The Kākā by Bernard Hickey (private feed for simon.wheatley@acgedu.com)

Still captured, after all these years

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Thursday August 28, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis decided yesterday not to pursue a structural separation of the supermarkets duopoly, opting instead to bring supermarkets into the fast-track regime and hope that the likes of Costco chooses to expand beyond West Auckland. However, Costco was consented for a Christchurch store in 2022, but has yet to launch in the South Island. Aldi, Lidl and other international groups showed no interest in Willis’ plea for new competitors to join.* The Sidebar: The tale continues to wag the dog. ACT Leader and Deputy Prime Minister welcomed the decision not to pursue the ‘regulatory over-reach’ of a breakup of the supermarkets, saying removing ‘red tape’ would foster competition.* The Quote of the Day is from Grocery Action Group chairperson Sue Chetwin, who said only structural separation would deliver meaningful improvements for shoppers quickly.* The Chart of the day shows the Earnings Before Interest and Tax profit margins of Foodstuffs South Island and Foodstuffs North Island in 2024 were 6% and 7% respectively, which is around double that of international chains such as Tesco and Sainsbury. * The Scoop of the day is this deep-dive by Kirsty Johnson for RNZ: Workplace safety reforms risk another Pike River, officials warned* My Deep-Dives of the day are from Amy Williams for RNZ: Boarding house evicts 26 people with two days' notice, and from Bella Craig for RNZ: Damp houses, high rent, no jobs - students resorting to sleeping roughUsually, paying subscribers get more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the video and podcast above first. This email and video is usually sent later in the day to all non-paying subscribers and can then be read, watched and shared publicly. But today I’ve decided to open this one up to all immediately, given the public interest involved so it can be viewed and shared more widely. This only possible with the help of paying subscribers. So please subscribe to support this workQuote of the day: ‘Tell em they’re dreaming’“Breaking up this entrenched duopoly is the single most effective course of action if New Zealanders are to see lower prices at the checkout, and to see them quickly. Meaningful, enforceable structural changes — alongside streamlined planning processes for newcomers — are the only way to ensure genuine competition, fair pricing, fair treatment of suppliers and a thriving, accessible supermarket sector for all New Zealanders.” Grocery Action Group chairperson Sue Chetwin via 1NewsChart of the day: Twice as profitableNumber of the day: Incomes flat for first time since 2010*Picks n’ Mixes for Thursday, August 28Scoops & Breaking news this morning* Anna Whyte for The Post-$: Major public service reshape afoot. The Post understands a major reshape of the public service is under consideration, which would significantly reduce the number of agencies and departments, possibly by as much as by half to 20 ministries.* Shilpy Arora Gaikwad & Caroline Williams for Stuff: ‘Heartbreaking’: Renovated Kāinga Ora house in ‘prime’ location empty for almost 18 months. Two-bedroom home has sat vacant “because of legal proceedings” amid spike in homelessness.* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Health NZ invited specific providers to join GP service, documents show* Liam Dann for NZ Herald:‘Deeply uncomfortable’ - Westpac CEO on $2.4m salary made public* Laura Walters for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Principals plead for Govt to stop ‘politically driven’ NCEA replacement Erica Stanford’s not for turning, saying the judgement of the unhappy principals – mostly from low socioeconomic schools – is marred by their ‘PTSD’ from the unmitigated disaster of previous changes.* Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Judge weighs unprecedented Treaty action on Māori Health Authority abolition A High Court case on the dissolution of the Māori Health Authority could have constitutional ramifications for Treaty of Waitangi lawHot topics in the last dayWillis backs away from breaking up grocery duopoly* Column by Luke Malpass for The Post-$: Nicola Willis makes the supermarket changes she can. The Economic Growth Minister’s supermarket changes are a nod to coalition Government numbers, and what’s politically realistic rather than optimal.* Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Nicola Willis keeps supermarket break-up in back pocket for now. No ‘D-day’ for Foodstuffs and Woolworths as Willis holds fire on forced divestment in favour of smaller changes to improve competition.