The Political Risk Podcast

Active Assailant Risk: Data Demands to Underwrite a Deadly Peril

A special episode exploring the rise of active assailant risk and the growing demand for data-driven underwriting in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Joshua Watson, senior underwriter, war and terrorism, North America, at Markel International, joins Gamze Tekin, senior product owner at Concirrus, to examine how this peril has moved to the forefront of crisis management and political violence insurance.The discussion explores what makes active assailant risk distinct, from its frequency characteristics to its human and financial impact. Active assailant is a peril on the rise, with protection gaps facing corporate buyers, near-daily incidents taking place, and changing US state regulation on workplace violence.Conversation turns to the underwriting challenges for a peril that is far removed from physical damage focus of most PV perils. Additional challenges include managing aggregation and portfolio exposure, and the limits of traditional data when assessing fast-moving, unpredictable threats.The final section focuses on closing the data gap, from real-time risk visibility to AI-enabled underwriting tools designed to support better decision-making in complex scenarios. With attacks increasing, particularly in the US, this episode unpacks why active assailant risk is becoming one of the most pressing and technically challenging areas in specialty insurance today.

War and terrorism: an integrated approach to claims and underwriting; with LSM's Sarah Howell & Jennie Beard

War, political violence and terrorism demand close coordination between underwriting and claims teams – particularly when geopolitical crises escalate quickly. In this special episode, Sarah Howell, head of first party claims, and Jennie Beard, underwriting manager, war and terrorism, Liberty Specialty Markets, discuss how collaboration works in practice, drawing on experience managing global a portfolio and responding to major loss events. The conversation explores lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, how insurers are adapting processes, the use of open-source intelligence for loss adjusting, and the creation of a Lloyd’s Market Association claims coordination group.

Middle East update and the evolution of Credit and Political Risk Insurance, with BPL's James Esdaile

The rapidly evolving Middle East crisis forms the start of this conversation with James Esdaile, executive chairman of BPL, examining the immediate implications for insurance markets since the US and Israel began military operations against Iran on Saturday. The interview that follows explores the evolution of credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) and standalone political risk insurance (PRI), different products typically for different buyers with different motivations. Esdaile reflects on his nearly three decades in the market, from joining BPL as a graduate trainee and rising to the top of the dedicated CPRI/PRI insurance broker. Along the way, the conversation touches on geopolitical drivers, expropriation risk, resource nationalism, and Venezuela as another political risk crisis case study to watch.

Political violence broking and multinational client strategy in a complex threat environment, with Price Forbes’ Cosmo Warner

Political violence entered 2026 in an increasingly complex risk environment and a highly competitive insurance market. Cosmo Warner, director, war, terrorism and political violence at Price Forbes, reflects on recent renewals and what they reveal about the state of the market. The conversation explores how London’s specialty market is balancing soft pricing with emerging loss activity and shifting client expectations. We examine demand dynamics within multinational portfolios, why London remains the pre-eminent hub for PV, and where competitive pressures could begin to erode that position. Recent claims activity is assessed, including how underwriters are reacting to soft pricing and the flow of information when losses occur. Discussion turns to multinational client strategy: how to avoid gaps and duplication between terrorism, political violence and property programmes; and how buyers can use current conditions to strengthen resilience before the cycle inevitably turns.

Political Risk and Violence Intelligence: Turning Signals into Structured Peril Insights

Canongate AI is a new political risk and political violence intelligence solution that converts millions of geopolitical inputs into structured intelligence for underwriters. Already deployed by specialty insurers, the platform provides underwriters and analysts with a clear, structured view of the geopolitical landscape, distilled by AI, from what would otherwise be an overwhelming flow of raw information.Tim Hurst, Canongate AI’s co-founder and chief technology officer, is joined by James Newport, executive director of forecasting advisory the Swift Centre, for this special episode, to explain how Canongate ingests millions of documents from government sources, corporates, trade unions, NGOs and others, turning these signals into territory and peril specific insights, making sense of a volatile world.