Explaining History

The End of NATO?

What happens if NATO collapses—or if the United States simply walks away? In this episode, we speculate on a future that feels closer than ever. With the Trump administration openly hostile to the alliance and European allies refusing to be dragged into an illegal war in the Persian Gulf, the post-WW2 transatlantic bargain is coming undone.We go back to the beginning: why NATO was founded to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and the Americans in. From Ernest Bevin’s Britain to the Truman Doctrine and the birth of Atlanticism, we trace how the alliance shaped the Cold War world. Then we ask the hard questions: Would a US withdrawal trigger a new European defense order? Could Russia really rebuild its empire? And what happens to American power, intelligence sharing, and the arms industry when the nuclear umbrella is gone?This is not a prediction—it’s a necessary speculation. The world at the end of the 2020s will look nothing like the one we entered. And the biggest winner of all might just be China.Welcome back to the *Explaining History Podcast*.Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.▸ Support the Show & Get Exclusive ContentBecome a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory▸ Join the Community & Continue the ConversationFacebook Group: facebook.com/groups/ExplainingHistoryPodcastSubstack: theexplaininghistorypodcast.substack.com▸ Read Articles & Go DeeperWebsite: explaininghistory.org Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Petitions, protests and the Mandate System 1919-21

It's all too easy, when reading history, to see the world through the eyes of the coloniser rather than the colonised. The mandate system—the League of Nations framework through which Britain and France claimed legitimacy for their post-war territorial grabs—is often presented as a progressive innovation: a move from old-fashioned colonialism to enlightened trusteeship. But what did it look like from the perspective of those who suddenly found themselves under new rulers?Drawing on Susan Pedersen's extraordinary book *The Guardians*, we explore how the mandate system was intended to serve multiple, often contradictory purposes. For the victorious imperial powers, it was a tool to legitimate the territorial settlement agreed at Paris in 1919. For internationalists and League officials, it was a mechanism for spreading norms about trusteeship and the open door. For the people of Cameroon, Togo, Samoa, South West Africa, and the Arab provinces of the former Ottoman Empire, it was something simpler: a shameless betrayal of the promises of self-determination made when the Allies had their backs to the wall.We examine the petition process that emerged despite the explicit intentions of the mandate's architects. Neither the Covenant nor the mandate texts made any provision for petitioning; when the Milner Commission drafted the texts in 1919, all members save the American George Louis Beer agreed that allowing inhabitants to appeal to an international body would make "all administration impossible." Yet a petition process arose anyway—the achievement of thousands of men and women who, often at considerable risk, raised their voices against the new dispensation.We trace the path of those petitions: from West Africa, where Douala elites protested the transfer of their territories from British to French control; to Geneva, where William Rappard of the League Secretariat found himself sympathising with exiled Arab nationalists; to the corridors of power where Sir Eric Drummond, the League's Secretary-General, did everything possible to suppress these inconvenient voices.And we meet the figures who made the system work despite itself: J.H. Harris of the Anti-Slavery Society, who used his platform in *The Times* and *The Manchester Guardian* to amplify African grievances; Ormsby Gore, who argued that if a resident of a British colony could appeal to the Privy Council, surely an inhabitant of a mandated territory should be able to appeal to the League; and Rappard, who quietly circumvented his obstructive chief to raise the matter of petitions at the Permanent Mandates Commission's very first session.The story is one of imperial hubris, international idealism, and the unplanned emergence of a mechanism through which colonised peoples learned to claim that they too were nations deserving to be heard. It is also a story that challenges our conventional understanding of when and how the League of Nations failed.Topics covered:- The mandate system as imperial legitimation- Wilsonian internationalism vs. Anglo-French imperialism- The promise of self-determination and its betrayal- The petition process and its unplanned origins- West African resistance to partition- The Syrio-Palestinian Congress and Arab nationalist mobilisation- William Rappard and the conscience of the League- Sir Eric Drummond's obstructionism- The Permanent Mandates Commission's first session- Rethinking the failure of the League of Nations from a colonised perspective---Susan Pedersen's The Guardians is the best book on the mandate system I have ever read—a work of extraordinary scholarship that recovers the voices of those too often silenced in the archives.If you enjoy the podcast, please consider supporting us. We're migrating from Patreon to Substack—more details soon.Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.▸ Support the Show & Get Exclusive ContentBecome a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory▸ Join the Community & Continue the ConversationFacebook Group: facebook.com/groups/ExplainingHistoryPodcastSubstack: theexplaininghistorypodcast.substack.com▸ Read Articles & Go DeeperWebsite: explaininghistory.org Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Birth of the Multipolar Order and the "Evisceration" of the West

