Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil

Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being  The Great Global Transformation. In this podcast, we discuss: The Shift to National Market Liberalism The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China The Rise of "Homoplutia" The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology India's Alternative Development Model Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart" Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI's Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits

Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing

Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society.  The Collapse of Neoliberalism The "Market Humanism" Synthesis From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens Markets as Evolutionary Engines Value as Problem-Solving The Structural Reality of Inequality "Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth The State as a Market Shaper Macrocosm: Modelling the Economy with AI Human Skills in the Age of AI