* Analysis by Glenn McConnell for Stuff: Why didn’t Costco expand out of Auckland? That’s the question as Nicola Willis woos supermarkets.* Mandy Te for Interest: 'What we're saying is a big fat yes to new supermarkets'* Giles Dexter for RNZ: Watch: 'Express lane' for new supermarkets that could boost competitionNew Business Investor Visa* Mandy Te for Interest: NZ still open to business as Government brings in Business Investor Visa ‘Small, niche category’: Immigration Minister says there could potentially be 100 to 150 applicants in the first year as Government introduces new Business Investor Visa* Gill Bonnett for RNZ: 'Sensible': New visa for business investors tailor made for baby boomers* Bridie Witton for Stuff: Will new million-dollar investment visa grow the economy? Erica Stanford thinks so Stanford announced a new business investor visa to replace the entrepreneur work visa, taking effect from November.The Best of the RestPolitics & Geopolitics* Column by Janet Wilson for The Post-$: A policy of defiance looks set to land with a whimper. There are several contenders for worst Government policy this term, but a clear winner plumbs the depths: Local Water Done Well.* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald-$: 'Desperate to deflect responsibility': Mayor fires back at Willis in economic blame game* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald: ‘Shocked’: Email shows RBNZ warned Treasury it could ‘destroy goodwill’ by releasing info* NZ Herald: Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Reserve Bank Chair Neil Quigley's OIA email* Column by Audrey Young for NZ Herald-$: Judge says Waitangi Tribunal is 'Rolls Royce' arbiter on Treaty* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Accountants divided on IRD information-gathering power repealEconomy, Business, Media & Tech* Column by Tony Alexander for OneRoof: Odds of a U-turn on mortgage rates are growing. The Reserve Bank will almost certainly raise the OCR in the near future - and the markets know it.* Anne Gibson for NZ Herald-$: Auckland CBD retail area has 13% vacancy rate, the highest percentage of empty shops in NZ* Deep-dive by Amanda Gillies for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Cruise industry jumps ship on New Zealand* Op-Ed by Paul Thompson for RNZ: Next steps for RNZ in ever-changing media landscape* The Post-$: Fortune Favours pub closing with ‘heavy hearts’. Shannon Thorpe opened his brewery one of the capital's most vibrant laneways. Now, after eight years, the cost of living crisis has proven too difficult to navigate.* Rob Stock for The Post-$: NZ supplier falls afoul of Woolworths ‘modern slavery’ audit. The revelation comes in a report compiled by the Australian-owned grocer as it attempts to get ‘modern slavery’ out of our shopping baskets.Housing, Transport & Infrastructure* Analysis by Dileepa Fonseka for BusinessDesk-$: How rising house prices hurt productivity* Analysis by David Chaston for Interest: The big get bigger in the mortgage market* David Chaston for Interest: Three down, two to go Our largest home loan lender ANZ has now responded to the Westpac and BNZ fixed rate moves lower with their own mortgage rate cuts, leaving ASB and Kiwibank as the other majors yet to respond* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Are lower house prices really bad for the economy?* Alisha Evans for LDR via NZ Herald: Major Tauranga roading project set to go ahead without NZTA funding* Miriam Bell for The Post-$: What’s behind the demand for renovation work? Despite the cost of living, renovation work is dominating tradies’ calendars more than new builds. Councils* David Long for Stuff: ‘No respect for you’: rivals hammer Wayne Brown for missing first mayoral debateAuckland’s mayoral hopefuls lined up at the University of Auckland to share their visions — and take aim at an absent incumbent.* Libby Kirkby-McLeod for RNZ: Council spending won't be investigated by Auditor-General* Katie Todd for RNZ: Mayor warns of huge rates hike after council quits joint water planPoverty, Health, Education, Living Costs, Incomes & Crime* Susan Edmonds for RNZ: 'They suggested we wear more clothes': Households hit with huge power bills* Deep-dive by Mildred Armah for Stuff: She weighed 143kg and couldn’t afford surgery in NZ - so she went to India. Weight loss has been a constant struggle for Faren Ormond. Ineligible for publicly funded surgery in New Zealand, she found another option.* Shilpy Arora Gaikwad for Stuff: The $2.6b problem: Organised gangs drive ‘brazen and aggressive’ retail crime wave. Major retailers say it has become organised, aggressive and increasingly driven by gangs and repeat offenders who operate with growing coordination.* Caron Copek for Stuff: The global price of butter is coming down, so when will it get cheaper for us? The good news? The cost of a block of our country’s finest should fall for shoppers.* Adam Pearse for NZ Herald: Mike King’s role within Govt-funded charity I Am Hope unclear* Nikki Preston for OneRoof: Mike King is selling his home and stepping back from charity roleClimate & Environment* Katie Todd for RNZ: Locals range from curious to staunchly opposed on giant gold mine* RNZ: Penalties for breaching RMA hiked* Alice Peacock for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): NZers borrow over $1b in ‘green loans’ for heat pumps and electric cars* Op-Ed by Basil Sharp for Newsroom: How should NZ prepare for expected challenges of climate change? Making the consequences of climate change a matter of individual responsibility is disingenuousDocs of the Day* Samuel Sherry for NZ Herald: NZ housing affordability best since pre-Covid, Cotality report finds* Stats NZ data: Gender pay gap narrows to lowest on recordCartoon of the day: Helicopters vs hospitalsKa kite ano. Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Govt goes for growth by selling residencies

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Tuesday August 26, Wednesday, August 27, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: The Government has announced a new ‘Business Investor Visa’ (BIV) that awards residency to migrants who buy a business for at least $2 million, and a three-year fast-track work-to-residency for buyers of businesses worth over $1 million.* The Sidebar: The Government has yet to announce if these new BIV residents will be able to immediately buy homes, although the existing Active Investor Visa, which awards residency to business and bond investors putting in $5 million and $10 million respectively, is expected to be upgraded wit a right to buy homes within weeks.* The Quote of the Day: Auckland Chamber of Commerce CEO Simon Bridges has welcomed the news of the new BIV, saying: ‘It will really help Auckland’s economy, bringing in desperately needed cash.’* The Number of the day is ten-fold. That’s the amount home insurance premia have risen in the last 20 years. Consumer NZ called this morning for an official investigation into home insurance pricing. Interest* My Scoop of the day is by Derek Cheng for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): 'Rotten to the core': Govt banks $151m by ending ‘double-dipping’, wiping $100 a week for struggling households* My Deep-Dive of the day is from Laura Tupou for Stuff: Why information about hazard risks to your home is behind a paywallPaying subscribers get more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the video and podcast above. The email and video is sent later in the day to all subscribers and can then be read, watched and shared publicly.Quote of the day: ‘Excellent. We need the cash.’“It’s (BIV) and excellent addition to Active Investor Plus. Both policies will be real helpers to Auckland’s economy, which is behind other parts of the country, bringing in desperately needed cash. If Auckland were a business, it would have cashflow issues right now.” Auckland Chamber of Commerce CEO Simon Bridges via Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald.Number of the day: Ten foldChart of the day: Moar migration pleasePicks n’ Mixes for Wednesday, August 27Scoops & Breaking news this morning* Amy Williams for RNZ: Boarding house evicts 26 people with two days' notice* Thomas Manch & Kelly Dennett for The Post-$: Two-hour North to South Island ferry service? This consortium says yes. After Rail Minister Winston Peters said no, a consortium of iwi and global construction groups are taking their pitch to the national infrastructure fund* Mihingarangi Forbes for RNZ: Is the Ministry for Women about to vanish?* Catherine Hubbard for The Nelson Mail-$: Peanut butter boss hits out at supermarket ‘mafia cartel’ As Nelson-based Pic’s sells a majority stake to an Australian firm, both the founder and chief executive have hit out at the Kiwi supermarket duopoly: “I get the feeling that they think that any money that we make is money they’re not making.”* Reuters: Fed Governor Cook will sue to keep her job as Trump mulls replacement* The Daily Beast: Trump and RFK Jr. to Ban COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Within Months’Hot topics in the last dayNew Business Investor Visa* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald: This is not an Oprah-style, everyone gets a visa': Stanford on new investor visa as speculation rises over foreign buyer settings* RNZ: New visa for business investors launched* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald: New investor visa announced, speculation heats up over foreign buyer settings* Immigration Minister Erica Stanford release via Beehive: New Business Investor Visa to support growth. Immigration NZ releaseConsumer NZ report on home