline Remembered The former broadcaster, senator, and Justice Party founder has died aged 82. The Jacks reflect on a complicated legacy -- a man who transformed Melbourne talkback radio and tabloid television, was twice married to Jacki Weaver, and whose profound impact on the media is tempered by a deeply troubling intervention in the justice system.00:32:00 -- The Glennon Case: When a Headline Cost Children Their Safety Jack the Insider recounts in detail how Hinch's decision to publicly name convicted paedophile priest Michael Glennon during an active trial led to the suspension of proceedings, an eventual overturned conviction, and a four-year window in which Glennon continued operating camps and abusing children -- as many as 20 additional victims.00:38:14 -- Hinch's Media Legacy Despite the Glennon tragedy, Hong Kong Jack credits Hinch with changing the sound of Melbourne radio. The talkback format he pioneered arguably saved stations like 3AW.00:40:32 -- Ukraine and the Battle for Crimea The Ukrainians cannot hold Crimea, but they are making it unliveable. Water, electricity, and supplies have been cut. Crimeans are fleeing en masse. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has effectively ceased to exist.00:42:13 -- Putin Backed Into a Corner Jack the Insider warns that Vladimir Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally. The spectre of an attack on a NATO country -- perhaps a Baltic state -- or on Moldova is real. Putin cannot sue for peace; it would mean the end of him.00:44:21 -- Russia's Economic Pressure Points Hong Kong Jack notes that Russia cancelled a regular bond sale last week after failing to find buyers. The economic squeeze is mounting. Putin and his deeply unpopular party are now being fused together ahead of elections.00:47:13 -- Russian Passports Arrive in Moldova Thousands of Russian passports have been shipped to Moldova -- the same playbook used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine before intervention.00:49:32 -- Iran, the Houthis, and Oil Above USD 100 US strikes on Iran continue. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have struck oil tankers. The price of crude has pushed past USD 100 a barrel -- a politically dangerous number for Donald Trump four months out from the midterms.00:50:33 -- The Netanyahu Pitch for Regime Change Jack the Insider recounts the scene from Swan and Haberman's book: Benjamin Netanyahu presenting a case for US-Israeli combined bombing to achieve regime change in Iran. Trump was impressed; Marco Rubio and the CIA director were not.00:52:56 -- US Midterms: The Democratic Candidate Problem The Democrats' prospects are muddied by candidate issues including the withdrawal of Graham Plattner over sexual assault allegations and the party's persistent inability to select candidates who genuinely connect with the white working class.00:54:40 -- Tim Waltz, John Kerry, and Authenticity Hong Kong Jack contrasts the Democrats' clumsy attempts to project authenticity -- Tim Waltz hunting, John Kerry windsurfing -- with the reality that Kerry was an ice hockey player who once attended a White House meeting with two black eyes from a congressional game.00:58:19 -- The Sickness in American Democracy Jack the Insider argues the two-party lock on presidential politics -- achieved partly by keeping third-party candidates off ballots in roughly 30 states -- is profoundly undemocratic. With 40% of voters now registering as independents, millions have no candidate who represents them.00:59:43 -- Can Trump Disrupt the Midterms? Hong Kong Jack analyses the constitutional limits on presidential interference in state-run elections. Any attempt to use emergency powers would go straight to court.01:03:43 -- Marine Le Pen: France's Next President? Polling around 67%, Le Pen is the frontrunner for the French presidential election. Her felony conviction for misusing EU funds appears to be no impediment.01:05:09 -- Andy Burnham's Fast Start as UK Prime Minister The new PM has hit the ground running with popular measures: a GBP 2 bus fare cap across England, 20% business rate cuts for pubs, clubs, and live music venues, and the scrapping of VAT on domestic electricity bills.01:07:36 -- Britain's Investment Challenge The biggest test for Burnham will be attracting investment. The UK has 11 million working-age citizens on benefits -- a figure now exceeding tax receipts.01:09:03 -- FIFA World Cup: Argentina Triumphs, Trump Photobombs Argentina are world champions, but not before a petition signed by millions demanded their exclusion from the final. Donald Trump appeared on the podium; the Spanish commemorative photos, the Jacks note, did not include him.01:11:07 -- The Refereeing and the Expansion The officiating was patchy, but the expanded tournament format was vindicated. Seeing Cape Verde, Australia, New Zealand, and Iran compete gave the event a genuinely global feel.01:14:23 -- Nicky Winmar, the AFL Hall of Fame, and Domestic Violence The Jacks grapple with the AFL's removal of Winmar from the Hall of Fame following a domestic violence conviction. Jack the Insider questions the consistency: Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett Sr. remain honoured. Hong Kong Jack suggests a suspension rather than permanent expulsion would have been more appropriate, arguing that football cannot be reserved for choirboys.01:19:06 -- Bazball's End: The McCallum Era Concludes Baz McCallum is out as England's Test coach after 49 Tests: 27 wins, 20 losses. Ten of the first eleven were victories; seven of the last nine were defeats. The hosts debate whether Bazball added to cricket's audience even if it could not sustainably win Test matches.01:23:20 -- Sir Garfield Sobers: The Greatest of All Time A warm tribute to the late West Indian legend. Jack the Insider recalls meeting Sobers at the Hilton in Barbados. Hong Kong Jack shares the story of Sobers -- completely ambidextrous -- playing golf off scratch left-handed and off two right-handed.01:27:53 -- Rugby Union's Nations Championship A new format pits Northern Hemisphere sides against Southern Hemisphere sides, culminating in finals at Twickenham. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical anyone will care which hemisphere wins. The 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, however, is selling tickets strongly.01:30:00 -- Sign-Off Jack the Insider thanks listeners and apologises for the previous week's absence due to illness. The hosts promise to return on or around 31 July, though Hong Kong Jack advises against buying "20-year futures in us."Social Media PostsTwitter / XPost 1: One Nation could win up to 19 seats in the Victorian election. On this week's episode, we break down what a three-cornered contest means for the major parties -- and why minority government may be coming to Spring Street. Listen now.Post 2: "Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally." This week we examine the escalating dangers in Ukraine, Russian passports in Moldova, and why oil above USD 100 spells trouble for Trump. New episode of The Two Jacks out now.Post 3: $400,000. That is what it costs to train GPs across Australia to diagnose and treat ME/CFS -- and the government has cut it. We discuss why this quiet defunding of Emerge Australia is a disgrace. Full episode linked.Post 4: Derryn Hinch transformed Australian media. He also, by his own grandstanding, gave a paedophile priest four more years of access to children. This week we examine the complicated legacy of the Human Headline.Post 5: Bazball is dead. Garry Sobers is immortal. Nicky Winmar is out of the Hall of Fame. Our sport segment this week covers the big calls in cricket, AFL, rugby, and a World Cup final that unified the planet -- against Argentina.FacebookThis week on The Two Jacks: Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack navigate a political landscape where the old rules no longer apply.Redbridge polling has One Nation on track to become kingmaker in Victoria. We explore what minority government would actually look like -- and whether Labor can cling to power even if it finishes second.Bill Kelty says Australia's bureaucracy treats symptoms, not causes. We ask: where has political courage gone, and could anyone sell reform the way Keating did?From a USD 400,000 funding cut that will devastate chronic fatigue sufferers, to pharmaceutical companies abandoning Australian clinical trials, to a PBS in need of root-and-branch reform -- the domestic agenda is packed.Internationally, the picture is darker. Putin is cornered in Ukraine. Iran burns. Oil has passed USD 100. And the US midterms are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's foreign policy.Plus: Derryn Hinch's complicated legacy, Argentina's World Cup, Nicky Winmar and the AFL's consistency problem, the death of Bazball, and a toast to Sir Garfield Sobers -- the greatest cricketer who ever lived.Listen wherever you get your podcasts.InstagramCaption for episode artwork: Episode 165 is live. This week: One Nation's Victorian moment, Putin's dangerous corner, the Hinch legacy, and why a $400K funding cut matters more than you think. Link in bio. 🇦🇺LinkedInThis week's episode of The Two Jacks tackles the intersection of politics, economics, and accountability.We analyse Redbridge polling showing One Nation could secure up to 19 seats in the Victorian state election -- a result that would fundamentally reshape the state's political architecture. The discussion raises serious questions about how minority government would function in practice and what protest voting in Labor heartland seats means for the major parties' long-term strategies.Bill Kelty's recent economic commentary provides the framework for a broader conversation about bureaucratic inertia, infrastructure cost blowouts, and the housing crisis. The comparison with the Hawke-Keating reform era is instructive: today's political class appears to lack both the courage to pursue structural reform and the narrative skills to sell it.Other topics include the defunding of Emerge Australia (a case study in the real-world impact of line-item budget decisions), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's growing tension with global pharmaceutical companies, and the deteriorating geopolitical situation across Ukraine, Iran, and the broader Middle East.