Host: NickEpisode OverviewIn this somber and reflective episode, Nick steps away from traditional historical narratives to analyze what he believes is a pivotal, "apocalyptic" turning point in the 21st century. Drawing on the concept of "Westlessness," Nick argues that current tensions in the Persian Gulf and the shifting political landscape in the United States signal the definitive end of Western hegemony and the violent birth of a truly multipolar world.Key Themes and Discussion PointsThe Concept of "Westlessness": Nick revisits the ideas of Dr. Samir Puri, discussing the relative rebalancing of world power. He suggests that we are moving past a world where Western liberal democracy and free markets are hegemonic, entering an era where they are merely one of many competing influences.The First War of the Multipolar Order: Nick posits that the current situation in the Persian Gulf represents a tipping point. He argues that powers like Iran and China represent forces that the United States can no longer "bomb into submission," marking a limit to Western hard power.The Moral Decline of Western Institutions: The episode explores the perceived "discrediting" of international law. Nick argues that Western complicity in global conflicts and the failure to uphold the rights of refugees and international borders has stripped the West of its moral authority in the eyes of the Global South.The Internal Western "Civil War": Nick identifies a structural conflict between two elite factions:The Traditional "Brahmin" Elite: The neoliberal political class (Reagan/Thatcher consensus) that has overseen mass privatization and social stagnation.The Insurgent Populist Elite: Figures like Trump, Orbán, and Netanyahu, who weaponize cultural grievances to build coalitions while dismantling democratic checks and balances.The Rise of "Pax Sinica": While the West is mired in "never-ending wars" and internal discord, Nick points to China’s strategic patience. He speculates that we may see a future where Europe—feeling abandoned or exploited by a Trump-led America—pivots toward Beijing to connect "Brussels to Beijing" in a new economic reality.Notable Quote"We are witnessing... one of the key pivotal moments of the 21st century, a moment for which I think whatever happens next, there's no coming back from where we're at."Final ThoughtsNick concludes the episode with a stark outlook for the 21st century, predicting a diminished and poorer America and Europe. He promises to return to "proper history" in the next episode but emphasizes the necessity of reflecting on these historic shifts as they happen in real-time.Links & Resources mentioned:Westlessness by Dr. Samir Puri.The Explaining History website (for ad-free content and ethical streaming options).Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.▸ Support the Show & Get Exclusive ContentBecome a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory▸ Join the Community & Continue the ConversationFacebook Group: facebook.com/groups/ExplainingHistoryPodcastSubstack: theexplaininghistorypodcast.substack.com▸ Read Articles & Go DeeperWebsite: explaininghistory.org Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump's self created gulf trap