insurance* Mandy Te for Interest: Consumer NZ report highlights danger of New Zealanders losing access to insurance* Jenee Tibshraeny for NZ Herald: Are Aussie insurers ripping us off? Call made for more transparency over premiums* Doc: Consumer NZ release: Rising cost of insurance prompts call for action on affordability and climate risks and full report: Will you be able to get home insurance by 2035? How climate change is affecting your house and contents bill.The Best of the RestPolitics & Geopolitics* RNZ: Willis to make 'series of announcements' on supermarkets* Anusha Bradley for RNZ: Secrecy over private hospital contracts draws fire* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Are relationship property laws working?* 3News via Stuff: Justice Committee backs referendum on four year parliamentary term* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald-$: The city suffering as 177 businesses shut – does Nicola Willis accept any blame?* Interest: 'Practical changes': Revenue Minister introduces new tax billEconomy, Business, Media & Tech* Column by Craig Renney via his substack: On the cusp. Nearly there. All the time. Our recovery from the 2024 recession keeps being delayed* Column by Martien Lubberink via his blog: How Media Helps Banks Win While Claiming to Help Borrowers* David Hargreaves for Interest: Fonterra 'a much better business without Mainland Group', say analysts* Imogene Bedford for NZ Herald: 'Evolving challenges': Zespri announces significant job cuts* Column by Martien Lubberink via his blog: From Fortress to Mainstream: RBNZ Dials Back its Capital Ambitions* RNZ Morning Report: Trump tariffs make shipping to US 'complex' - NZ PostHousing, Transport & Infrastructure* Bernard Orsman for NZ Herald-$: 'Planning by firing squad': The Auckland suburbs facing three-storey housing* Column of the day: Hayden Donnell for The Spinoff: Newly sober nation begs for one more hit of high house prices. Please bro, just one more house price rise will fix it. I swear.* Lilian Hanley for RNZ: Government touts $30 billion increase in total value of infrastructure projects in last quarter* Mary Argue for RNZ: 'It really ruined me': Builder takes thousands and vanishes* Natasha Gordon for NZ Herald: 'Lives at risk': Union warns Aucklanders as only aerial fire truck fails* Interest: Big banks cut fixed mortgage rates, challenger banks go even lowerCouncils* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Airport defies council and grants itself wide-ranging building height powers.* Hamish McNeilly for Stuff: City cans plan to put cycleway through student quarter. * Ellen O’Dwyer for RNZ: Wellington Council reveals plan for Newtown* Andrew Ashton for ODT-$: Waitaki residents could lose homes over ‘astronomical’ jump in water charges to as high as $200 a month, Mayor says.* David Long for Stuff: Dust, trucks and fury: locals rage at giant dump plan* Ross McNaughton for RNZ: The battle against illegal parking on new bike pathPoverty, Health, Education, Living Costs, Incomes & Crime* Anneke Smith for RNZ: Lake Alice redress 'rotten to the core', court told* RNZ Morning Report: Elderly renters, women struggling with cost of living* Bella Craig for RNZ: Landlords accused of doing healthy homes checks themselves* RNZ: Parents say schools getting opening hours wrong for years* RNZ Nine to Noon: Carolyn Cooper says govt has no plan for ageing population* RNZ Nine to Noon: Huge unmet demand for hearing treatmentClimate & Environment* Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Will road user charges help or hurt the climate?* Jonathan Leask for LDR via Stuff: What does the future hold for the people who’ve made homes in this lakeside settlement? * Deep-dive by Paddy Gower for Stuff: The new Kiwi DIY: homeowners building walls around their property to keep rising water out* Deep-dive by Laura Tupou for Stuff: Why information about hazard risks to your home is behind a paywall* 3News via Stuff: House insurance bills soar, more ditch cover* Sharon Bretkelly for The Detail: An industry-killing crisis As the natural gas supply falls, a tomato grower fears for its future, and for growing food hereDocs of the Day* MSD Supplementary Analysis Report on Including Boarders’ Contributions in the Calculation of Housing Subsidies.* Westpac NZ special report by Satish Ranchod: Trading Places. Comparing economic conditions in New Zealand and Australia.* IRD announcement: New taxation Bill introduced* Te Waihanga-The Infrastructure Commission published its June quarter update of its Infrastructure Pipeline, showing a total of $17.5b in projected spend in calendar 2025, up $0.9b relative to the March 2025 update. The projected spend for calendar 2026 is currently forecast to fall to $16.6b. * Roy Morgan NZ survey showing collapse in print readership for Stuff titles.Timeline-cleansing nature pic Ka kite ano. Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