Episode 214 - NEWS - AusAlert - Barky Barnaby and Teeny Weeny

We are back! And this week we are keeping it simple and silly. While I am looking into Karl Stefanovic's main sponsor Ringers Western - I have got square eyes and research fatigue. Reading judgements is BORING! So this week we are having some fun. AusAlert is going to make our phones scream FIRE in a building and you can't turn it off. But is it going to make you explode? Will the unvaccinated be spared? The answers will shock and astonish - but don't worry you can buy a solution. We look at Barnaby Joyce and Teeny Weeny having a rubbish week. Barnaby yelled at his dog on the ABC making people wonder what he's like at home. Teeny Weeny is copping shit because a few journos have finally noticed that he is barking mad. Babet went to England and hated it because Twitter has ruined him. He really is an idiot. Enjoy!

The Two Jacks - Episode 164 - Housing, Hormuz and the PM’s Podcast Problem

This weeks shownotes are brought to you by Microsoft CoPilot - and I think that's funny. Why? Because nobody really uses this outside of work. But here I am - using it. But I can all hear you say - "but Joel, producing the Two Jacks is essentially work" and I would agree. But let's not get carried away on such things. But I do get to compare and contrast AI models. And I do like the podcast (when the audio isn't fucked) so I guess I'm breaking even. Right?Highlights: copilot refuses to acknowledge my prompt that clearly states Jack is not me (he's just using the login) and also the FUCKING NERVE at the end to say it's produced by Two Jacks. Copilot suuuuucks.------------------------------------------------------------------------Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest stories: a downgraded Australian growth forecast, renewed Middle East tensions and oil-price risk, the cost of housing regulation, a controversial podcast appearance by the Prime Minister, new Pacific security ties, UK political drama, and a full sports roundup. The conversation mixes policy analysis, local anecdotes and sharp takes on political judgement.From the transcript: “The firm expects headline, inflation to remain elevated above 4% and unemployment to peak at 5%.”Shownotes with timestamps(All timestamps advanced by 25 seconds to allow for theme music)00:00:25 — Welcome and housekeeping  Hosts: Jack the Insider (speaking as Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack open the show and trade personal updates (dental woes, home repairs).00:02:12 — Australian economy update  Topic: Deloitte downgrades growth to 1.3% this financial year; inflation and unemployment outlook; RBA commentary on Commonwealth spending. Key takeaway: growth is slowing and inflation remains a problem.“Australia’s growth outlook has deteriorated over the past six months. The economy is still expanding, but growth has slowed and the outlook has become more fragile.”00:06:05 — Middle East and oil risk  Topic: Iran, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, US options and the long-term economic impact of sustained higher oil prices. Discussion of the limits of military options and the political timing pressures in the US.00:11:36 — Housing, regulation and planning delays  Topic: RBA 2018 study on Sydney housing regulation costs; local DA delays, heritage listings and the cost of permits. Practical points on streamlining approvals and supply-side fixes.00:20:54 — Political gaffe: Prime Minister on a podcast  Topic: Reaction to the PM’s Nova-style podcast appearance and awkward answers; media-advice failures; debate over whether senior politicians should accept small‑reach podcast interviews.00:31:40 — Pacific security and Fiji treaty  Topic: New treaty with Fiji makes it Australia’s fourth alliance partner; strategic context and China’s regional activity; soft-power vs bidding-war approaches.00:35:40 — UK politics and Nigel Farage  Topic: Farage resigns his seat and triggers a by-election amid funding questions; Andy Burnham’s expected rise to Prime Minister and the legitimacy challenge for leaders chosen without a general election.00:46:58 — Europe and Germany’s budget push  Topic: Germany pushes back on EU spending plans and flags competitiveness concerns; energy and industrial cost pressures.00:55:50 — Russia, Ukraine and military developments  Topic: Ukrainian strikes, Crimea pressure, and the risks of escalation; discussion of cruise-missile production and defensive needs.01:12:30 — Sport roundup  Topics covered: Women’s cricket dominance; World Cup highlights (Argentina, Norway, Mbappé); State of Origin; AFL/NRL broadcast deals and coaching moves; track standout Cameron Myers.Key quotes from the episodeOn the economy: “Inflation has re-accelerated, interest rates have moved higher and the oil price shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East is not yet fully resolved.”On housing regulation: Hong Kong Jack: “If you could have that $380,000 that it was seven years ago that comes onto the cost of building a house in Sydney, just think how much better off people in Sydney would be.”What we liked and what to watchWorth following: developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any new RBA/Treasury commentary on growth and inflation.Local watch: NSW planning reforms and ICAC inquiries into property development.Politics: the fallout from the PM’s podcast appearance and the UK by-election dynamics around Nigel Farage.How to listen and get involvedSubscribe on your favourite podcast app.Send us feedback or story tips — Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack read listener mail each week.Share this episode if you found the housing or geopolitics segments useful.Produced by Two Jacks — Episode 164. Thanks for listening; we’ll be back next week.

