Hedgeye Podcasts

The Five Follies Investors Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 23

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and David Salem reunite for a wide-ranging market roundtable built around David’s “five follies” framework. With U.S. markets near all-time highs and the domestic setup still broadly bullish, the group debates the risks investors may be underestimating beneath the surface.Topics include the Iran conflict, energy positioning, resource nationalism, global supply-chain fragility, dollar weakness, Fed credibility and the limits of trying to control inflation with blunt tools. The conversation then shifts to AI, where the team digs into open versus closed models, hyperscaler CapEx, cloud economics, compute capacity, security risks and whether today’s spending boom will earn returns above its rising cost of capital. It’s a thoughtful look at markets, geopolitics and technology through a risk-first lens00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:17 Markets Near Highs & the Bullish U.S. Setup 02:58 David Salem’s “Five Follies” Framework 08:46 Energy Positioning & the Iran Conflict 11:06 Resource Wars, Hormuz & the Red Sea 17:24 Dollar Weakness, Allies & a Fragmenting World Order 24:26 The Fed, Inflation & the Limits of Control 29:07 Treasury Intervention, Japan & the Yen Carry Trade 36:59 Open vs. Closed AI Models 38:36 Hyperscaler CapEx, Cloud Economics & Compute Risk 51:55 Cybersecurity, Cost of Capital & AI FollyHedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Lunch Break with Keith & Steve | Financial Media Has Japan Dead Wrong

On Friday afternoon, after US equity markets closed, the United States government bought Japanese yen for the first time in twenty-eight years.And every explanation we've seen from the mainstream media looks like fish floundering. So Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough called the money doctor. Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins has spent forty years watching governments try to outsmart currency markets, and he does not grade on a curve."Not only the analysts, but the financial press just have Japan completely wrong, and they've had it wrong for a long time." — Steve HankeIn a new (hopefully) regular segment, Keith and Steve discuss the topics that Wall Street and its media are missing - or getting dead wrong.

The Outsider's Edge: Why the Smart Money Is Trapped in a Box | Protect the Pile Episode 22 w/ Nick Nemeth

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information00:00 — Welcome to Protect the Pile01:01 — Meet Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets02:43 — 20 years in markets at 31: Nick's origin story06:11 — The open letter to Secretary Bessent11:43 — GFC flashback: no adults in the room16:22 — "Loans are bad the day you write them"20:41 — The AI CapEx problem: who actually builds the data centers?30:16 — Small caps and the experience-economy trade39:36 — Bank shots: Vertiv, Quanta, and letting winners run44:36 — The insurance time bomb: bigger than 2008? Twenty years in the markets at just 31, no college degree, and a Substack that climbed to 18,000 followers on the back of one open letter to the Treasury. This week on Protect the Pile, Patrick Kent flies solo with Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets — the self-taught generalist sounding the alarm on the leverage buried inside private credit and the life insurance industry. They dig into why he thinks the next crisis could dwarf 2008, why AI CapEx can't keep compounding at 20%, and how "functionally fake" wealth is propping up housing and credit. Along the way: hunting overlooked small caps, the experience-economy trade, and the bank-shot winners most investors missed. A no-nonsense conversation about where the real risk — and the real opportunity — is hiding. Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

The Fed's Next Punch in the Mouth | Protect the Pile Episode 21 w/ Danielle DiMartino Booth

Visit HedgeyeAM.com for more information00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile with Danielle DiMartino Booth02:01 The Fed’s “Punched in the Mouth” Moment04:34 Kevin Warsh, Fed Independence & the Next Market Test06:12 Commercial Real Estate, Credit Risk & 2026–2027 Maturities08:03 The Fed’s Ambiguous Mandate10:21 Is the Fed Fighting the Wrong Inflation War?14:29 Can Kevin Warsh Actually Change the Fed?18:15 The New “Too Big to Fail” Problem23:25 Fixing the Fed’s Broken Data Problem31:35 Real-Time Inflation Data & the Fed’s Framework40:18 AI, Accounting Games & the Integrity of Earnings47:06 The Fed Chair Who Got It RightOn this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright break down a summer market that keeps defying the noise. With the S&P 500 up double digits, small caps suddenly outperforming and the Mag 7 barely positive on the year, the group debates whether the market’s leadership is truly broadening or just rotating through crowded trades.They dig into early earnings season signals from banks, healthcare, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, including the warning sign of stocks failing to rally on strong numbers. The conversation also tackles global dollar liquidity, Korea’s leverage unwind, Meta’s AI strategy, hyperscaler spending, model commoditization and whether AI’s real value will show up in applications rather than raw compute. It’s a timely check-in on what’s working, what’s crowded and what could crack next.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.

Ep.141 Real Conversations | Rising Geostrategic Risk: The New Rules for Global Markets w/ John O’Connor

***This webcast originally aired live on Hedgeye.com on July 22, 2026***The age of frictionless globalization is over. Investors are now operating in a world where geopolitical conflict, national security policy, supply-chain control and technology leadership can move markets as much as earnings, rates or inflation. For decades, investors benefited from a world shaped by globalization, open supply chains, low-friction trade and the steady expansion of market-cap weighted benchmarks.  That world is giving way to something more complex. Geopolitical conflict, strategic competition, supply-chain vulnerability, technology leadership and national security policy are now direct inputs into the investment process. Hedgeye Founder and CEO Keith McCullough will host a new Real Conversation with John O’Connor, Chairman and CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management. The discussion will focus on how investors should think about geostrategic risk in today’s market environment. Keith and John will examine why yesterday’s benchmark construction may not fully account for today’s risks, how geopolitical exposure can show up inside major public companies and why critical technologies are becoming a central battleground for capital, policy and national security. Visit Hedgeye.com for more great investing content.Hedgeye Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's long-awaited new book, “Master The Market” is available now! In this 52-page e-book, Keith McCullough distills decades of Wall Street experience into actionable insights. Discover how to navigate market cycles, avoid major losses, and invest with the confidence of a seasoned pro. Download your free copy right now. Go to Hedgeye.com/book. That’s Hedgeye.com/book. Get an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.