What Christopher Luxon is doing to ensure 'modest, consistent' house price inflation

Briefly in my Daily Chorus on Tuesday August 26, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: PM Christopher Luxon let slip yesterday he met with Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby last week just before the bank’s surprisingly dovish rate cut. Luxon told Hawkesby the central bank had been too slow to cut rates. He also welcomed the Reserve Bank’s proposals announced yesterday to loosen the capital requirements for bank lending, which could either ramp up lending into the housing market by as much as a further $175 billion, or allow the big banks to increase dividends to their Australian parents by up to $7 billion. (NZ Herald, NewstalkZB)* The Sidebar: Perhaps coincidentally, Luxon also said yesterday he wanted moderate and consistent rises in house prices, rather than the falls seen over the last year. His views clash with those of Housing & Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop, who reiterated last week via RNZ the Government’s aim was to drive down house prices and rents over the medium to long term. (Stuff, Interest)* The first Quote of the Day is from Chris Bishop: ‘The Government is trying over the medium to long term to drive house prices and rents down’* The second Quote of the Day is from Christopher Luxon: ‘We want to have modest, consistent house price increases. We’re focused on making houses more affordable. That means you need to have wages growing faster than house prices.”* My suggestion for Analysis of the day is Henry Cooke’s investigation via his substack Museum Street into which voters switched from Labour to National in 2023, and are trending away from the party now. Who are the voters swinging away from Christopher Luxon?* My suggestion for Must-Read Deep-Dive of the day is from Nicholas Jones at Stuff, documenting how a third-world-style syphillis epidemic has killed 12 babies in Auckland and Northland.Paying subscribers get more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the video and podcast above. It is sent later in the day to all subscribers.Quotes of the dayAsked if lower house prices were a good thing, Chris Bishop said:“Well, I think it is. We've got to decouple the idea that the New Zealand economy is driven by house prices. Actually, it's artificial wealth and real productive wealth comes not from house prices, but from investments in manufacturing and technology and other things that actually drive productivity growth and drive higher wages. “So I think it is. And that's partly what the government is trying to do over the medium to long term is to drive house prices down and also drive rents down.” Housing, Infrastructure & RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop being interviewed by Corin Dann on RNZ Morning Report on Friday. (Bolding mine)Asked if he agreed with Bishop, Christopher Luxon said:“Chris is right in the sense of we want to make sure we’ve got productive growth happening in the economy and how do you get better economic productivity into the New Zealand economy which has been a problem over 30 years.“If you don’t just want to drive an economy through immigration and house price inflation, we’ve really got to make sure we are creating a higher standard of living for people through a more productive economy. We want to be able to make sure that going forward that we have modest, consistent house price increases.”The Government was focused on housing becoming much more affordable, he said.“That means you need to have wages growing faster than house prices. We don't want our whole economic growth be driven by speculative house price inflation. We actually want it driven by productive growth.” PM Christopher Luxon being interviewed yesterday by Corin Dann on RNZ Morning Report. (bolding mine)Number of the day - Five percentage pointsFive - The Reserve Bank proposed a loosening of capital requirements for banks yesterday that it said would reduce their capital requirements relative to still-being-implemented 2019 reforms by around five percentage points, or $7 billion. If banks chose to use that extra capital to increase lending, that would imply up to an extra $175 billion of lending at current capital coverage ratios of 4-5%. If the banks chose instead to use the spare capital to bolster shareholder returns, they could increase dividends back to their Australian owners by up to $7 billion, implying a much larger current account deficit.Chart: Home loans up, while business & farm loans fallTimeline-cleansing nature pic Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The Weekly Hoon: Rate cut to Govt & economy's rescue?; Trump's capitulation; Helicopters instead homes