Episode 213 - NEWS - PHON AI Slop - AntiVax Infanticide - Clacton Bin Sea

Listeners! Thanks for your patience! I've been sick and Jack's been distracted but you can't keep a good bitch down and we are back with a news ep to keep you going. Up first we look at the AI slop that is coming from Indonesia and elsewhere and ask - are they actually being paid by dark money or just making money from clicks? In Idaho a woman is charged with the murder of her two children after they died in her care and she did a classic antivax PR tour faciliated by RFK Jr.'s former organisation Children's Health Defence. It's gross. And of course we have to laugh at Nigel who though he was so clever to call a byelection to make a big song and dance about how victimised he is for being held to account for taking a shitload of money for dubious reasons. Now that idiot has to argue with a bin. But - a lot of other egomaniacs are getting involved and may just ruin the funniest thing ever. In SovCits there is a revelation on Rod but a classic case of pointless stupidity in a courtroom where something as simple as probate turned into a witchhunt. A literal witchhunt. Babet is an idiot but in one post, I can't entirely disagree. But I also don't disagree because, as usual, he can't just be normal. Enjoy!

The Two Jacks - Episode 163 - Housing Jitters, One Nation’s Surge and Victoria’s Political Reckoning

Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings. This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something. Nah. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, recorded on 2 July 2026, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take a wide-ranging look at the political, economic and sporting stories shaping Australia and the world.The episode opens with Australia’s housing market, including recent house price falls, the risks facing first home buyers using the 5 per cent deposit scheme, and the dangers of negative equity. The Jacks then turn to the striking rise of One Nation, debating whether the surge is a genuine long-term disruption in Australian politics or partly a mirage fuelled by social media, disinformation and dissatisfaction with the major parties.Victorian politics comes under close scrutiny, with discussion of Moira Deeming, the Matthew Guy allegation, Jess Wilson’s leadership, and Jacinta Allan’s handling of the Big Build controversies. Internationally, the episode covers Andy Burnham’s likely move into Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s defence spending announcement, Trump-era decision-making as explored in Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman’s book, congressional stock trading in the United States, and the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.The show wraps with sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement from international cricket, England’s reckless loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another World Cup final.00:00:25 — Welcome to Episode 163Jack the Insider opens the show and marks the start of the new financial year in Australia. Hong Kong Jack joins from Hong Kong, where the previous day marked Reunification Day, the anniversary of the handover to the People’s Republic of China.00:01:10 — Housing Prices, First Home Buyers and Negative EquityThe Jacks begin with Australia’s housing market and recent reports of price declines in suburbs with strong uptake of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. They unpack the risk of highly leveraged first home buyers falling into negative equity, where the debt on a property exceeds its current market value.Hong Kong Jack recalls the early 1990s Melbourne housing market, when banks were reluctant to sell distressed inner-suburban properties because doing so would have further damaged the market. The discussion compares that period with the global financial crisis in the United States and Ireland, where property crashes led to widespread foreclosures.00:04:00 — Can Australian House Prices Keep Rising?The conversation turns to whether Australian housing can continue producing the large capital gains many homeowners have come to expect. Jack the Insider argues that prices in Sydney and Melbourne cannot keep rising at the same pace without locking younger buyers out of the market.Hong Kong Jack makes the broader point that Australia’s tax and investment settings have made owner-occupied housing unusually attractive compared with other investments, contributing to long-term affordability problems.00:06:36 — Could Money Shift from Housing to the ASX?Jack the Insider speculates that if housing becomes less reliable as an investment vehicle, more money may flow into equities and the Australian share market. The discussion also touches on the weak outlook for CBD commercial property, with work-from-home trends continuing to affect demand.00:07:25 — The 5 Per Cent Deposit SchemeThe Jacks assess the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme for first home buyers. Hong Kong Jack says it may provide some help for young people trying to enter the market, but it is not a magic solution to housing affordability.They discuss the practical challenge of borrowing large sums with very little equity, especially if prices flatten or fall. The risk for banks and borrowers is that buyers may end up with little or no equity for some time.00:10:41 — The One Nation SurgeThe episode moves to One Nation’s rise in the polls. Jack the Insider notes that One Nation polled around 6.5 per cent nationally at the previous federal election but is now polling far higher, with some figures placing the party in the 20s.The Jacks discuss possible reasons for the surge, including public dissatisfaction with the major parties, the political aftermath of the Bondi terror attack, and the way right-wing voters are shifting away from the Coalition.00:11:48 — Social Media, Bots and the “Mirage” of One NationJack the Insider raises concerns about foreign influence, AI-generated videos, disinformation and bot-like social media activity targeting Australian politics. He cites examples of fake or misleading material involving Natalie Barr, Anthony Albanese and claims about Labor figures selling property after the budget.He argues that some of the online activity appears designed to attack both the government and the Coalition while indirectly benefiting One Nation. He describes part of the One Nation surge as a “mirage”, while acknowledging that real-world results, such as the South Australian election and the Farrar by-election, show the party has genuine support.00:18:20 — Is One Nation the Biggest Political Disruption Since World War II?Hong Kong Jack argues that, even allowing for some mirage factor, One Nation’s polling makes it the biggest disruption to Australian politics since World War II. He compares the party’s current position with the historical performance of the DLP, Australian Democrats and Greens, none of which reached similar national polling levels.Jack the Insider counters that One Nation’s rise appears to be splintering the right-wing vote rather than pulling substantial support from Labor or the left. The Jacks agree the Liberal Party has a major strategic problem: it must rebuild its primary vote while deciding how directly to confront One Nation.00:21:56 — What Should the Liberal Party Do?The Jacks discuss the Liberal Party’s path back to competitiveness. Hong Kong Jack says the party should stop obsessing over polls and focus on hard policy work, local campaigning and the basics of politics.Jack the Insider argues the Liberals will eventually need to attack One Nation directly. His view is that conservative voters must be told clearly that a vote for One Nation is likely to help return Labor to government or create instability.00:23:38 — Pauline Hanson, Policy Uncertainty and Senate AttendanceJack the Insider criticises Pauline Hanson’s policy understanding and parliamentary work ethic, citing her position on maternity leave and Senate attendance. He argues that One Nation’s shifting policy framework and uncertainty will become more apparent under greater scrutiny.The Jacks also discuss preference flows and whether the Coalition can rely on One Nation preferences if the right-wing vote remains fragmented.00:26:51 — Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy and the Victorian LiberalsThe conversation shifts to Victorian Liberal politics. Jack the Insider discusses Moira Deeming, who is likely to face disendorsement, and says Jess Wilson appears to be handling internal party discipline more effectively than previous Liberal leaders.The Jacks examine Deeming’s allegation involving Matthew Guy and the CCTV footage that emerged afterward. Jack the Insider argues that the Victorian Liberals must deal firmly with internal destabilisation if they are to present themselves as a credible alternative government.00:31:00 — Don Farrell on One Nation and the Bondi AttackHong Kong Jack notes that Labor frontbencher Don Farrell has attributed One Nation’s rise partly to Coalition division and partly to a post-Bondi surge. Jack the Insider questions whether the Bondi attack will become a lasting voting determinant, suggesting it may prove to be a temporary political factor.The discussion also covers One Nation and the Greens voting against proposed bans on hate preachers, despite rhetoric about the issue after Bondi.00:33:08 — Newspoll, Labor’s Position and Coalition TroubleJack the Insider discusses polling showing Labor improving, One Nation slipping slightly and the Coalition struggling. He argues that the Coalition must win back a large share of One Nation’s support if it is to become competitive.The Jacks consider whether One Nation has reached its high watermark or whether the movement has deeper staying power. They also note that Labor and the Greens together remain in a strong position if the conservative vote continues to fracture.00:38:08 — Jacinta Allan and Victoria’s Big Build ProblemsVictorian Premier Jacinta Allan comes under scrutiny over the Big Build projects and allegations surrounding inflated costs and union influence. The Jacks discuss reporting by The Age’s investigative unit and Nick McKenzie, including claims