In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we continue our examination of the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf—a crisis that has now reached a point where the world may already be past the threshold of avoiding a major economic recession, perhaps even a depression.The situation is grim. Trump, through a combination of staggering incompetence and hubris, has launched America into a conflict it cannot win. The proposed invasion of Kharg Island—Iran's largest refinery—would not bring the Iranians to the negotiating table. It would do what Operation Rolling Thunder and the bombing of North Korea failed to do: it would harden Iranian resolve, because for the regime, this is existential.I explore the historical precedents. The Dardanelles campaign of 1915 shows what happens when great powers attempt to force narrow waterways defended by determined opponents. British and French ships were sunk by mines and coastal batteries; the naval approach was abandoned. The Straits of Hormuz are narrower than the Dardanelles. Any warship that sails through them today would likely be sunk before sunset—not by shore batteries, but by swarms of cheap drones.This is the great inflection point of 21st century warfare. A few hundred drones launched at a carrier group can overwhelm its defensive systems. The era of the aircraft carrier as the unchallenged tool of world order is ending. China has been signalling this for years with its spectacular drone displays over Beijing. The message is clear: "Imagine what we can do if we attach something to them."The geopolitical consequences are already unfolding. Europe is rapidly rapproaching with Russia to secure energy supplies. The Ukraine war will likely be settled in Russia's favour. The special relationship between Britain and America is dying—Rachel Reeves, the British Chancellor, choosing Ursula von der Leyen over Trump was a signal that the political class has finally understood that clinging to American coat-tails no longer offers protection, only entanglement.And then there is Israel. Netanyahu, facing inevitable legal consequences, has a vested interest in perpetual conflict. He has found in Trump a president of almost unimaginable incompetence—one who surrounds himself with informal advisors, ignores professional intelligence, and has torn apart the State Department. This is the gangster state model: don't trust the clever people, because clever people find ways to outwit thugs.Trump is now trapped in a lose-lose scenario. Either he escalates—leading to a Vietnam-style war of attrition that will destroy him and the global economy—or he retreats on Iranian terms. The Iranians will extract very painful concessions: American withdrawal from the Gulf, reparations, a levy on Gulf shipping that will make them extraordinarily wealthy.This is how empires decline. Not through sudden collapse, but through catastrophic blunders that reveal the limits of power. The Dardanelles, Suez, Vietnam—and now the Straits of Hormuz. Trump will go down in history as the most incompetent US president, but his place in the history books will be secured not by his crimes or his attempted coup, but by the gift he has given Iran: a humiliation that dwarfs 1979.Topics covered:The economic consequences of the Gulf crisisThe proposed invasion of Kharg Island and its strategic impossibilityThe Dardanelles campaign as historical precedentDrones and the end of the aircraft carrier eraEurope's rapprochement with RussiaThe death of the special relationshipNetanyahu's interest in perpetual conflictTrump's informal, de-professionalised decision-makingThe gangster state model and its historical parallelsIran's potential terms for ending the conflictExplaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.▸ Support the Show & Get Exclusive ContentBecome a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory▸ Join the Community & Continue the ConversationFacebook Group: facebook.com/groups/ExplainingHistoryPodcastSubstack: theexplaininghistorypodcast.substack.com▸ Read Articles & Go DeeperWebsite: explaininghistory.org Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are We Already in World War III?

Description:In this episode, Nick explores a question currently weighing on the minds of historians and observers alike: are we witnessing the opening stages of a third global conflict? Drawing on the work of Richard Overy and examining the "quasi-peace" of the 20th century, Nick argues that our definitions of "World War" may be too narrow, often ignoring the unrelenting conflict experienced by the Global South since 1945.We delve into the "hollowing out" of the American economic imperium—a transition from the industrial powerhouse of the Eisenhower era to a financialized economy struggling with internal stagnation. Nick compares the relative decline of the United States to Britain’s post-war trajectory, examining how the rise of China as a strategic, state-planned power has fundamentally broken the neoliberal order of the 1990s. From the resource-driven proxy wars in Venezuela and Iran to the looming shadow of the Taiwan Strait, we ask: can a "Great Power settlement" be reached, or are we destined for a generational period of violent transition?Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.▸ Support the Show & Get Exclusive ContentBecome a Patron: patreon.com/explaininghistory▸ Join the Community & Continue the ConversationFacebook Group: facebook.com/groups/ExplainingHistoryPodcastSubstack: theexplaininghistorypodcast.substack.com▸ Read Articles & Go DeeperWebsite: explaininghistory.org Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.