Learning Bayesian Statistics

#153 The Neuroscience of Philanthropy, with Cherian Koshy

• Support & get perks!• Bayesian Modeling course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Takeaways:Q: Is generosity a natural human trait?A: Yes, generosity is hardwired in our brains and is essential for social interaction.Q: Why do people say they care about causes but not act on it?A: There is often a disconnect between stated care for causes and actual action. Understanding the conditions under which generosity aligns with a person's identity is crucial for bridging this gap.Q: How should fundraising efforts be approached?A: Fundraising should primarily focus on belief updating rather than mere persuasion.Q: What are the benefits of being generous?A: Generosity has significant mental and physical health benefits, as the brain's reward systems activate when we give, making us feel good.Q: How do our beliefs relate to our actions?A: Our beliefs about ourselves strongly influence our actions and decisions, including our decision to be generous.Q: Can generosity impact a community?A: Yes, generosity can be a powerful tool for improving community dynamics.Q: How can technology like AI assist institutions with donors?A: AI could help institutions remember donors better, improving the donor-institution relationship.Chapters:00:00 What's the role of Behavioral Science inPhilanthropy19:57 What is The Neuroscience of Generosity?24:40 How can we best understand Donor Decision-Making?32:14 How can we achieve reframe Beliefs and Actions?35:39 What is the role of Identity in Habit Formation?38:06 What is the Generosity Gap in Philanthropy?45:06 How can we reduce Friction in Donation Processes?48:27 What is the role of AI and Trust in Nonprofits?52:11 How can we build Predictive Models for Donor Behavior?55:41 What is the role of Empathy in Sales and Stakeholder Engagement?01:00:46 How can we best align ideas with Stakeholder Beliefs?01:02:06 How can we explore Generosity and Memory?Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/Bayesian workflow agent skillNeurogiving, The Science of Donor Decision-MakingCherian's websiteCherian's press kitLBS #89 Unlocking the Science of Exercise, Nutrition & Weight Management, with Eric Trexler

Bitesize | How To Model Risk Aversion In Pricing?

Today's clip is from Episode 152 of the podcast, with Daniel Saunders. In this conversation, Daniel Saunders explains how to incorporate risk aversion into Bayesian price optimization. The key insight is that uncertainty around expected profit is asymmetric across price points, low prices yield more predictable (if modest) returns, while high prices introduce much wider uncertainty. Rather than simply maximizing expected profit, you can pass profit through an exponential utility function that models diminishing returns, a well-established idea from economics. This adds an adjustable risk aversion parameter to the optimization: as risk aversion increases, the model shifts toward more conservative price recommendations, trading off potentially large but uncertain gains for outcomes with tighter, more reliable distributions.Get the full discussion here• Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

#152 A Bayesian decision theory workflow, with Daniel Saunders

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 The Importance of Decision-Making in Data Science06:41 From Philosophy to Bayesian Statistics14:57 The Role of Soft Skills in Data Science18:19 Understanding Decision Theory Workflows22:43 Shifting Focus from Accuracy to Business Value26:23 Leveraging PyTensor for Optimization34:27 Applying Optimal Decision-Making in Industry40:06 Understanding Utility Functions in Regulation41:35 Introduction to Obeisance Decision Theory Workflow42:33 Exploring Price Elasticity and Demand45:54 Optimizing Profit through Bayesian Models51:12 Risk Aversion and Utility Functions57:18 Advanced Risk Management Techniques01:01:08 Practical Applications of Bayesian Decision-Making01:06:54 Future Directions in Bayesian Inference01:10:16 The Quest for Better Inference Algorithms01:15:01 Dinner with a Polymath: Herbert SimonThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026! https://www.fieldofplay.co.uk/A Bayesian decision theory workflowDaniel's website, LinkedIn and GitHubLBS #124 State Space Models & Structural Time Series, with Jesse GrabowskiLBS #123 BART & The Future of Bayesian Tools, with Osvaldo MartinLBS #74 Optimizing NUTS and Developing the ZeroSumNormal Distribution, with Adrian SeyboldtLBS #76 The Past, Present & Future of Stan, with Bob Carpenter

BITESIZE | How Do Diffusion Models Work?

Today's clip is from Episode 151 of the podcast, with Jonas ArrudaIn this conversation, Jonas Arruda explains how diffusion models generate data by learning to reverse a noise process. The idea is to start from a simple distribution like Gaussian noise and gradually remove noise until the target distribution emerges. This is done through a forward process that adds noise to clean parameters and a backward process that learns how to undo that corruption. A noise schedule controls how much noise is added or removed at each step, guiding the transformation from pure randomness back to meaningful structure.Get the full discussion here• Join this channel to get access to perks:https://www.patreon.com/c/learnbayesstats• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free): https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !

151 Diffusion Models in Python, a Live Demo with Jonas Arruda

• Support & get perks!• Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs! Get in touch at alex.andorra@pymc-labs.com• Intro to Bayes and Advanced Regression courses (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !Chapters:00:00 Exploring Generative AI and Scientific Modeling10:27 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Applications15:59 Diffusion Models in Simulation-Based Inference19:22 Live Coding Session: Implementing Baseflow for SBI34:39 Analyzing Results and Diagnostics in Simulation-Based Inference46:18 Hierarchical Models and Amortized Bayesian Inference48:14 Understanding Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) and Its Importance49:14 Diving into Diffusion Models: Basics and Mechanisms50:38 Forward and Backward Processes in Diffusion Models53:03 Learning the Score: Training Diffusion Models54:57 Inference with Diffusion Models: The Reverse Process57:36 Exploring Variants: Flow Matching and Consistency Models01:01:43 Benchmarking Different Models for Simulation-Based Inference01:06:41 Hierarchical Models and Their Applications in Inference01:14:25 Intervening in the Inference Process: Adding Constraints01:25:35 Summary of Key Concepts and Future DirectionsThank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!Links from the show:- Come meet Alex at the Field of Play Conference in Manchester, UK, March 27, 2026!- Jonas's Diffusion for SBI Tutorial & Review (Paper & Code)- The BayesFlow Library- Jonas on LinkedIn- Jonas on GitHub- Further reading for more mathematical details: Holderrieth & Erives- 150 Fast Bayesian Deep Learning, with David Rügamer, Emanuel Sommer & Jakob Robnik- 107 Amortized Bayesian Inference with Deep Neural Networks, with Marvin Schmitt