about contractors being asked whether they could do deals with unions.Hong Kong Jack says Allan’s position looks increasingly terminal, while Jack the Insider says there is widespread anger among Victorians toward the government. They agree the timing of the controversy is politically damaging for Labor.00:41:07 — Could Victorian Labor Replace Jacinta Allan?The Jacks debate whether Victorian Labor has the courage or capacity to replace Allan before the election. Jack the Insider argues that taking over now would be a political kamikaze job, given the scale of Labor’s problems.They compare Allan with Daniel Andrews, whom Jack the Insider describes as a much stronger communicator and political operator. The discussion also considers whether Labor still has a narrow path to victory if the right-wing vote splits between the Liberals, One Nation and other parties.00:45:35 — The Age, “Uniparty” Claims and Victorian Labor’s DefendersHong Kong Jack shares a social media post attacking The Age as part of a supposed One Nation-Liberal-National “uniparty” media operation. The Jacks use it to illustrate the type of rhetoric surrounding Victorian politics and the difficulty Labor faces as corruption and governance issues dominate the debate.00:46:46 — Joh Bjelke-Petersen Comparisons and Victorian CorruptionThe conversation touches on comparisons between Victoria’s current political troubles and the corruption scandals that brought down Joh Bjelke-Petersen in Queensland. Jack the Insider notes commentary suggesting that corruption can become the defining factor that ends a long-running government.They also discuss the relationship between Victorian Labor and sections of the union movement, including the role of unions in major construction projects.00:50:30 — Andy Burnham’s UK ProgramThe Jacks move to UK politics and Andy Burnham’s expected rise to the prime ministership. Hong Kong Jack outlines Burnham’s program, including a proposal to govern partly from Manchester and devolve more power to regions and councils.Jack the Insider frames this as part of a broader devolution agenda. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical, arguing that devolution has not clearly succeeded in Scotland or Wales and may not deliver the growth Burnham is promising.00:53:59 — Keir Starmer’s Defence Spending AnnouncementKeir Starmer’s proposed defence spending boost comes under scrutiny. Hong Kong Jack argues the numbers do not add up and describes the announcement as “smoke and mirrors”.The Jacks also discuss Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions and how she may find Burnham a tougher opponent than Starmer.00:56:59 — “Died” or “Passed Away”?In a lighter aside, the Jacks discuss euphemisms around death, particularly the increasingly common use of “passed” or “passed away”. Hong Kong Jack says he prefers plain language and warns Jack the Insider not to say he has “passed” when the time comes.00:58:28 — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Trump’s Decision-MakingThe conversation moves to the United States and the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. Jack the Insider discusses material about Trump’s decision-making style, particularly the tendency to favour gut instinct even when advice from officials points in another direction.The Jacks discuss US decision-making around Iran and the dangers of ignoring structured advice in favour of personal instinct.01:04:11 — AI, Congress and Insider TradingThe Jacks discuss claims that AI tools have exposed widespread conflicts between congressional stock trades and the legislative work of US politicians. The system described cross-references stock purchases with bills and committee activity.Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack stress that this is a bipartisan problem, not confined to one party or one administration. They note that the STOCK Act was intended to address congressional trading conflicts but has not produced meaningful enforcement.01:08:47 — Trump, Crypto, Wealth and CorruptionThe discussion broadens to Donald Trump’s personal enrichment, including crypto ventures, the Qatar jet issue and business opportunities involving Trump family members. Jack the Insider argues that Trump appears to be benefiting heavily from his second term.Hong Kong Jack says the presidency is difficult to regulate in this area, while Congress has shown little willingness to police itself.01:13:36 — Russia-Ukraine War UpdateJack the Insider discusses Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow, including attacks on fuel infrastructure and refineries. The Jacks note reports of fuel shortages, long queues and unrest at Russian service stations.Hong Kong Jack explains that Ukraine appears to be targeting specific refinery components that Russia cannot easily replace. The Jacks also discuss reports of Russian troop movements, the pressure on Crimea, and the possibility of political instability inside Russia if the war continues to turn against Moscow.01:18:34 — Drone Warfare and Moscow’s VulnerabilityThe Jacks reflect on how drone warfare has transformed modern conflict. Jack the Insider describes footage of Ukrainian drones reaching Moscow while Russian air defences fired ineffectively.They note that when the invasion began, few expected Ukraine to hold out for years, let alone gain the upper hand in key areas through targeted strikes and technological adaptation.01:20:15 — Ben Stokes Retires from International CricketThe sports segment begins with Ben Stokes’ surprise retirement from international cricket. Jack the Insider describes watching the announcement unfold during England’s Test against New Zealand and says the moment shifted the entire atmosphere of the match.The Jacks argue that England’s focus turned into a farewell lap for Stokes rather than a serious attempt to win or save the Test.01:22:10 — England’s Reckless Chase and New Zealand’s Great WinThe Jacks criticise England’s approach to the run chase, including the decision to open with Stokes and the reckless batting that followed. They praise New Zealand for a disciplined, hard-fought victory and highlight Daryl Mitchell’s courageous century on a difficult wicket.Hong Kong Jack says New Zealand’s series win deserves major recognition, especially given their record away from home under their captain.01:25:16 — New Zealand’s Strength and England’s Bazball ProblemThe Jacks discuss New Zealand’s strengths: preparation, fielding, resilience and intent. They contrast this with England’s loose approach and the possible end of the Bazball era.Jack the Insider says Ben Stokes has been a wonderful player and match-winner but argues that England now faces serious leadership and management problems. The Jacks debate the futures of Brendon McCullum, Rob Key and England’s Test setup.01:32:19 — World Cup, France and BrazilThe Jacks briefly discuss the World Cup, noting the difficulty of keeping track of the tournament but identifying France as looking particularly strong. Brazil and Norway are also mentioned as teams to watch.01:32:47 — State of Origin PreviewThe conversation turns to State of Origin, with the Blues heading to Lang Park. Jack the Insider says New South Wales have only rarely won a series decider there and does not see it happening this time.01:33:15 — AFL Fixtures and Broadcast FrustrationsThe Jacks preview upcoming AFL matches, including Geelong versus Brisbane, Sydney versus the Bulldogs, and Richmond versus Carlton. Jack the Insider questions the logic of the AFL fixture, particularly overlapping games and the lack of Saturday afternoon free-to-air football.01:36:19 — Australian Women’s Cricket Team Reaches Another FinalJack the Insider notes that Australia’s women’s cricket team has reached another ICC World Cup final after beating India. England and South Africa are due to play for the other spot in the final.He praises the Australian side for remaining a powerful force despite changes from previous line-ups.01:37:11 — Listener Feedback and Sign-OffJack the Insider closes the episode by thanking Hong Kong Jack for his opinions and preparation. Listeners are encouraged to send in comments, criticisms and issues they would like the Two Jacks to tackle in future episodes.Hong Kong Jack jokingly asks listeners not to send anything complimentary.-- Dunno why it did this but it gave another show description? Whatever nobody is still reading at this point. Short Episode DescriptionJack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Australia’s housing jitters, the risks facing first home buyers, One Nation’s polling surge, and the Coalition’s strategic dilemma. They also examine Victorian Labor’s Big Build troubles, Jacinta Allan’s leadership problems, Andy Burnham’s UK agenda, Trump-era decision-making, congressional stock trading, Ukraine’s drone war against Russia and a huge week in sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement and New Zealand’s Test triumph over England.Long Episode DescriptionIn episode 163 of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack begin with Australia’s housing market, where falling prices in some first home buyer suburbs raise questions about the 5 per cent deposit scheme and the risk of negative equity.The major political focus is One Nation’s dramatic rise in the polls. Is it a genuine realignment of Australian politics, the biggest disruption since World War II, or partly a mirage inflated by social media, disinformation and frustration with the major parties? The Jacks examine what this means for the Liberal Party, why the conservative vote is splintering, and how Labor may benefit.In Victoria, the Jacks look at Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy, Jess Wilson, Jacinta Allan and the Big Build controversies that continue to put pressure on the state government. Overseas, they discuss Andy Burnham’s UK program, Keir Starmer’s defence spending claims, Trump’s reliance on instinct over advice, AI-driven scrutiny of congressional stock trading, and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure.The episode finishes with sport: Ben Stokes’ international retirement, England’s disastrous Test loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another final.