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics, climate change and the future of trade. This week’s special guest is Ganesh R Ahirao.This week’s Hoon featured:* A discussion between Peter and Bernard about homelessness and helicopters, along with RNZ’s pivot to focusing on older listeners and the SIS’s annual security report. We referred to an analysis by Sanjana Hattotuwa via BlueSky and his own wordpress post about how 10,000 public sector job cuts threaten New Zealand’s national and human security.* A discussion with Cathrine about new evidence of ice loss in the Arctic and Antarctic, gas shortages in Aotearoa and the Government’s decision announced yesterday to further loosen emissions standards for vehicle imports.* A discussion with Robert about Donald Trump’s ‘Alaska Catastrophe’ summit with Vladimir Putin, New Zealand’s purchase of helicopters and jets announced yesterday, and Israel’s imminent invasion of Gaza.* A discussion with Ganesh about the Reserve Bank’s decision this week to cut rates and promise more, the Government’s economic (non) strategy of relying on rate cuts and Treasury’s ‘Back to the Future’ Long Term Fiscal strategy document published last week that focused utterly on debt reduction. We referred to Ganesh R Ahirao’s substack post on the Government’s dismemberment of the public sector.The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards. (This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)Ngā mihi nui.Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Memo to PM: Your 'strategy' is not working

Briefly in my Daily Chorus for all subscribers on Monday August 18, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: Senior figures in the business community are openly questioning the Government’s 1991-style strategy of restraining Government spending to create space for lower interest rates to stimulate household spending and business investment. Via Amelia Wade for The Sunday Star Times-$* The Sidebar: That post-recession strategy worked in 1992, in 2002, in 2011 and 2016 because, back then, households had low debt, banks had lower capital requirements and fewer lending restrictions, and they still actively wanted to lend to businesses. Lower interest rates encouraged more borrowing and business investment, which in turn sparked jobs growth, wages growth and then fresh housing booms, pushing house prices and household wealth to ever-higher record highs.* The first Number of the Day: $165 billion. This time around, households are feeling collectively $165 billion poorer because of an extended 10-20% slump in house values and ongoing increases in mortgage borrowing from first home buyers in particular. Also, unlike in previous recoveries from recessions, real disposable incomes for most workers who spend most of their incomes are falling again, thanks to wage restraint, fewer hours worked and new profit-driven inflation in food and electricity prices.* The second Number of the Day: 3.5 percentage points. That’s the amount of bank capital requirement increases yet to be implemented and now under active review by the Reserve Bank. Cancelling the increase would be one obvious way for the Government to give a boost to mortgage lending in the next year.* The Quote of the day is from Auckland Chamber of Commerce CEO Simon Bridges via Amelia Wade for the Sunday Star Times-$ on business leaders losing faith in Christopher Luxon: “We don’t want to leave it to chance. A few more bad months after a few bad years isn’t good enough. I think there should be an urgency in government around intervention.”* The Chart of the Day shows household term deposits are growing again at record-high rates of $17 billion a year, which is as high as when small business-owning recipients were banking the proceeds from wage subsidies. Contrary to the drumbeat of the daily news narrative that everyone is suffering with a ‘cost of living crisis’, the chart shows older homeowners are repaying debt and saving the benefits of tax changes at record-high rates into term deposit accounts, which is holding back consumer spending and extending the retail sector’s four-year long recession.Paying subscribers can always hear more detail and my commentary in my Daily Chorus podcast and video above and in text and chart form below the paywall fold, while non-paying subscribers just get this opening brief intro. But I have decided to release this immediately to all, given the topicality of the questions about the Government’s strategy.Chart of the day: Not everyone is doing it toughCartoons of the dayHoping voters can’t see or hear what’s happening in the economyRare actual footage of a doormat rolling out a carpetTimeline-cleansing nature picKa kite ano. Bernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe