Key Wealth Matters

A Round Robin for the Dog Days of Summer

This week was lighter on economic news and reporting—certainly when compared to the previous two action-packed weeks—so we’re shaking things up for this episode. Each expert brings to the table a news item that caught his eye this week, and one topic that might not be receiving enough attention. Topics include skyrocketing investment into artificial intelligence, the fractures at the Federal Reserve (see Additional Resources below for a link to past guest Cynthia Honcharenko’s take on the interesting dynamics taking place at the Fed), turmoil in the gold market, the changing demographics of the labor market amid evolving ways and means of working, and more. Wishing a happy International Beer Day and National Pickleball Day to those who celebrate; maybe not at the same time. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:23 – The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index—a measure of the health of the U.S. services sector—dipped to 50.1 in July, down from June’s 50.8. 02:42 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 were up 7,000 claims from the previous week, for a total of 226,000 initial claims.03:32 – Investment in AI technologies exceeded $150 billion in the first half of the year, which may contribute to the increasing productivity in the workforce as measured by recent average revenue per employee figures.05:52 – The Fed continues to fracture amid a surprise appointment of a temporary Fed governor to fill a recently-vacated seat. 07:28 – The ups and downs of Trump’s order to allow private equity investment in 401 (k) retirement plans.08:40 – China is mentioned less in the news these days, but that doesn’t mean nothing newsworthy is happening there. Portfolio diversification through international markets is a good idea, and there’s some potential in the Chinese markets.10:17 – A discussion on the turmoil in the gold markets on news of a 39% import tax on some gold coming into the U.S.13:45 – With an outsized population of retirees on the horizon, and a new generation coming into the workforce with a very different jobs landscape, what’s the future of productivity?15:02 – Diversification is the sound investment strategy for the day. We’re seeing some softness in the labor market, but most economic indicators are favorable. Still, things can be unpredictable, and a diversified portfolio can shield you from some targeted disruptions.  Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Cracks in the Foundation: Symbolic or Systemic? Fed Unity Frays as Policy Dissonance Grows.Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Woes and Whoas: Fallout From the July FOMC

In this week's episode, we discuss eight reports and news items that are impacting the economy today, and which will likely have lingering effects into the future; these touch on the labor market in regard to unemployment and payrolls, housing, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), earnings season, and – the big news of the week – what came out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the lower than expected new non-farm payroll report. As always, we analyze these items and how they’re affecting the equity and bond markets, and what moves investors may consider making.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management 01:47 – We introduce the eight topics and reports that lay the groundwork for our discussion: weekly initial unemployment claims, job openings, existing home sales, GDP for Q2:2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, the jobs report showing underwhelming numbers for new nonfarm payrolls, a negative revision for the May and June figures, and a slight bump in overall unemployment, the FOMC meeting, and news from the midst of earning season.06:30 – The big items from the FOMC: rates remain unchanged, two governors voice dissent, and no firm commitment on a September rate cut. The reasoning behind the continued fed funds rate is that inflation is still elevated, the labor market is robust, unemployment remains low, and inflationary pressures persist due to trade uncertainties.07:42 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell touched on 7 themes during the post-meeting press conference: no rate cuts, monetary policy is restrictive, pressure from tariffs, conflicting pressures between inflation and the labor market, market pricing recalibration, Fed independence in rate setting in light of government borrowing costs, and acknowledging the notable dual dissents within the FOMC meeting.09:35 – The likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to 39% at the time of the FOMC meeting, with a fourth quarter cut more likely. The dissent from governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman seems less politically motivated than borne out of genuine care for the labor market.12:38 – The labor market is stable but might be starting to show some cracks signaling a potential slowdown as layoffs are low but so is hiring.17:01 – The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy, rose slightly following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, then dropped significantly today in reaction to this morning’s jobs report – the biggest such reaction since 2004. Given this volatility, expectations of a September rate cut are now increasing.20:07 – Shifting tariffs and trade policy seem to be hitting the stock market this week, with falling copper futures as a notable example. 21:16 – The Trump administration’s recent pushback against Powell’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts appears prescient given the market reaction to today’s lukewarm jobs report. There’s now a higher chance of a Powell resignation as a Fed governor rather than finishing out his full term, after a potential replacement as the sitting Fed Chair.24:14 – As earnings season continues, major tech companies are showing mixed results, with Microsoft and Meta reporting favorably in contrast to lackluster reports from Amazon and Apple.Additional ResourcesRead: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” That Will Impact Businesses?Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

The Deep Summer Economy: Feels So Good or On a Crazy Train?

In this week's episode, we review the unemployment and home sales figures that were released this week, as well as the ongoing trade tensions and tariff negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. We also touch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and President Trump’s visit to tour the renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Lastly, we look into the performance of the stock market, including the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, a new round of corporate earnings, and the resurgence of "meme stocks."Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:47 – The initial unemployment claims report showed a decline, indicating a robust employment market. However, existing home sales fell due to higher mortgage rates.02:35 – The European Central Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, which could be an indirect factor in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. President Trump also visited the Federal Reserve and spoke with Chair Jerome Powell.03:52 – Regarding tariffs, the U.S. reached a tentative agreement with Japan to lower tariff rates, which was seen as positive news. However, the overall tariff rate remains elevated compared to the beginning of the year.07:58 – A discussion on the resilience of the economy, with corporate earnings exceeding expectations and the labor market remaining healthy. They also noted some potential headwinds, such as policy uncertainty and the potential for market volatility as we head into autumn. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' that Will Impact Individuals?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

The Magnificent 7 (Months of 2025)

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump’s desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump’s ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week’s economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week’s rumors of Powell’s potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon’s presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Recap of Our 2025 Outlook Now that We Are at Mid-year

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims. 03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private BankBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn